Monday, July 5, 2010

Early 2011 Prospect Lists:

The 2011 NBA Draft is 353 days away (thanks, but that doesn't mean initial lists can't be made. Now, I'm not making a Big Board until the season gets much closer and I can find more stuff on the incoming freshman, but this will serve as sort of a "Watch List" for the upcoming season. I have the guys ranked in their potential NBA positions, and next to their names have schools and all class.

Below the fold will be the five lists...

Saturday, July 3, 2010

Post 2010 Draft Analysis:

Obviously talent is a big factor in a player's success, but finding the right situation is also highly influential in how a player's career starts out. Below the fold will be who I think the winners and losers are in terms of the situation they landed in.

Thursday, June 24, 2010

2010 NBA Draft - Mock Draft (Final)

It's time for my final mock draft - a little less than 8 hours before the real thing. Sifting through rumors and figuring out which ones to believe in is a time-consuming process... but I love doing it so it's a welcomed "chore".

Before I hit the actual mock, I want to discuss two trades which I think have a good chance at going down and thus I included them while making this mock draft.

The first is a trade between New Jersey and Sacramento. This deal would have the #3 pick (Cousins) going to Sacramento for the #5 pick (Johnson) and one of their PFs. Sacramento would ensure they get their franchise C, while New Jersey gets the SF they want, but pick up value.

The second is the rumored Minnesota/Detroit deal. Here, Minnesota would send out Al Jefferson and #16 for Tayshaun Prince and #7. More could be added, but I think those are the only two picks and "major" players involved.

Alright, time for the mock. I shortened down the commentary and added in a feature of my odds sheet with the % chance to reach a certain level. After each label, will be what I believe the odds are that they will be at least that good.

1. Washington - John Wall (PG):
Franchise player: 20%, Fringe All-Star: 90%
The Arenas era is over; the John Wall era has now begun. This pick is a lock now per reports.

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

2010 NBA Draft - Big Board (Final)

2010 Big Board: Rule - can go down one tier for need, makes tiers more flexible and blended

1. John Wall - Elite athlete who takes advantage of fast breaks and drives seams well. Great defensive potential and comes up with big plays on that end though sometimes has mental lapses. Can create his own shot with ease, but will need to work on refining his jumper to become a complete offensive player. Prone for handling errors and tends to force things at times, but can also do some spectacular things with the ball. Is a good mix of pure and scoring point guard tendencies.
2. Derrick Favors - Physical specimen with rare combination of strength and athleticism. Could play either frontcourt spot offensively, but needs to work on his jumpshot if he’s to maximize his effectiveness at the ‘4’ and his post skills if he’s going to maximize his effectiveness at the ‘5’. Tends to lose his dribble when executing post moves, but has great hands and should be a monster in terms of efficiency. At his peak, he should be one of the best defenders and rebounders, but he might lack the desire or passion on the court to be a dominant offensive player.

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Updated Mock Draft - June 15th, 2010

Latest Mock Draft after reading through various rumors and articles, as well as watching a lot of workout videos. As such, there's been a lot of shake-up in this mock compared to the last one.

1st Round:
1. Washington - John Wall (PG):
The Arenas era is over; the John Wall era has now begun. This pick is a lock now per reports.

2. Philadelphia - Evan Turner (SG/SF):
This pick could be moved so Philadelphia picks up more value as Turner and Iguodala duplicate each other’s strengths and weaknesses a little too much. I believe they would be almost equally as happy with Favors or Cousins, but right now Turner is the safer bet.

Thursday, June 10, 2010

Odds Sheet Update - June 10th, 2010

Odds sheet uploaded here and added to the side-bar.

Just to give a brief rundown, the Odds Sheet is my way of rating players. At the moment, there are seven weighted categories: Franchise Player (Fran), Recurring All-Star (R-AS), Fringe All-Star (F-AS), Solid Starter (SS), Fringe Starter (FS), Decent Bench Player (DBP), and Out of the League (Out). I'm thinking of adding an eighth called End of Rotation Player (or something of the sort) to bridge the gap from being a decent bench player (7th/8th man) and those who never really become more than a 9th/10th man.

