So I wrote up this article for a Timberwolves forum two years back about how bad the Timberwolves luck has been in the lottery. I had used the DraftExpress Lottery History page to formulate all the odds for the #1 and #2 picks (the #2 pick odds had to be estimated for 1990-1993), and then went on to describe how unlucky the Timberwolves were.
Well today, I decided to do more than that. I have gone through and used that DX page to get the odds on every team for each season from 1990 to 2009 (check the starred rows on the sheets marked #1 and #2 for the %s), and then went through to describe how lucky or unlucky some of the teams have been. The results are after the jump.
Monday, May 17, 2010
Saturday, May 15, 2010
Paul George Writeup
Paul George - So. SG/SF, Fresno State
Per36min numbers against Quality Opponents (10 games):
17.8 pts, 7.1 rebs, 3.3 asts, 2.1 stls, 0.6 blks, 4.3 TOs, 2.9 PFs
35.5 FG%, 27.3 3pt% (15/55), 90.0 FT%, .43 FTA/FGA
After two years of playing at Fresno State, Paul George is a relative enigma to the casual fan. Playing in the WAC did not offer him many opportunities to go up against quality NCAA teams, as the best WAC teams of the past two seasons (Utah State and Nevada) did not exactly offer the type of NBA-caliber talent to go up against that teams in the major conferences could. However, the diligent fan could find games being streamed online, and in those games they could see that his talent stood out on the court.
Per36min numbers against Quality Opponents (10 games):
17.8 pts, 7.1 rebs, 3.3 asts, 2.1 stls, 0.6 blks, 4.3 TOs, 2.9 PFs
35.5 FG%, 27.3 3pt% (15/55), 90.0 FT%, .43 FTA/FGA
After two years of playing at Fresno State, Paul George is a relative enigma to the casual fan. Playing in the WAC did not offer him many opportunities to go up against quality NCAA teams, as the best WAC teams of the past two seasons (Utah State and Nevada) did not exactly offer the type of NBA-caliber talent to go up against that teams in the major conferences could. However, the diligent fan could find games being streamed online, and in those games they could see that his talent stood out on the court.
Monday, April 26, 2010
Draft Prospect Odds Sheet 4-26-2010
For the last two year's I have made a sheet displaying how likely I think it is that a player will reach a certain level after he's reached his peak or 4-5 years after he's been drafted. I have divided the levels into seven categories: Franchise player, recurring all-star, fringe all-star, solid starter, fringe starter, decent bench player, or out of the league.
The first such sheet for this season can be seen here
On the far right column, the rating of the player can be seen. This is a basic formula where the odds of each category are each given a certain value (with out of the league carrying a negative rating), and then are added together to give the final score. The rating provides me with yet another useful tool when ranking players, as I figure out another way to extract how I truly feel about the prospects of a player instead of just some blanketed overview.
Disagree with some of the odds? Don't like how this is done? Let me know - you can find me on twitter under HoopsCasper.
The first such sheet for this season can be seen here
On the far right column, the rating of the player can be seen. This is a basic formula where the odds of each category are each given a certain value (with out of the league carrying a negative rating), and then are added together to give the final score. The rating provides me with yet another useful tool when ranking players, as I figure out another way to extract how I truly feel about the prospects of a player instead of just some blanketed overview.
Disagree with some of the odds? Don't like how this is done? Let me know - you can find me on twitter under HoopsCasper.
Saturday, April 17, 2010
Consensus Big Board 4-17-2010
So the college season ended and I gave every site I follow a week or so to update their big board so that I could get the latest Consensus Rankings up. Lots of people moved around, some jumped up noticeably (I'm looking at you Daniel Orton) while others slid down because of all the movers.
This will be the last update of the Consensus Rankings until after some more prospect info goes out, so probably sometime in early May. So I'll leave you with the latest updated average rankings of players on their big boards (DX, nba-draft.com, ESPN, and yours truly - respectively):
1. John Wall - Fr. PG (1,1,1,1):
ESPN Profile
2. Evan Turner - Jr. SG/SF (2,2,2,2):
ESPN Profile
3. DeMarcus Cousins - Fr. PF/C (3,3,4,4):
ESPN Profile
4. Derrick Favors - Fr. PF (4,4,3,3):
ESPN Profile
This will be the last update of the Consensus Rankings until after some more prospect info goes out, so probably sometime in early May. So I'll leave you with the latest updated average rankings of players on their big boards (DX, nba-draft.com, ESPN, and yours truly - respectively):
1. John Wall - Fr. PG (1,1,1,1):
ESPN Profile
2. Evan Turner - Jr. SG/SF (2,2,2,2):
ESPN Profile
3. DeMarcus Cousins - Fr. PF/C (3,3,4,4):
ESPN Profile
4. Derrick Favors - Fr. PF (4,4,3,3):
ESPN Profile
Monday, April 12, 2010
Devin Ebanks Writeup
Devin Ebanks - So. SF/PF, West Virginia
Per36min numbers against Quality Opponents (27 games):
12.2 pts, 8.6 rebs, 2.7 asts, 1.1 stls, 0.5 blks, 1.7 PFs, 2.3 TOs
47.2 FG%, 15.8 3pt% (3/19), 76.2 FT%, .55 FTA/FGA
Devin Ebanks may be the consummate role player at the SF spot. He plays with energy on both ends, he crashes the boards, he is unselfish and moves the ball well, he is an outstanding man defender and great team defender, he can score efficiently from within 15 feet, and he can knock his FTs down.
