Thursday, June 24, 2010

2010 NBA Draft - Mock Draft (Final)

It's time for my final mock draft - a little less than 8 hours before the real thing. Sifting through rumors and figuring out which ones to believe in is a time-consuming process... but I love doing it so it's a welcomed "chore".

Before I hit the actual mock, I want to discuss two trades which I think have a good chance at going down and thus I included them while making this mock draft.

The first is a trade between New Jersey and Sacramento. This deal would have the #3 pick (Cousins) going to Sacramento for the #5 pick (Johnson) and one of their PFs. Sacramento would ensure they get their franchise C, while New Jersey gets the SF they want, but pick up value.

The second is the rumored Minnesota/Detroit deal. Here, Minnesota would send out Al Jefferson and #16 for Tayshaun Prince and #7. More could be added, but I think those are the only two picks and "major" players involved.

Alright, time for the mock. I shortened down the commentary and added in a feature of my odds sheet with the % chance to reach a certain level. After each label, will be what I believe the odds are that they will be at least that good.

1. Washington - John Wall (PG):
Franchise player: 20%, Fringe All-Star: 90%
The Arenas era is over; the John Wall era has now begun. This pick is a lock now per reports.

2. Philadelphia - Evan Turner (SG/SF):
Franchise player: 5%, Fringe All-Star: 80%
It seems like Philadelphia will draft Turner and then try to flip Iguodala as they duplicate each other’s strengths and weaknesses a little too much.

3. Sacramento (from NJN) - DeMarcus Cousins (C):
Franchise player: 10%, Fringe All-Star: 60%
I think New Jersey ends up trading down to take Wesley Johnson, and that Sacramento moves up to #3 using one of their PFs as the prime bait. Sacramento gets their franchise C.

4. Minnesota - Derrick Favors (PF/C):
Franchise player: 15%, Fringe All-Star: 50%
Minnesota thinks about taking Johnson, but reason wins out and they go Favors. This opens up the trade which will send Al out for Detroit’s pick.

5. New Jersey (From SAC) - Wesley Johnson (SF):
Fringe All-Star: 30%, Solid Starter: 85%
Sacramento trades up for Cousins, while New Jersey moves down for the correct value on Wesley Johnson. New Jersey gets their long-term starting SF and then plans on getting a PF in free agency.

6. Golden State - Greg Monroe (PF/C):
Fringe All-Star: 11%, Solid Starter: 45%
Seeing as they already have athletes in the frontcourt, Monroe’s athletic and defensive deficiencies could be covered up and his skills could be maximized.

7. Minnesota (from DET) - Paul George (SG/SF):
Fringe All-Star: 15%, Solid Starter: 35%
Detroit trades this pick to Minnesota for Al Jefferson. Minnesota attempts to use this pick to get Wesley Johnson, but instead settles for Paul George who impressed in workouts.

8. LA Clippers - Al-Farouq Aminu (SF/PF):
Fringe All-Star: 11%, Solid Starter: 31%
The Clippers have a need at SF, and Aminu gets the spot here since he has the ability to play PF next to Griffin when they go small and also gives them great athleticism and defense.

9. Utah (from NY) - Cole Aldrich (C):
Fringe All-Star: 1%, Solid Starter: 35%
Cole doesn’t offer much upside, but he’s ready right away and it beats relying on Fesenko or Koufos to develop, while also being a decent fit with Millsap.

10. Indiana - Ed Davis (PF):
Fringe All-Star: 25%, Solid Starter: 60%
Davis gives them a very athletic PF with upside to put next to Hibbert, and also reuinites him with Hansbrough. Opens up Murphy to be moved for a veteran PG.

11. New Orleans - Gordon Hayward (SF):
Fringe All-Star: 0%, Fringe Starter: 40%
Hayward makes sense for the Hornets, as they are looking for a scorer at the SF spot. It’s rumored he has a promise in the top-12.

12. Memphis - Patrick Patterson (PF):
Fringe All-Star: 0%, Fringe Starter: 65%
Patterson has the ability to come in next season and replace the troubled Randolph at PF, giving them steady production on both ends of the court.

13. Toronto - Eric Bledsoe (PG):
Fringe All-Star: 1%, Fringe Starter: 35%
I think they go PG here, but the question is - which one: Bledsoe or Bradley? I think they go for the one who has more developed PG skills but slightly less talent defensively and take Bledsoe. This allows them to move Calderon or Jack.

14. Houston - Xavier Henry (SG/SF):
Fringe All-Star: 20%, Fringe Starter: 85%
I don’t know what Houston is going to target, but Henry is BPA at this spot and I can’t see him falling much further than this, and even though he doesn’t quite make sense in Houston they could easily trade this pick.

Rest of 1st Round:
15. Milwaukee (from CHI) - Ekpe Udoh (PF/C):
Solid Starter: 30%, Fringe Starter: 75%
With the Bucks just acquiring Maggette, I think they look in the frontcourt and add Udoh who bolsters their surprisingly good defense and could be a very nice fit next to Bogut.

16. Detroit (from MIN via CHA) - Hassan Whiteside (PF/C):
Solid Starter: 30%, Fringe Starter: 50%
Minnesota ships this pick to Detroit in the Al Jefferson trade and Detroit selects Hassan Whiteside who they hope can give them some much needed defense in the frontcourt if Wallace leaves, although they may have to wait a little.

