Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Casper's Final 2011 NBA Mock Draft

Final 2011 Mock Draft with odds that the pick is dealt and brief summaries.

Many thanks to the following people for various rumors:
Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress)
Chad Ford (@chadfordinsider)
Scott Schroeder (@ScottSchroeder)

Don't forget to check out my Final Big Board


1. Cleveland (from LAC) - Kyrie Irving (PG), Duke:
Odds pick is dealt: Zero
The Cavs say “Thank you” to the Clippers for gifting them a franchise PG. Off-the-court drama could steal some of his spotlight on draft night.

2. Minnesota - Derrick Williams (PF/SF), Arizona:
Odds pick is dealt: 50%
The Wolves are stuck with a tough choice to make after they take Williams, either keep him and figure out how to make the rotation work with a forward-heavy roster, or deal him for a SG or C. There are so many rumors floating about, that I can’t do anything but label this 50:50.

3. Utah (from NJN) - Brandon Knight (PG/SG), Kentucky:
Odds pick is dealt: Minimal
Do the Jazz go guard here or at #12? That’s the million dollar question. It appears that they have fallen in love with Knight, but they are open to selecting Kanter or Vesely as well.

4. Cleveland - Enes Kanter (C/PF), Turkey:
Odds pick is dealt: 40%
After going Kyrie with their first pick, the Cavs look at going with a C with their second pick. With the selection of Kanter they will have a good PnR partner for Kyrie - and he’ll have the luxury of being able to develop while playing behind Varejao... something which may be needed given his situation last year. They could also move this pick to a team wanting to bid for Kanter, and then move back and take Valanciunas - something to keep an eye on.

5. Toronto - Kemba Walker (PG), Connecticut:
Odds pick is dealt: Minimal
Reports coming out of Toronto are muddled, and there are seemingly 5-6 prospects tied to them at this spot. The one thing I believe is that if Knight is here, he’s the pick - problem is he likely won’t be on the board. Therefore they take Walker who gives them a tough-nosed PG who can produce on both ends of the floor and is a leader in every sense of the word. Dwane Casey should love him.

6. Washington - Jan Vesely (SF/PF), KK Partizan Belgrade:
Odds pick is dealt: 40%
All reports point to the Wizards absolutely loving Vesely. If he can refine his shot from deep, watch out - Wall just found himself an uber-athletic Forward to run the floor with him. If they move the pick it’s going to be to land Kanter.

7. Sacramento - Kawhi Leonard (SF), San Diego State:
Odds pick is dealt: 25%
The Kings want an impact player at this spot, and while they could give Fredette a look because of his offensive fit next to Evans, I think they go with Leonard. Kawhi is able to be slotted in at SF and they will be able to cover up his offensive flaws while hopefully reaping the benefits of his defense and hustle. It’s possible that they move this pick to a team wanting Valanciunas.

8. Detroit - Jonas Valanciunas (C), Lietuvos Rytas:
Odds pick is dealt: 50%
The Jonas slide stops at #8. Will he stay with the Pistons? He could... but Monroe and Jonas are a questionable pairing and they may want some immediate help given the rumors that JV will have to stay at least one season in Europe before coming over. Whatever the case may be, this could be considered great value.

9. Charlotte - Marcus Morris (PF/SF), Kansas:
Odds pick is dealt: Minimal
Charlotte reportedly wants to come out of this draft with an NBA ready player who can help spread the floor. Enter Marcus Morris who can score efficiently from everywhere on the court and can possibly play both Forward spots... very safe choice.

10. Milwaukee - Alec Burks (SG), Colorado:
Odds pick is dealt: 40%
In dire need of improved efficiency out of the backcourt after ranking dead last in offensive efficiency in 2010-11, Milwaukee looks to find a SG who can fill it up. With Jennings loving to chuck up 3’s, they need a guy like Burks alongside him to take it to the rim. If they can move down and add more picks, it’s still possible they can get their guy.

11. Golden State - Chris Singleton (SF/PF), Florida State:
Odds pick is dealt: 25%
Reports coming out of Golden State point to West loving Thompson, but they also have their coach and GM preaching defense. I think they have to go defense here, preferably on the wing. Singleton is able to guard SG, SF, or PF and has also shown the ability to get out and run or knock down 3s - thus making him a good fit for the Warriors.

