It's time for my final mock draft - a little less than 8 hours before the real thing. Sifting through rumors and figuring out which ones to believe in is a time-consuming process... but I love doing it so it's a welcomed "chore".
Before I hit the actual mock, I want to discuss two trades which I think have a good chance at going down and thus I included them while making this mock draft.
The first is a trade between New Jersey and Sacramento. This deal would have the #3 pick (Cousins) going to Sacramento for the #5 pick (Johnson) and one of their PFs. Sacramento would ensure they get their franchise C, while New Jersey gets the SF they want, but pick up value.
The second is the rumored Minnesota/Detroit deal. Here, Minnesota would send out Al Jefferson and #16 for Tayshaun Prince and #7. More could be added, but I think those are the only two picks and "major" players involved.
Alright, time for the mock. I shortened down the commentary and added in a feature of my odds sheet with the % chance to reach a certain level. After each label, will be what I believe the odds are that they will be at least that good.
Lottery:
1. Washington - John Wall (PG):
Franchise player: 20%, Fringe All-Star: 90%
The Arenas era is over; the John Wall era has now begun. This pick is a lock now per reports.
Thursday, June 24, 2010
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
2010 NBA Draft - Big Board (Final)
2010 Big Board: Rule - can go down one tier for need, makes tiers more flexible and blended
1. John Wall - Elite athlete who takes advantage of fast breaks and drives seams well. Great defensive potential and comes up with big plays on that end though sometimes has mental lapses. Can create his own shot with ease, but will need to work on refining his jumper to become a complete offensive player. Prone for handling errors and tends to force things at times, but can also do some spectacular things with the ball. Is a good mix of pure and scoring point guard tendencies.
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2. Derrick Favors - Physical specimen with rare combination of strength and athleticism. Could play either frontcourt spot offensively, but needs to work on his jumpshot if he’s to maximize his effectiveness at the ‘4’ and his post skills if he’s going to maximize his effectiveness at the ‘5’. Tends to lose his dribble when executing post moves, but has great hands and should be a monster in terms of efficiency. At his peak, he should be one of the best defenders and rebounders, but he might lack the desire or passion on the court to be a dominant offensive player.
1. John Wall - Elite athlete who takes advantage of fast breaks and drives seams well. Great defensive potential and comes up with big plays on that end though sometimes has mental lapses. Can create his own shot with ease, but will need to work on refining his jumper to become a complete offensive player. Prone for handling errors and tends to force things at times, but can also do some spectacular things with the ball. Is a good mix of pure and scoring point guard tendencies.
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2. Derrick Favors - Physical specimen with rare combination of strength and athleticism. Could play either frontcourt spot offensively, but needs to work on his jumpshot if he’s to maximize his effectiveness at the ‘4’ and his post skills if he’s going to maximize his effectiveness at the ‘5’. Tends to lose his dribble when executing post moves, but has great hands and should be a monster in terms of efficiency. At his peak, he should be one of the best defenders and rebounders, but he might lack the desire or passion on the court to be a dominant offensive player.
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Updated Mock Draft - June 15th, 2010
Latest Mock Draft after reading through various rumors and articles, as well as watching a lot of workout videos. As such, there's been a lot of shake-up in this mock compared to the last one.
1st Round:
1. Washington - John Wall (PG):
The Arenas era is over; the John Wall era has now begun. This pick is a lock now per reports.
2. Philadelphia - Evan Turner (SG/SF):
This pick could be moved so Philadelphia picks up more value as Turner and Iguodala duplicate each other’s strengths and weaknesses a little too much. I believe they would be almost equally as happy with Favors or Cousins, but right now Turner is the safer bet.
1st Round:
1. Washington - John Wall (PG):
The Arenas era is over; the John Wall era has now begun. This pick is a lock now per reports.
2. Philadelphia - Evan Turner (SG/SF):
This pick could be moved so Philadelphia picks up more value as Turner and Iguodala duplicate each other’s strengths and weaknesses a little too much. I believe they would be almost equally as happy with Favors or Cousins, but right now Turner is the safer bet.
Thursday, June 10, 2010
Odds Sheet Update - June 10th, 2010
Odds sheet uploaded here and added to the side-bar.
Just to give a brief rundown, the Odds Sheet is my way of rating players. At the moment, there are seven weighted categories: Franchise Player (Fran), Recurring All-Star (R-AS), Fringe All-Star (F-AS), Solid Starter (SS), Fringe Starter (FS), Decent Bench Player (DBP), and Out of the League (Out). I'm thinking of adding an eighth called End of Rotation Player (or something of the sort) to bridge the gap from being a decent bench player (7th/8th man) and those who never really become more than a 9th/10th man.
Anyway, each player is given a numeric value for each category which is the percent chance I think the prospect will end up playing at that level during his peak years. That value is then multiplied by the weighted value given to each category (10, 4, 2, 1, 1/2, 1/4, and -1/3 respectively according to the list of 7 above). This Rating is then another tool I use to help me mold my Big Board because it's another way of showing how I truly feel about a player instead of just listing their strengths, weaknesses, and then attempting to judge upside and the likelihood they reach 100% of their potential, 75% of their potential, etc.
Hope you enjoy.
Just to give a brief rundown, the Odds Sheet is my way of rating players. At the moment, there are seven weighted categories: Franchise Player (Fran), Recurring All-Star (R-AS), Fringe All-Star (F-AS), Solid Starter (SS), Fringe Starter (FS), Decent Bench Player (DBP), and Out of the League (Out). I'm thinking of adding an eighth called End of Rotation Player (or something of the sort) to bridge the gap from being a decent bench player (7th/8th man) and those who never really become more than a 9th/10th man.