Anyway, each player is given a numeric value for each category which is the percent chance I think the prospect will end up playing at that level during his peak years. That value is then multiplied by the weighted value given to each category (10, 4, 2, 1, 1/2, 1/4, and -1/3 respectively according to the list of 7 above). This Rating is then another tool I use to help me mold my Big Board because it's another way of showing how I truly feel about a player instead of just listing their strengths, weaknesses, and then attempting to judge upside and the likelihood they reach 100% of their potential, 75% of their potential, etc.

Hope you enjoy.

Monday, June 7, 2010

Consensus Big Board Rankings 6-07-2010

I finally got around to updating the latest Consensus Big Board rankings. I had been waiting for and to update their rankings; and since they both recently did... well... I could do my thing.

For those who are unaware, I take the Big Board rankings of the four major sites I look at for Big Boards (DX,,, and ESPN), then add in my own, and the average rankings make up the Consensus Big Board. This consensus gives everyone a better idea of where players may rank at the current point in time, and the database allows for all of us to see how a prospect's stock has fallen or risen as the days pass. The last update I did was May 2nd, and as you can see here (a link is also under the "Useful Files" tab on the sidebar), a lot of things have changed since then. The brief analysis of these rankings will be discussed below the fold.

Wednesday, June 2, 2010

June 2nd, 2010 - Mock Draft (full)

Alright, next up is the first full mock of the year.

Before this update, I had just done the first round, but I have now added the second round as I had time to read up and watch a bit more videos on the international prospects I wasn't too familiar with, while also seeing measurements and all that good stuff. This mock was done based on whatever news and rumors I have been come across about the stock of certain prospects, as well as what I think would make good sense where there hasn't been much news.

Going to save you from reading any more non-draft stuff. Remember to hit up the Big Board if you are curious about how I view a player.

Here it is:

1. Washington - John Wall (PG):
The Arenas era is over; the John Wall era has now begun. This pick is a lock.

June 2nd, 2010 - Big Board

Been a little busy enjoying the summer, but I'm back working on this site again to get us all ready for the draft.

I just finished doing a major update to my big board, where instead of just having their name next to their rank, I now have a short synopsis of how I view the players and their attributes. Now, admittedly I am not an international expert, so those players will have shorter descriptions which may be far less helpful than looking at their respective DX,, or ESPN page - but nonetheless I hope this is a helpful tool as you continue to get to know prospects strengths and weaknesses before the draft. In the coming weeks I'll be tweaking the descriptions more depending on the type of feedback I get.

Well, without further ado, the updated Big Board out to my 10th tier:
(As a reminder, the rule is that I would be able to go down one tier for need, this makes tiers more flexible and blended)

Tier 1:
1. John Wall - Elite athlete who takes advantage of fast breaks and drives seams well. Great defensive potential and comes up with big plays on that end though sometimes has mental lapses. Can create his own shot with ease, but will need to work on refining his jumper to become a complete offensive player. Prone for handling errors and tends to force things at times, but can also do some spectacular things with the ball. Is a good mix of pure and scoring point guard tendencies.

Sunday, May 23, 2010

Wes Johnson Writeup

Wesley Johnson - Jr. SF, Syracuse

Per36min numbers against Quality Opponents (22 games):
16.8pts, 8.6rebs, 1.7asts, 1.0stls, 1.8blks, 2.6 TOs, 2.3 PFs
49.3 FG%, 39.7 3pt% (31/78), 77.5 FT%, .41 FTA/FGA

A guy who wasn’t in the minds of many, if not all of the scouts who were trying to peg first round prospect to start out the year; Wesley Johnson has turned himself from an unknown to a guy in the conversation to be a top-5 pick in this draft. Unfortunately, his season did not end as he’d hope, as the Orangemen were bounced in the Sweet-16 by Butler. In that game, Johnson appeared to play within the offense, instead of going out and attempting to take over. That was the norm for Wes this season, and is likely one of the few reasons he isn’t being talked about in the same breath as Turner.

Tuesday, May 18, 2010

May 18th, 2010 - Mock Draft

The 2010 NBA Draft Lottery selection finished a little more than two hours ago. Some fans (Washington and Philly, I'm looking at you) were elated. Others? Heart-broken.

However, what's done is done. The past is in the past. We can only look forward. As such, here's my first post-lottery NBA Mock Draft.