12. Utah - Marshon Brooks (SG), Providence:
Odds pick is dealt: 60%
The Jazz are left staring Jimmer in the face and are basically forced to pass on a guy hometown fans love. They could move up or down, but if they stay at 12, they could tab Marshon as a NBA-ready scorer with great length.

13. Phoenix - Tristan Thompson (PF), Texas:
Odds pick is dealt: 25%
Reports are that the Suns pick will come from a workout that featured Shumpert, the Morris twins, Singleton, Thompson, and Jimmer. I think Thompson gets the nod as what could turn out to be an upgrade to their PF spot right away despite being raw. Look for them to make a move to acquire a PG (Flynn?) in a deal that might involve this pick.

14. Houston - Bismack Biyombo (C/PF), Baloncesto Fuenlabrada:
Odds pick is dealt: 40%
Houston is still in need of a C, despite trading for Thabeet last season. In Biyombo, they acquire a guy with immense upside on the defensive end, but is as raw as can be offensively. That works for new coach Kevin McHale who wants defense and already has a guy in Scola who can get him buckets in the paint. If they can find a partner in the mid-lotto to trade with, they’ll do it.

15. Indiana - Jimmer Fredette (PG/SG), BYU:
Odds pick is dealt: Minimal
Coming off a nice season that saw them back in the playoffs for the first time in five years, Indiana takes Fredette who, despite having Collison as a starter, rounds out what could be a nice backcourt rotation by an outside shooter who can get incredibly hot.

16. Philadelphia - Klay Thompson (SG/SF), Washington State:
Odds pick is dealt: 25%
Very little is coming out of Philly about the draft, some of it may have to do with them having trouble getting prospects to work out for them, but there’s also the Iguodala rumors. I think if they move Iggy, they should take a wing that can spread the floor and work off the ball - enter Klay Thompson, who has been impressing in workouts.

17. New York - Iman Shumpert (SG), Georgia Tech:
Odds pick is dealt: Minimal
The Knicks need defense first and foremost. In Iman, they get a versatile defender with great tools while also being able to handle the ball a little. Word is that Knicks want him, and odds are there won’t be teams ahead of them who are going to spoil their party. Rumor has it they may want to move up and nab Biyombo - but what do they have to offer? I think they're stuck.

18. Washington (from ATL) - Donatas Motiejunas (PF/C), Benetton Treviso:
Odds pick is dealt: 50%
The Wizards nab Motiejunas who has great upside and can score in a variety of ways. He could be an eventual replacement for Blatche, and at this point represents solid value. As this isn’t an excellent fit, the Wizards could move the pick - especially if they move up to get Kanter.

19. Charlotte (from NOH) - Markieff Morris (PF), Kansas:
Odds pick is dealt: Minimal
The Bobcats nab the second Morris twin, hoping that their chemistry carries over. This isn’t just a sentimental pick, however - Markieff should be a good energy big off the bench that provides defense and rebounding, while also fitting the “safe” mantra that Charlotte is advocating.

20. Minnesota (from MEM) - Jordan Hamilton (SF/SG), Texas:
Odds pick is dealt: Extremely high
The Timberwolves really don’t have room to bring in two rookies as well as Rubio. Therefore, this pick is not representing what I think the Wolves will pick, but who reports consider BPA -Jordan Hamilton.

21. Portland - Nikola Vucevic (C), USC:
Odds pick is dealt: 40%
Portland lacks healthy size. Although Vucevic overlaps with LMA’s skillset, he should be able to play right away and reportedly has been doing well in workouts. Rumors are that Portland wants a vet, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see this moved in a package to acquire one.

22. Denver - Kenneth Faried (PF), Morehead State:
Odds pick is dealt: 25%
Faried fits the up-tempo style of play Denver likes to play and gives the Nuggets a strong rebounder and defender for a team that could possibly lose two of their bigs to free agency - not to mention they have a lot of scorers on the roster so his biggest weakness is covered up.

23. Houston (from ORL) - Tobias Harris (SF/PF), Tennessee:
Odds pick is dealt: 75%
Houston is another team that doesn’t really have room to bring in more rookies, however I could see them keeping the pick if someone like Harris fell. While he’s not similar to Battier as some claim, he is a very smart player who could see rotation minutes right away despite currently being 18.