Anyway, each player is given a numeric value for each category which is the percent chance I think the prospect will end up playing at that level during his peak years. That value is then multiplied by the weighted value given to each category (10, 4, 2, 1, 1/2, 1/4, and -1/3 respectively according to the list of 7 above). This Rating is then another tool I use to help me mold my Big Board because it's another way of showing how I truly feel about a player instead of just listing their strengths, weaknesses, and then attempting to judge upside and the likelihood they reach 100% of their potential, 75% of their potential, etc.
Hope you enjoy.
Monday, June 7, 2010
Consensus Big Board Rankings 6-07-2010
I finally got around to updating the latest Consensus Big Board rankings. I had been waiting for nbadraft.net and nba-draft.com to update their rankings; and since they both recently did... well... I could do my thing.
For those who are unaware, I take the Big Board rankings of the four major sites I look at for Big Boards (DX, nbadraft.net, nba-draft.com, and ESPN), then add in my own, and the average rankings make up the Consensus Big Board. This consensus gives everyone a better idea of where players may rank at the current point in time, and the database allows for all of us to see how a prospect's stock has fallen or risen as the days pass. The last update I did was May 2nd, and as you can see here (a link is also under the "Useful Files" tab on the sidebar), a lot of things have changed since then. The brief analysis of these rankings will be discussed below the fold.
For those who are unaware, I take the Big Board rankings of the four major sites I look at for Big Boards (DX, nbadraft.net, nba-draft.com, and ESPN), then add in my own, and the average rankings make up the Consensus Big Board. This consensus gives everyone a better idea of where players may rank at the current point in time, and the database allows for all of us to see how a prospect's stock has fallen or risen as the days pass. The last update I did was May 2nd, and as you can see here (a link is also under the "Useful Files" tab on the sidebar), a lot of things have changed since then. The brief analysis of these rankings will be discussed below the fold.
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
June 2nd, 2010 - Mock Draft (full)
Alright, next up is the first full mock of the year.
Before this update, I had just done the first round, but I have now added the second round as I had time to read up and watch a bit more videos on the international prospects I wasn't too familiar with, while also seeing measurements and all that good stuff. This mock was done based on whatever news and rumors I have been come across about the stock of certain prospects, as well as what I think would make good sense where there hasn't been much news.
Going to save you from reading any more non-draft stuff. Remember to hit up the Big Board if you are curious about how I view a player.
Here it is:
Lottery:
1. Washington - John Wall (PG):
The Arenas era is over; the John Wall era has now begun. This pick is a lock.
Before this update, I had just done the first round, but I have now added the second round as I had time to read up and watch a bit more videos on the international prospects I wasn't too familiar with, while also seeing measurements and all that good stuff. This mock was done based on whatever news and rumors I have been come across about the stock of certain prospects, as well as what I think would make good sense where there hasn't been much news.
Going to save you from reading any more non-draft stuff. Remember to hit up the Big Board if you are curious about how I view a player.
Here it is:
Lottery:
1. Washington - John Wall (PG):
The Arenas era is over; the John Wall era has now begun. This pick is a lock.
June 2nd, 2010 - Big Board
Been a little busy enjoying the summer, but I'm back working on this site again to get us all ready for the draft.
I just finished doing a major update to my big board, where instead of just having their name next to their rank, I now have a short synopsis of how I view the players and their attributes. Now, admittedly I am not an international expert, so those players will have shorter descriptions which may be far less helpful than looking at their respective DX, nbadraft.net, or ESPN page - but nonetheless I hope this is a helpful tool as you continue to get to know prospects strengths and weaknesses before the draft. In the coming weeks I'll be tweaking the descriptions more depending on the type of feedback I get.
Well, without further ado, the updated Big Board out to my 10th tier:
(As a reminder, the rule is that I would be able to go down one tier for need, this makes tiers more flexible and blended)
Tier 1:
1. John Wall - Elite athlete who takes advantage of fast breaks and drives seams well. Great defensive potential and comes up with big plays on that end though sometimes has mental lapses. Can create his own shot with ease, but will need to work on refining his jumper to become a complete offensive player. Prone for handling errors and tends to force things at times, but can also do some spectacular things with the ball. Is a good mix of pure and scoring point guard tendencies.
I just finished doing a major update to my big board, where instead of just having their name next to their rank, I now have a short synopsis of how I view the players and their attributes. Now, admittedly I am not an international expert, so those players will have shorter descriptions which may be far less helpful than looking at their respective DX, nbadraft.net, or ESPN page - but nonetheless I hope this is a helpful tool as you continue to get to know prospects strengths and weaknesses before the draft. In the coming weeks I'll be tweaking the descriptions more depending on the type of feedback I get.
Well, without further ado, the updated Big Board out to my 10th tier:
(As a reminder, the rule is that I would be able to go down one tier for need, this makes tiers more flexible and blended)
Tier 1:
1. John Wall - Elite athlete who takes advantage of fast breaks and drives seams well. Great defensive potential and comes up with big plays on that end though sometimes has mental lapses. Can create his own shot with ease, but will need to work on refining his jumper to become a complete offensive player. Prone for handling errors and tends to force things at times, but can also do some spectacular things with the ball. Is a good mix of pure and scoring point guard tendencies.
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