1. Washington - John Wall (PG):

The Arenas era is over; the John Wall era has now begun. It will be a tough year for the Blue Jesus, but with Washington having significant cap room; maybe he can lure someone there.

2. Philadelphia - Evan Turner (SG/SF):
While this should be a lock, you never know. The Sixers could decide to rebuild their frontcourt and not duplicate talent on the wing. However, I think they take Turner and figure out what to do with Iggy and their frontcourt later.

3. New Jersey - Derrick Favors (PF/C):
Lopez isn’t really a brutish player down low, but he’s a skilled offensive player who can step out and hit a jumper. Favors is a brutish player and he has the athleticism Lopez lacks. This is a spectacular fit and likely the second best player for the Nets so they can’t be too disappointed.

Monday, May 17, 2010

NBA Lottery History

So I wrote up this article for a Timberwolves forum two years back about how bad the Timberwolves luck has been in the lottery. I had used the DraftExpress Lottery History page to formulate all the odds for the #1 and #2 picks (the #2 pick odds had to be estimated for 1990-1993), and then went on to describe how unlucky the Timberwolves were.

Well today, I decided to do more than that. I have gone through and used that DX page to get the odds on every team for each season from 1990 to 2009 (check the starred rows on the sheets marked #1 and #2 for the %s), and then went through to describe how lucky or unlucky some of the teams have been. The results are after the jump.

Saturday, May 15, 2010

Paul George Writeup

Paul George - So. SG/SF, Fresno State

Per36min numbers against Quality Opponents (10 games):
17.8 pts, 7.1 rebs, 3.3 asts, 2.1 stls, 0.6 blks, 4.3 TOs, 2.9 PFs
35.5 FG%, 27.3 3pt% (15/55), 90.0 FT%, .43 FTA/FGA

After two years of playing at Fresno State, Paul George is a relative enigma to the casual fan. Playing in the WAC did not offer him many opportunities to go up against quality NCAA teams, as the best WAC teams of the past two seasons (Utah State and Nevada) did not exactly offer the type of NBA-caliber talent to go up against that teams in the major conferences could. However, the diligent fan could find games being streamed online, and in those games they could see that his talent stood out on the court.

Monday, April 26, 2010

Draft Prospect Odds Sheet 4-26-2010

For the last two year's I have made a sheet displaying how likely I think it is that a player will reach a certain level after he's reached his peak or 4-5 years after he's been drafted. I have divided the levels into seven categories: Franchise player, recurring all-star, fringe all-star, solid starter, fringe starter, decent bench player, or out of the league.

The first such sheet for this season can be seen here

On the far right column, the rating of the player can be seen. This is a basic formula where the odds of each category are each given a certain value (with out of the league carrying a negative rating), and then are added together to give the final score. The rating provides me with yet another useful tool when ranking players, as I figure out another way to extract how I truly feel about the prospects of a player instead of just some blanketed overview.

Disagree with some of the odds? Don't like how this is done? Let me know - you can find me on twitter under HoopsCasper.

Saturday, April 17, 2010

Consensus Big Board 4-17-2010

So the college season ended and I gave every site I follow a week or so to update their big board so that I could get the latest Consensus Rankings up. Lots of people moved around, some jumped up noticeably (I'm looking at you Daniel Orton) while others slid down because of all the movers.

This will be the last update of the Consensus Rankings until after some more prospect info goes out, so probably sometime in early May. So I'll leave you with the latest updated average rankings of players on their big boards (DX,, ESPN, and yours truly - respectively):

1. John Wall - Fr. PG (1,1,1,1):
ESPN Profile

2. Evan Turner - Jr. SG/SF (2,2,2,2):
ESPN Profile

3. DeMarcus Cousins - Fr. PF/C (3,3,4,4):
ESPN Profile

4. Derrick Favors - Fr. PF (4,4,3,3):
ESPN Profile

Monday, April 12, 2010

Devin Ebanks Writeup

Devin Ebanks - So. SF/PF, West Virginia

Per36min numbers against Quality Opponents (27 games):
12.2 pts, 8.6 rebs, 2.7 asts, 1.1 stls, 0.5 blks, 1.7 PFs, 2.3 TOs
47.2 FG%, 15.8 3pt% (3/19), 76.2 FT%, .55 FTA/FGA

Devin Ebanks may be the consummate role player at the SF spot. He plays with energy on both ends, he crashes the boards, he is unselfish and moves the ball well, he is an outstanding man defender and great team defender, he can score efficiently from within 15 feet, and he can knock his FTs down.