24. Oklahoma City - Davis Bertans (SF), Union Olimpija Ljubljana:
Odds pick is dealt: 25%
The Thunder really have no rotational needs that can be satisfied with this pick, so they take Bertans who can be stashed overseas for another year or two before coming over.

25. Boston - Jeremy Tyler (C/PF), Tokyo Apache:
Odds pick is dealt: 40%
I have no idea what Boston will do here, because they only have a year or two left of their aging superstars, and then it’s just Rondo and maybe Green. Because of that, I’ll do something nonsensical and stick them with Tyler who is arguably the biggest unknown of the draft, but has great physical tools.

26. Dallas - Justin Harper (PF/SF), Richmond:
Odds pick is dealt: 25%
The Mavs really lose offensive firepower when Dirk goes to the bench - to the point where it’s going to be a problem. Yes, they are in “win now” mode, but I could see Harper playing a role on this team next year... possibly an important one off the bench.

27. New Jersey (from LAL) - Tyler Honeycutt (SF/SG), UCLA:
Odds pick is dealt: 75%
It’s being reported that the Nets want to move up from this spot, and it trying to use #35 in order to do so. However, if they do not move up, I think Honeycutt makes sense as a versatile wing that is a bit of a project.

28. Chicago (from MIA) - Charles Jenkins (PG/SG), Hofstra:
Odds pick is dealt: 60%
If they can’t move this pick, Chicago could go with Jenkins - a comboguard who is NBA ready and can create for himself and others.

29. San Antonio - Kyle Singler (SF/PF), Duke:
Odds pick is dealt: Minimal
The Spurs aren’t giving up hope that their window has closed. As such, they take a guy who can help them immediately as long as he improves his shot selection.

30. Chicago - Bojan Bogdanovic (SG/SF), Cibona VIP Zagreb:
Odds pick is dealt: 40%
Again, another pick they will try to move... however this one will be harder. If they can’t move it, I see them taking a guy they can stash overseas and hope it pays dividends when they finally come over. In this case, it’s one of the best scorers in Europe: Bojan Bogdanovic.

31. Miami (from MIN) - Reggie Jackson (PG/SG), Boston College
32. Cleveland - Jimmy Butler (SF), Marquette
33. Detroit (from TOR) - Darius Morris (PG/SG), Michigan
34. Washington - Malcolm Lee (SG/PG), UCLA
35. New Jersey - Nikola Mirotic (PF), Real Madrid
36. Sacramento - Josh Selby (SG/PG), Kansas
37. LA Clippers (from DET) - JaJuan Johnson (PF), Purdue
38. Houston (from LAC) - Travis Leslie (SG), Georgia
39. Charlotte - Nolan Smith (PG/SG), Duke
40. Milwaukee - Norris Cole (PG), Cleveland State
41. LA Lakers (from GSW) - Cory Joseph (PG), Texas
42. Indiana - Chandler Parsons (SF), Florida
43. Chicago (from UTA) - Jon Leuer (C), Wisconsin
44. Golden State (from PHX) - Jordan Williams (C), Maryland
45. New Orleans (from PHI) - E’Twaun Moore (SG), Purdue
46. LA Lakers (from NYK) - Scotty Hopson (SG/SF), Tennessee
47. LA Clippers (from HOU) - Trey Thompkins (PF), Georgia
48. Atlanta - Shelvin Mack (SG/PG), Butler
49. Memphis - Keith Benson (PF/C), Oakland
50. Philadelphia (from NOH) - Greg Smith (PF/C), Fresno State
51. Portland - Demetri McCamey (PG), Illinois
52. Detroit (from DEN) - Jereme Richmond (SF), Illinois
53. Orlando - David Lighty (SG/SF), Ohio State
54. Cleveland (from OKC) - Xavi Rabaseda (SG), Baloncesto Fuenlabrada
55. Boston - Ben Hansbrough (PG/SG), Notre Dame
56. LA Lakers - Isaiah Thomas (PG/SG), Washington
57. Dallas - Josh Harrellson (C), Kentucky
58. LA Lakers (from MIA) - Robin Benzig (SF/PF), Ratiopharm Ulm
59. San Antonio - Giorgi Shermadini (C), Union Olimpija Ljubljana
60. Sacramento (from CHI) - Andrew Goudelock (PG), Charleston

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