Casper's Final 2011 NBA Mock Draft

Final 2011 Mock Draft with odds that the pick is dealt and brief summaries.

Many thanks to the following people for various rumors:
Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress)
Chad Ford (@chadfordinsider)
Scott Schroeder (@ScottSchroeder)

Don't forget to check out my Final Big Board

Enjoy!

1. Cleveland (from LAC) - Kyrie Irving (PG), Duke:
Odds pick is dealt: Zero
The Cavs say “Thank you” to the Clippers for gifting them a franchise PG. Off-the-court drama could steal some of his spotlight on draft night.

2. Minnesota - Derrick Williams (PF/SF), Arizona:
Odds pick is dealt: 50%
The Wolves are stuck with a tough choice to make after they take Williams, either keep him and figure out how to make the rotation work with a forward-heavy roster, or deal him for a SG or C. There are so many rumors floating about, that I can’t do anything but label this 50:50.

3. Utah (from NJN) - Brandon Knight (PG/SG), Kentucky:
Odds pick is dealt: Minimal
Do the Jazz go guard here or at #12? That’s the million dollar question. It appears that they have fallen in love with Knight, but they are open to selecting Kanter or Vesely as well.

Casper's Final 2011 NBA Draft Big Board

Final rankings of players, with Tiers and likely ranges (guys who are considered to have the 2nd round be the highest they will be drafted labeled 31-Undrafted) - players tabbed as 1st rounders have the teams who appear to have the most interest in them.

Tier 1:
1. Kyrie Irving - Fr. PG, Duke
Range: 1-2 --- Most likely: Cavaliers

Tier 2:
2. Derrick Williams - So. PF/SF, Arizona
Range: 1-2 --- Most likely: Timberwolves

Tier 3:
3. Jonas Valanciunas - 1992 C, Lietuvos Rytas
Range: 4-11 --- Most likely: Cavaliers, Pistons

4. Enes Kanter - 1992 PF/C, Kentucky
Range: 3-8 --- Most likely: Cavaliers, Wizards

5. Kemba Walker - Jr. PG, Connecticut
Range: 3-8 --- Most likely: Raptors, Kings

Consensus Big Board Update (April 29th, 2011)

Consensus Big Board from DX, nba-draft.com, ESPN, briansbigboard, and yours truly - respectively

1. Kyrie Irving - Fr. PG: (1,1,1,1,1) Profile

2. Derrick Williams - So. PF/SF: (2,2,2,2,2) Profile

3. Enes Kanter - 1992 PF/C: (7,3,3,5,3) Profile

4. Kemba Walker - Jr. PG: (4,5,5,4,8) Profile

5. Jonas Valanciunas - 1992 C: (3,4,4,13,4) Profile

Post Early Entrant Deadline Big Board

2011 Big Board: Rules - (1) Can go down one tier for need, makes tiers more flexible and blended, (2) Skills are judged based on the position the player is projected to play.