At 6’8, 210lbs Ebanks is not a physically imposing player. However, even though he only has above average length and athleticism in NBA terms, he is a menace on the defensive end and can play in the paint as well as well as check the opposing team’s most talented offensive player. While he doesn’t posses great straight-line speed with the ball in his hands, he is fast moving without the ball. Even though he only has mediocre leaping ability, he is efficient finishing inside and does a great job challenging shots. Even though his lateral quickness isn’t elite, he understands positioning defensively to cut off lanes and stay in front of his man. Honestly, his biggest advantage athletically over his SF competition may be that he never appears to tire, especially on the defensive end.

Thursday, April 1, 2010

NBA Mock Draft (4-1-2010)

Mock Time!

John Henson, Kemba Walker, Elias Harris, Luke Babbitt, Jordan Crawford, and Jeff Taylor were excluded from the mock. The rest of the guys listed above are fair game. You can see I added Vesely and Motiejunas to the big board since the last mock, but I'm certainly not knowledgeable about either, going to do my best on placing them, however.

1. New Jersey - John Wall (PG):

2. Minnesota - Evan Turner (SG/SF):
No Wall? Okay, I'd be kind of bummed, but getting Turner would still be fantastic and fill a big... no... humongous need. 35mpg of great all-around play straight out.

NBA Draft Big Board (April 1st, 2010)

It's that time again.

Tournament is basically over for the notable prospects on most people's boards, but I'm an Ebanks superfan so I'm still paying lots of attention. Anyway, there's a lull before Saturday's game, so I threw this together for kicks. Big Board has flexible tiers, so going down one tier for a much greater need is alright. Mock excludes Henson, Walker, Harris, and Babbitt off my board, because I'm skeptical that those guys will enter. All the rest are fair game.

Tier 1:
1. John Wall

Tier 2:
2. Evan Turner

Friday, March 26, 2010

Consensus Rankings of 2009-10 Season

Once the college season commenced, I started keeping track of the rankings of players on the three major sites I followed, as well as my own. Once I stumbled upon, I added them to the consensus as they seemed to update their Big Board fairly regularly, and it was a quality website so I felt it was a great addition. During the periods which hasn't kept their big board current, I have dropped them from the rankings so they aren't as skewed.

Basically, I have logged these so that we could get a true feel for how player rankings have changed throughout the year. is the only site which keeps a history of some sort on rankings, and this transparency is a good thing because it gives their audience a better view of how a player's stock changed throughout the year in the eyes of DX. However, they only keep track of a history on how a players standing changed in their Mock Drafts, but I'm more curious as to how Big Boards change.

This led to me tracking the change of the Big Boards of the "major" NBA draft websites. The file where you can see these rankings can be found here. After the break, I'll give an overview of how it is all set up.

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Consensus Big Board

Roughly every week I go through the major draft websites I follow and track the rankings of prospects on their big boards. I do not track mock drafts as one website may have a prospect listed in their 2010 mock, while another has them listed in their 2011 mock and then how is one supposed to determine how to rank such a prospect for the 2010 NBA Draft when we, at this point, do not know for sure who is declaring this year? As such, I track the big boards of those websites, as they do not (or should not) segregate prospects based on when they think they will declare, but rather they rank them on how they feel their current talent and potential will translate to the NBA level.

I normally include in these rankings, but as they haven't updated their big board since the middle of January, I have excluded them as it distorts the current state of the general consensus. Also, in these posts I will only go out to the top-25, however I plan on uploading the spreadsheet I keep with has the rankings of all the prospects I track and how the rankings have changed throughout the year.

Enough of the discussion, here are the updated average rankings of players according to the big boards (DX,, ESPN, and yours truly - respectively):

1. John Wall - Fr. PG (1,1,1,1):
ESPN Profile

2. Evan Turner - Jr. SG/SF (2,2,2,2):
ESPN Profile

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Quality Opponent Statistics

The statistics which were piled up against subpar teams aren't as useful to gauge a player as those which came against quality competition. Because of this, I go through and pick out teams which I view as the quality opponents a prospect could face (using RPI and then favoring the teams in the power conferences and quality mid-major conferences) and then log the stats of the high-profile prospects.

