For the last two year's I have made a sheet displaying how likely I think it is that a player will reach a certain level after he's reached his peak or 4-5 years after he's been drafted. I have divided the levels into seven categories: Franchise player, recurring all-star, fringe all-star, solid starter, fringe starter, decent bench player, or out of the league.
The first such sheet for this season can be seen here
On the far right column, the rating of the player can be seen. This is a basic formula where the odds of each category are each given a certain value (with out of the league carrying a negative rating), and then are added together to give the final score. The rating provides me with yet another useful tool when ranking players, as I figure out another way to extract how I truly feel about the prospects of a player instead of just some blanketed overview.
Disagree with some of the odds? Don't like how this is done? Let me know - you can find me on twitter under HoopsCasper.
Monday, April 26, 2010
Saturday, April 17, 2010
Consensus Big Board 4-17-2010
So the college season ended and I gave every site I follow a week or so to update their big board so that I could get the latest Consensus Rankings up. Lots of people moved around, some jumped up noticeably (I'm looking at you Daniel Orton) while others slid down because of all the movers.
This will be the last update of the Consensus Rankings until after some more prospect info goes out, so probably sometime in early May. So I'll leave you with the latest updated average rankings of players on their big boards (DX, nba-draft.com, ESPN, and yours truly - respectively):
1. John Wall - Fr. PG (1,1,1,1):
ESPN Profile
2. Evan Turner - Jr. SG/SF (2,2,2,2):
ESPN Profile
3. DeMarcus Cousins - Fr. PF/C (3,3,4,4):
ESPN Profile
4. Derrick Favors - Fr. PF (4,4,3,3):
ESPN Profile
This will be the last update of the Consensus Rankings until after some more prospect info goes out, so probably sometime in early May. So I'll leave you with the latest updated average rankings of players on their big boards (DX, nba-draft.com, ESPN, and yours truly - respectively):
1. John Wall - Fr. PG (1,1,1,1):
ESPN Profile
2. Evan Turner - Jr. SG/SF (2,2,2,2):
ESPN Profile
3. DeMarcus Cousins - Fr. PF/C (3,3,4,4):
ESPN Profile
4. Derrick Favors - Fr. PF (4,4,3,3):
ESPN Profile
Monday, April 12, 2010
Devin Ebanks Writeup
Devin Ebanks - So. SF/PF, West Virginia
Per36min numbers against Quality Opponents (27 games):
12.2 pts, 8.6 rebs, 2.7 asts, 1.1 stls, 0.5 blks, 1.7 PFs, 2.3 TOs
47.2 FG%, 15.8 3pt% (3/19), 76.2 FT%, .55 FTA/FGA
Devin Ebanks may be the consummate role player at the SF spot. He plays with energy on both ends, he crashes the boards, he is unselfish and moves the ball well, he is an outstanding man defender and great team defender, he can score efficiently from within 15 feet, and he can knock his FTs down.
At 6’8, 210lbs Ebanks is not a physically imposing player. However, even though he only has above average length and athleticism in NBA terms, he is a menace on the defensive end and can play in the paint as well as well as check the opposing team’s most talented offensive player. While he doesn’t posses great straight-line speed with the ball in his hands, he is fast moving without the ball. Even though he only has mediocre leaping ability, he is efficient finishing inside and does a great job challenging shots. Even though his lateral quickness isn’t elite, he understands positioning defensively to cut off lanes and stay in front of his man. Honestly, his biggest advantage athletically over his SF competition may be that he never appears to tire, especially on the defensive end.
Per36min numbers against Quality Opponents (27 games):
12.2 pts, 8.6 rebs, 2.7 asts, 1.1 stls, 0.5 blks, 1.7 PFs, 2.3 TOs
47.2 FG%, 15.8 3pt% (3/19), 76.2 FT%, .55 FTA/FGA
Devin Ebanks may be the consummate role player at the SF spot. He plays with energy on both ends, he crashes the boards, he is unselfish and moves the ball well, he is an outstanding man defender and great team defender, he can score efficiently from within 15 feet, and he can knock his FTs down.
At 6’8, 210lbs Ebanks is not a physically imposing player. However, even though he only has above average length and athleticism in NBA terms, he is a menace on the defensive end and can play in the paint as well as well as check the opposing team’s most talented offensive player. While he doesn’t posses great straight-line speed with the ball in his hands, he is fast moving without the ball. Even though he only has mediocre leaping ability, he is efficient finishing inside and does a great job challenging shots. Even though his lateral quickness isn’t elite, he understands positioning defensively to cut off lanes and stay in front of his man. Honestly, his biggest advantage athletically over his SF competition may be that he never appears to tire, especially on the defensive end.
Thursday, April 1, 2010
NBA Mock Draft (4-1-2010)
Mock Time!
John Henson, Kemba Walker, Elias Harris, Luke Babbitt, Jordan Crawford, and Jeff Taylor were excluded from the mock. The rest of the guys listed above are fair game. You can see I added Vesely and Motiejunas to the big board since the last mock, but I'm certainly not knowledgeable about either, going to do my best on placing them, however.