Tier 1:
1. Kyrie Irving - Fr. PG, Duke
Smooth player whose athleticism and physical tools are overlooked due to his high skill level. Has an uncanny ability to get to the rim due to elite ball handling, including an awesome utilization of changing speeds to catch the defender off balance. Very efficient jump shooter that can create space for himself and knock down shots at high efficiency both from mid-range and beyond the 3pt line. Kyrie also possesses remarkable court vision and playmaking abilities for a PG prospect, which makes him a deadly offensive player. Defensively, he rarely takes a possession off and comes up with positive plays with regularity - however he was rarely tested at the college level. Overall, Kyrie is an excellent mix of offense and defense while also possessing a NBA size. The only downside is if his toe becomes an issue.
NBA Role: Two-way franchise PG
Elite skills/traits: Handling, shot selection, penetration, overall BBIQ
Proficient skills/traits: Jump shot, shot creation, finishing, drawing fouls, passing, court vision, overall defense, quickness, athleticism, intensity
Mediocre skills/traits: Rebounding, height, length
Substandard skills/traits:
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Tier 3:
2. Derrick Williams - So. PF/SF, Arizona
Efficient player both in the post and spotting up from distance. Had mixed results against competition with NBA-caliber big men - Texas and Connecticut posed trouble, whereas Kansas and Duke did not. He is among the best at drawing fouls and getting to the line where he knocks them down with some regularity. Has a smooth spot-up jumper, but is not comfortable creating a jump shot at this point because he lacks ball-handling ability on the perimeter. Average rebounder, but could easily improve if he works on fundamentals. Defensively, Derrick does not always give effort and when he does he’s not always effective. Clutch performer who both wants the ball and wants to guard the ball on key possessions. At his peak could be one of the more dangerous offensive players in the league and a regular 20ppg scorer.
NBA Role: All-star caliber stretch 4
Elite skills/traits: Hands, shot selection, finishing, drawing fouls, athleticism, intensity
Proficient skills/traits: Jump shot, post-up game, shot creation, length, strength, offensive BBIQ
Mediocre skills/traits: Penetration, passing, court vision, perimeter defense, off-ball defense, rebounding, height
Substandard skills/traits: Handling, post defense, defensive BBIQ

Consensus Big Board Update (April 6th, 2011)

Time for the post-NCAA Tournament big board consensus. Lots of movement from the last one (to view all consensus boards from this season, follow this link). Derrick Williams moved up from #5 to #2, while Brandon Knight went from #16 to #10. Meanwhile, guys like Perry Jones III (#3 to #5), Terrence Jones (#7 to #11), and Jordan Hamilton (#13 to #18) all fell. There will likely be a lot more movement in the upcoming weeks even though the college season is over, so stay tuned.

Without further ado, here are the latest rankings (DX, nbadraft.net, nba-draft.com, ESPN, briansbigboard, and yours truly - respectively).

1. Kyrie Irving - Fr. PG: (1,3,1,1,1,1) Player Profile

2. Derrick Williams - So. PF: (2,1,2,2,3,4) Player Profile

3. Harrison Barnes - Fr. SF: (5,2,3,3,4,3) Player Profile

4. Jared Sullinger - Fr. PF: (4,5,4,4,2,2) Player Profile

5. Perry Jones III - Fr. SF/PF: (6,9,5,5,8,5) Player Profile

Consensus Big Board Update (March 14, 2011)

It's been a while since I had an update, and for those who look at this site I apologize because I've been quite busy with other things. However, since the tournament is about to begin, I thought I'd get another update of the Consensus Big Board in so everyone can see how rankings change because of tournament performances.

(DX, nbadraft.net, nba-draft.com, ESPN, briansbigboard, and yours truly - respectively)

1. Kyrie Irving - Fr. PG: (1,2,3,1,1,1) Player Profile

2. Jared Sullinger - Fr. PF: (3,4,2,3,2,2) Player Profile

3. Perry Jones - Fr. SF/PF: (4,1,1,2,7,4) Player Profile

4. Derrick Williams - So. PF: (5,3,7,5,3,7) Player Profile

5. Harrison Barnes - Fr. SF: (12,6,6,4,5,3) Player Profile

Derrick Williams Writeup

Derrick Williams - So. SF/PF, Arizona

PER36min numbers against Quality Opponents (6 games):

24 pts, 11.1 rebs, 0.7 asts, 1.3 stls, 1.1 blks, 3.5 PFs, 3.1 TOs

53.4 FG%, 50.0 3pt% (5/10), 72.1 FT%, .93 FTA/FGA

Derrick Williams has a variety of opinions regarding how he’ll translate to the NBA level. Some think he has the tools to be a #1 option, some claim he’ll have to make the transition to SF to be effective, and some believe he’ll be like David West. What is not up for debate, however, is that he is an elite offensive weapon at the college level.

Early 2011 Prospect Lists:

The 2011 NBA Draft is 353 days away (thanks NBADraft.net), but that doesn't mean initial lists can't be made. Now, I'm not making a Big Board until the season gets much closer and I can find more stuff on the incoming freshman, but this will serve as sort of a "Watch List" for the upcoming season. I have the guys ranked in their potential NBA positions, and next to their names have schools and all class.