At 6’8, 210lbs Ebanks is not a physically imposing player. However, even though he only has above average length and athleticism in NBA terms, he is a menace on the defensive end and can play in the paint as well as well as check the opposing team’s most talented offensive player. While he doesn’t posses great straight-line speed with the ball in his hands, he is fast moving without the ball. Even though he only has mediocre leaping ability, he is efficient finishing inside and does a great job challenging shots. Even though his lateral quickness isn’t elite, he understands positioning defensively to cut off lanes and stay in front of his man. Honestly, his biggest advantage athletically over his SF competition may be that he never appears to tire, especially on the defensive end.
Per36min numbers against Quality Opponents (27 games):
12.2 pts, 8.6 rebs, 2.7 asts, 1.1 stls, 0.5 blks, 1.7 PFs, 2.3 TOs
47.2 FG%, 15.8 3pt% (3/19), 76.2 FT%, .55 FTA/FGA
Devin Ebanks may be the consummate role player at the SF spot. He plays with energy on both ends, he crashes the boards, he is unselfish and moves the ball well, he is an outstanding man defender and great team defender, he can score efficiently from within 15 feet, and he can knock his FTs down.
At 6’8, 210lbs Ebanks is not a physically imposing player. However, even though he only has above average length and athleticism in NBA terms, he is a menace on the defensive end and can play in the paint as well as well as check the opposing team’s most talented offensive player. While he doesn’t posses great straight-line speed with the ball in his hands, he is fast moving without the ball. Even though he only has mediocre leaping ability, he is efficient finishing inside and does a great job challenging shots. Even though his lateral quickness isn’t elite, he understands positioning defensively to cut off lanes and stay in front of his man. Honestly, his biggest advantage athletically over his SF competition may be that he never appears to tire, especially on the defensive end.
Thursday, April 1, 2010
NBA Mock Draft (4-1-2010)
Mock Time!
John Henson, Kemba Walker, Elias Harris, Luke Babbitt, Jordan Crawford, and Jeff Taylor were excluded from the mock. The rest of the guys listed above are fair game. You can see I added Vesely and Motiejunas to the big board since the last mock, but I'm certainly not knowledgeable about either, going to do my best on placing them, however.
1. New Jersey - John Wall (PG):
Ba-dow!
2. Minnesota - Evan Turner (SG/SF):
No Wall? Okay, I'd be kind of bummed, but getting Turner would still be fantastic and fill a big... no... humongous need. 35mpg of great all-around play straight out.
John Henson, Kemba Walker, Elias Harris, Luke Babbitt, Jordan Crawford, and Jeff Taylor were excluded from the mock. The rest of the guys listed above are fair game. You can see I added Vesely and Motiejunas to the big board since the last mock, but I'm certainly not knowledgeable about either, going to do my best on placing them, however.
1. New Jersey - John Wall (PG):
Ba-dow!
2. Minnesota - Evan Turner (SG/SF):
No Wall? Okay, I'd be kind of bummed, but getting Turner would still be fantastic and fill a big... no... humongous need. 35mpg of great all-around play straight out.
NBA Draft Big Board (April 1st, 2010)
It's that time again.
Tournament is basically over for the notable prospects on most people's boards, but I'm an Ebanks superfan so I'm still paying lots of attention. Anyway, there's a lull before Saturday's game, so I threw this together for kicks. Big Board has flexible tiers, so going down one tier for a much greater need is alright. Mock excludes Henson, Walker, Harris, and Babbitt off my board, because I'm skeptical that those guys will enter. All the rest are fair game.
Tier 1:
1. John Wall
Tier 2:
2. Evan Turner
Tournament is basically over for the notable prospects on most people's boards, but I'm an Ebanks superfan so I'm still paying lots of attention. Anyway, there's a lull before Saturday's game, so I threw this together for kicks. Big Board has flexible tiers, so going down one tier for a much greater need is alright. Mock excludes Henson, Walker, Harris, and Babbitt off my board, because I'm skeptical that those guys will enter. All the rest are fair game.
Tier 1:
1. John Wall
Tier 2:
2. Evan Turner
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