17. Chicago (from MIL) - James Anderson (SG):
Solid Starter: 26%, Fringe Starter: 66%
Anderson fits well next to Rose as an off-the-ball scorer from deep and also brings decent playmaking and defense to the table. Great fit.

18. Oklahoma City (from MIA) - Daniel Orton (PF/C):
Fringe Starter: 21%
Oklahoma could very well package all three of their picks to move up into the lottery, but I can’t speculate on who they’d target. I do know they like Orton, so he’s the pick here.

19. Boston - Avery Bradley (PG/SG):
Fringe Starter: 45%
Boston is aging. Bradley can come in and give them athleticism, defense, and jumpshooting at the SG spot and eventually learn to play some point. He and Rondo in the backcourt would be menacing.

20. San Antonio - Luke Babbitt (SF/PF):
Fringe Starter: 30%
Jefferson was a letdown at the SF spot, and so I think the Spurs use this pick to upgrade their talent. Babbitt falling gives them an NBA-ready offensive talent.

21. Oklahoma City - Damion James (SF/PF):
Fringe Starter: 50%
If the Thunder keep this pick, they go with value and reunite James with Durant. While he kind of overlaps with Green, it gives them leverage in contract negotiations.

22. Portland - Kevin Seraphin (PF/C):
Fringe Starter: 31%
Seraphin is an upside pick, but also should be able to contribute a crude, but punishing game on offense his first year; while also giving them plus production defensively and on the boards while Oden and Przybilla are out.

23. Minnesota (from UTA) - Quincy Pondexter (SF):
Fringe Starter: 20%
Minnesota could include this pick in the Detroit deal, or use it to attempt to move up from the 7th pick, but as it stands I think they go with Pondexter given his impressive workout and he’ll give them more defense and flexibility on the wing.

24. Atlanta - Larry Sanders (PF/C):
Fringe Starter: 30%
The Hawks need size and defense. Sanders brings great defensive ability as well as an excellent frame, but doesn’t have the bulk they’d be looking for.

25. Memphis (from DEN) - Eliot Williams (SG):
Fringe Starter: 15%
I don’t think Memphis keeps both of their late picks, however I’ll pick like they do. Williams grew up in Memphis and played one year there in college, and his style works well with Mayo.

26. Oklahoma City (from PHX) - Tibor Pleiss (C):
Fringe Starter: 20%
If they keep the pick, Pleiss goes here. The Thunder are rumored to like him, and this is a stash pick.

27. New Jersey (from DAL) - Solomon Alabi (C):
Fringe Starter: 20%
Working off the first trade, I think NJ now goes for a big that could work next to Lopez in limited minutes, and also give them defense.

28. Memphis (from LAL) - Greivis Vasquez (PG/SG):
Fringe Starter: 11%
This pick is rumored to be available for cash. However, if they keep it he apparently impressed them in workouts, and they assure that he’s in a Grizzlies uniform with this pick. Should be a nice backup PG.

29. Orlando - Darington Hobson (SG/SF):
Fringe Starter: 35%
Hobson is rumored to have a 1st round promise. While he doesn’t have the star potential on the wing which they seemed to need in the playoffs, he can fill a void off the bench and then eventually earn a starting spot and allow Nelson to work off him at times.

30. Washington (from CLE) - Devin Ebanks (SF/PF):
Fringe Starter: 65%
Nice value here. Ebanks gives them excellent defense on the wing and someone who likes to run. If his offensive skillset ever matures, he’ll give them an extremely versatile player.

2nd Round:
31. New Jersey - Terrico White (SG)
32. Miami (from OKC via MIN) - Craig Brackins (PF)
33. Sacramento - Willie Warren (SG)
34. Portland (from GS) - Dominique Jones (SG)
35. Washington - Jordan Crawford (SG)
36. Detroit - Jerome Jordan (C)
37. Milwaukee (from PHI) - Gani Lawal (PF)
38. New York - Lance Stephenson (SG/SF)
39. New York (from LAC) - Trevor Booker (PF)
40. Indiana - Armon Johnson (PG/SG)
41. Miami (from NO) - Stanley Robinson (SF)
42. Miami (from TOR) - Artsiom Parakhouski (C)
43. LA Lakers (from MEM) - Jerome Randle (PG)
44. Milwaukee (from GS via CHI) - Paulao Prestes (C)
45. Minnesota (from HOU) - Nemanja Bjelica (SG/SF)
46. Phoenix (from CHA) - Brian Zoubek (C)
47. Milwaukee - Mikhail Torrance (PG/SG)
48. Miami - Dexter Pittman (C)
49. San Antonio - Jarvis Varnado (PF)
50. Dallas (from OKC) - Derrick Caracter (PF/C)
51. Oklahoma City (from POR) - Latavious Williams (SF/PF)
52. Boston - Omar Samhan (C)
53. Atlanta - Miroslav Raduljica (C)
54. LA Clippers (from DEN) - Sherron Collins (PG)
55. Utah - Da’Sean Butler (SF)
56. Minnesota (from PHO) - Sylven Landesberg (SG)
57. Indiana (from DAL) - Jon Scheyer (PG/SG)
58. LA Lakers - Tiny Gallon (PF/C)
59. Orlando - Charles Garcia (PF)
60. Phoenix (from CLE) - Lazar Hayward (SF)

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