1. New Jersey - John Wall (PG):
Ba-dow!
2. Minnesota - Evan Turner (SG/SF):
No Wall? Okay, I'd be kind of bummed, but getting Turner would still be fantastic and fill a big... no... humongous need. 35mpg of great all-around play straight out.
John Henson, Kemba Walker, Elias Harris, Luke Babbitt, Jordan Crawford, and Jeff Taylor were excluded from the mock. The rest of the guys listed above are fair game. You can see I added Vesely and Motiejunas to the big board since the last mock, but I'm certainly not knowledgeable about either, going to do my best on placing them, however.
1. New Jersey - John Wall (PG):
Ba-dow!
2. Minnesota - Evan Turner (SG/SF):
No Wall? Okay, I'd be kind of bummed, but getting Turner would still be fantastic and fill a big... no... humongous need. 35mpg of great all-around play straight out.
NBA Draft Big Board (April 1st, 2010)
It's that time again.
Tournament is basically over for the notable prospects on most people's boards, but I'm an Ebanks superfan so I'm still paying lots of attention. Anyway, there's a lull before Saturday's game, so I threw this together for kicks. Big Board has flexible tiers, so going down one tier for a much greater need is alright. Mock excludes Henson, Walker, Harris, and Babbitt off my board, because I'm skeptical that those guys will enter. All the rest are fair game.
Tier 1:
1. John Wall
Tier 2:
2. Evan Turner
Tournament is basically over for the notable prospects on most people's boards, but I'm an Ebanks superfan so I'm still paying lots of attention. Anyway, there's a lull before Saturday's game, so I threw this together for kicks. Big Board has flexible tiers, so going down one tier for a much greater need is alright. Mock excludes Henson, Walker, Harris, and Babbitt off my board, because I'm skeptical that those guys will enter. All the rest are fair game.
Tier 1:
1. John Wall
Tier 2:
2. Evan Turner
Friday, March 26, 2010
Consensus Rankings of 2009-10 Season
Once the college season commenced, I started keeping track of the rankings of players on the three major sites I followed, as well as my own. Once I stumbled upon nba-draft.com, I added them to the consensus as they seemed to update their Big Board fairly regularly, and it was a quality website so I felt it was a great addition. During the periods which NBADraft.net hasn't kept their big board current, I have dropped them from the rankings so they aren't as skewed.
Basically, I have logged these so that we could get a true feel for how player rankings have changed throughout the year. DraftExpress.com is the only site which keeps a history of some sort on rankings, and this transparency is a good thing because it gives their audience a better view of how a player's stock changed throughout the year in the eyes of DX. However, they only keep track of a history on how a players standing changed in their Mock Drafts, but I'm more curious as to how Big Boards change.
This led to me tracking the change of the Big Boards of the "major" NBA draft websites. The file where you can see these rankings can be found here. After the break, I'll give an overview of how it is all set up.
Basically, I have logged these so that we could get a true feel for how player rankings have changed throughout the year. DraftExpress.com is the only site which keeps a history of some sort on rankings, and this transparency is a good thing because it gives their audience a better view of how a player's stock changed throughout the year in the eyes of DX. However, they only keep track of a history on how a players standing changed in their Mock Drafts, but I'm more curious as to how Big Boards change.
This led to me tracking the change of the Big Boards of the "major" NBA draft websites. The file where you can see these rankings can be found here. After the break, I'll give an overview of how it is all set up.
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Consensus Big Board
Roughly every week I go through the major draft websites I follow and track the rankings of prospects on their big boards. I do not track mock drafts as one website may have a prospect listed in their 2010 mock, while another has them listed in their 2011 mock and then how is one supposed to determine how to rank such a prospect for the 2010 NBA Draft when we, at this point, do not know for sure who is declaring this year? As such, I track the big boards of those websites, as they do not (or should not) segregate prospects based on when they think they will declare, but rather they rank them on how they feel their current talent and potential will translate to the NBA level.
I normally include nbadraft.net in these rankings, but as they haven't updated their big board since the middle of January, I have excluded them as it distorts the current state of the general consensus. Also, in these posts I will only go out to the top-25, however I plan on uploading the spreadsheet I keep with has the rankings of all the prospects I track and how the rankings have changed throughout the year.
Enough of the discussion, here are the updated average rankings of players according to the big boards (DX, nba-draft.com, ESPN, and yours truly - respectively):
1. John Wall - Fr. PG (1,1,1,1):
ESPN Profile
2. Evan Turner - Jr. SG/SF (2,2,2,2):
ESPN Profile
I normally include nbadraft.net in these rankings, but as they haven't updated their big board since the middle of January, I have excluded them as it distorts the current state of the general consensus. Also, in these posts I will only go out to the top-25, however I plan on uploading the spreadsheet I keep with has the rankings of all the prospects I track and how the rankings have changed throughout the year.
Enough of the discussion, here are the updated average rankings of players according to the big boards (DX, nba-draft.com, ESPN, and yours truly - respectively):
1. John Wall - Fr. PG (1,1,1,1):
ESPN Profile
2. Evan Turner - Jr. SG/SF (2,2,2,2):
ESPN Profile
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