Derrick Williams Writeup

Derrick Williams - So. SF/PF, Arizona

PER36min numbers against Quality Opponents (6 games):

24 pts, 11.1 rebs, 0.7 asts, 1.3 stls, 1.1 blks, 3.5 PFs, 3.1 TOs

53.4 FG%, 50.0 3pt% (5/10), 72.1 FT%, .93 FTA/FGA

Derrick Williams has a variety of opinions regarding how he’ll translate to the NBA level. Some think he has the tools to be a #1 option, some claim he’ll have to make the transition to SF to be effective, and some believe he’ll be like David West. What is not up for debate, however, is that he is an elite offensive weapon at the college level.

Early 2011 Prospect Lists:

The 2011 NBA Draft is 353 days away (thanks NBADraft.net), but that doesn't mean initial lists can't be made. Now, I'm not making a Big Board until the season gets much closer and I can find more stuff on the incoming freshman, but this will serve as sort of a "Watch List" for the upcoming season. I have the guys ranked in their potential NBA positions, and next to their names have schools and all class.

Below the fold will be the five lists...

Post 2010 Draft Analysis:

Obviously talent is a big factor in a player's success, but finding the right situation is also highly influential in how a player's career starts out. Below the fold will be who I think the winners and losers are in terms of the situation they landed in.

2010 NBA Draft - Mock Draft (Final)

It's time for my final mock draft - a little less than 8 hours before the real thing. Sifting through rumors and figuring out which ones to believe in is a time-consuming process... but I love doing it so it's a welcomed "chore".

Before I hit the actual mock, I want to discuss two trades which I think have a good chance at going down and thus I included them while making this mock draft.

The first is a trade between New Jersey and Sacramento. This deal would have the #3 pick (Cousins) going to Sacramento for the #5 pick (Johnson) and one of their PFs. Sacramento would ensure they get their franchise C, while New Jersey gets the SF they want, but pick up value.

The second is the rumored Minnesota/Detroit deal. Here, Minnesota would send out Al Jefferson and #16 for Tayshaun Prince and #7. More could be added, but I think those are the only two picks and "major" players involved.

Alright, time for the mock. I shortened down the commentary and added in a feature of my odds sheet with the % chance to reach a certain level. After each label, will be what I believe the odds are that they will be at least that good.

Lottery:
1. Washington - John Wall (PG):
Franchise player: 20%, Fringe All-Star: 90%
The Arenas era is over; the John Wall era has now begun. This pick is a lock now per reports.

2010 NBA Draft - Big Board (Final)

2010 Big Board: Rule - can go down one tier for need, makes tiers more flexible and blended

1. John Wall - Elite athlete who takes advantage of fast breaks and drives seams well. Great defensive potential and comes up with big plays on that end though sometimes has mental lapses. Can create his own shot with ease, but will need to work on refining his jumper to become a complete offensive player. Prone for handling errors and tends to force things at times, but can also do some spectacular things with the ball. Is a good mix of pure and scoring point guard tendencies.
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2. Derrick Favors - Physical specimen with rare combination of strength and athleticism. Could play either frontcourt spot offensively, but needs to work on his jumpshot if he’s to maximize his effectiveness at the ‘4’ and his post skills if he’s going to maximize his effectiveness at the ‘5’. Tends to lose his dribble when executing post moves, but has great hands and should be a monster in terms of efficiency. At his peak, he should be one of the best defenders and rebounders, but he might lack the desire or passion on the court to be a dominant offensive player.

Updated Mock Draft - June 15th, 2010

Latest Mock Draft after reading through various rumors and articles, as well as watching a lot of workout videos. As such, there's been a lot of shake-up in this mock compared to the last one.

1st Round:
1. Washington - John Wall (PG):
The Arenas era is over; the John Wall era has now begun. This pick is a lock now per reports.

2. Philadelphia - Evan Turner (SG/SF):
This pick could be moved so Philadelphia picks up more value as Turner and Iguodala duplicate each other’s strengths and weaknesses a little too much. I believe they would be almost equally as happy with Favors or Cousins, but right now Turner is the safer bet.

Odds Sheet Update - June 10th, 2010

Odds sheet uploaded here and added to the side-bar.

Just to give a brief rundown, the Odds Sheet is my way of rating players. At the moment, there are seven weighted categories: Franchise Player (Fran), Recurring All-Star (R-AS), Fringe All-Star (F-AS), Solid Starter (SS), Fringe Starter (FS), Decent Bench Player (DBP), and Out of the League (Out). I'm thinking of adding an eighth called End of Rotation Player (or something of the sort) to bridge the gap from being a decent bench player (7th/8th man) and those who never really become more than a 9th/10th man.

Anyway, each player is given a numeric value for each category which is the percent chance I think the prospect will end up playing at that level during his peak years. That value is then multiplied by the weighted value given to each category (10, 4, 2, 1, 1/2, 1/4, and -1/3 respectively according to the list of 7 above). This Rating is then another tool I use to help me mold my Big Board because it's another way of showing how I truly feel about a player instead of just listing their strengths, weaknesses, and then attempting to judge upside and the likelihood they reach 100% of their potential, 75% of their potential, etc.

Hope you enjoy.