The link for the spreadsheet for everyone to view is here. I will discuss some of the best and worst after the break.

Monday, March 22, 2010

NBA Draft Big Board (March 22nd, 2010)

My first new blog post is going to be my latest NBA big board. How I make my tiers is different than other places - I have flexible tiers where going down one tier (only one, however) is okay to make a selection when there is a position (or role) of much greater need which is available. This makes the ranking process more fluid, as there usually isn't a concrete talent separation between prospects.

I have a board going out to 70+, but since the draft is so far away, and I don't want to have clutter, I'm just going to list it out until my last tier hits 40. In the list, there are some players which I am fairly certain will not declare, however since nobody knows for certain who will or won't declare, I will not exclude them. I also have only included two international prospects, this is because I don't have nearly as much information on the players not in the NCAA, and the only two which get major pub on the websites and forums I visit are Vesely and Motiejunas.

Without further ado, here... we... go...

Tier 1:
1. John Wall

Tier 2:
2. Evan Turner

Tier 3:
3. Derrick Favors
4. DeMarcus Cousins

Tier 4:
5. Wesley Johnson

Tier 5:
6. Ed Davis
7. Greg Monroe
8. Cole Aldrich

Hassan Whiteside Writeup

Hassan Whiteside - Fr. PF/C, Marshall

Per36min numbers against Quality Opponents (10 games):
16.8pts, 9.9rebs, 0.0asts, 0.6stls, 5.4blks, 3.5PFs, 2.3TOs
44.6 FG%, 33.3 3pt% (1/3), 68.1 FT%, .42 FTA/FGA

Standing 6’11 and weighing somewhere around 230 pounds with a mammoth wingspan, Whiteside is tailor-made for playing weakside defense and altering shots around the rim. He went in and smashed the old C-USA single-season blocks record of 143 blocks with 173 blocks of his own. Not only that, but he’s set to become the first freshman to lead the nation in blocks since Travis Williams in 1998-99, an extremely impressive feat.

James Anderson Writeup

James Anderson - Jr. SG/SF, Oklahoma State

Per36min numbers against Quality Opponents (20 games):
23.2pts, 6.0rebs, 2.7asts, 1.4stls, 0.5blks, 2.9PFs, 2.7TOs
44.2 FG%, 36.0 3pt% (49/136), 82.4 FT%, .50 FTA/FGA

James Anderson is Mr. Offense for the Cowboys. He’s made slow, steady progress in both improving his body and his game the past two years at Oklahoma State, and while there are still some worries about how he’ll translate to the NBA level, he’s answered a lot of the questions people had about him his freshman year.

At 6’6, 220lbs with decent (not exceptional) length and good upper body strength, he has an NBA body for a SG. Athletically, he’s solid and he rarely tires. He’s not an explosive leaper, as you rarely see him dunk or get a lot of lift when he blocks the occasional shot, but he does possess great lateral quickness and has good straight-line speed.

Ekpe Udoh Writeup

Ekpe Udoh - Jr. PF/C, Baylor

Per36min numbers against Quality Opponents (24 games):
13.3pts, 9.0rebs, 2.5asts, 0.8stls, 3.0blks, 2.7PFs, 2.6TOs
47.3 FG%, 31.6 3pt% (6/19), 68.5 FT%, .37 FTA/FGA

At 6’10, 240lbs, Udoh has an incredible frame with extremely long arms and wide shoulders. While he’s not skinny, he looks to be able to add even more muscle on his frame as right now he looks like Dwight Howard did when he came into the league. However, at nearly 23 years of age, maybe he’s just going to stay at this size and thus be far more adept at playing PF with only spot minutes at C.

Udoh is a fluid runner and moves around the court like a SF. He possesses great lateral footspeed which allows him to look comfortable on the perimeter on either end. As far as jumping, even though he appears like he’d be able to get up high, he’s not an explosive leaper but rather just looks relatively normal. He is, however, quick off the ground which can be seen defensively.