Below the fold will be the five lists...

Post 2010 Draft Analysis:

Obviously talent is a big factor in a player's success, but finding the right situation is also highly influential in how a player's career starts out. Below the fold will be who I think the winners and losers are in terms of the situation they landed in.

2010 NBA Draft - Mock Draft (Final)

It's time for my final mock draft - a little less than 8 hours before the real thing. Sifting through rumors and figuring out which ones to believe in is a time-consuming process... but I love doing it so it's a welcomed "chore".

Before I hit the actual mock, I want to discuss two trades which I think have a good chance at going down and thus I included them while making this mock draft.

The first is a trade between New Jersey and Sacramento. This deal would have the #3 pick (Cousins) going to Sacramento for the #5 pick (Johnson) and one of their PFs. Sacramento would ensure they get their franchise C, while New Jersey gets the SF they want, but pick up value.

The second is the rumored Minnesota/Detroit deal. Here, Minnesota would send out Al Jefferson and #16 for Tayshaun Prince and #7. More could be added, but I think those are the only two picks and "major" players involved.

Alright, time for the mock. I shortened down the commentary and added in a feature of my odds sheet with the % chance to reach a certain level. After each label, will be what I believe the odds are that they will be at least that good.

Lottery:
1. Washington - John Wall (PG):
Franchise player: 20%, Fringe All-Star: 90%
The Arenas era is over; the John Wall era has now begun. This pick is a lock now per reports.

2010 NBA Draft - Big Board (Final)

2010 Big Board: Rule - can go down one tier for need, makes tiers more flexible and blended

1. John Wall - Elite athlete who takes advantage of fast breaks and drives seams well. Great defensive potential and comes up with big plays on that end though sometimes has mental lapses. Can create his own shot with ease, but will need to work on refining his jumper to become a complete offensive player. Prone for handling errors and tends to force things at times, but can also do some spectacular things with the ball. Is a good mix of pure and scoring point guard tendencies.
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2. Derrick Favors - Physical specimen with rare combination of strength and athleticism. Could play either frontcourt spot offensively, but needs to work on his jumpshot if he’s to maximize his effectiveness at the ‘4’ and his post skills if he’s going to maximize his effectiveness at the ‘5’. Tends to lose his dribble when executing post moves, but has great hands and should be a monster in terms of efficiency. At his peak, he should be one of the best defenders and rebounders, but he might lack the desire or passion on the court to be a dominant offensive player.

Updated Mock Draft - June 15th, 2010

Latest Mock Draft after reading through various rumors and articles, as well as watching a lot of workout videos. As such, there's been a lot of shake-up in this mock compared to the last one.

1st Round:
1. Washington - John Wall (PG):
The Arenas era is over; the John Wall era has now begun. This pick is a lock now per reports.

2. Philadelphia - Evan Turner (SG/SF):
This pick could be moved so Philadelphia picks up more value as Turner and Iguodala duplicate each other’s strengths and weaknesses a little too much. I believe they would be almost equally as happy with Favors or Cousins, but right now Turner is the safer bet.

Odds Sheet Update - June 10th, 2010

Odds sheet uploaded here and added to the side-bar.

Just to give a brief rundown, the Odds Sheet is my way of rating players. At the moment, there are seven weighted categories: Franchise Player (Fran), Recurring All-Star (R-AS), Fringe All-Star (F-AS), Solid Starter (SS), Fringe Starter (FS), Decent Bench Player (DBP), and Out of the League (Out). I'm thinking of adding an eighth called End of Rotation Player (or something of the sort) to bridge the gap from being a decent bench player (7th/8th man) and those who never really become more than a 9th/10th man.

Anyway, each player is given a numeric value for each category which is the percent chance I think the prospect will end up playing at that level during his peak years. That value is then multiplied by the weighted value given to each category (10, 4, 2, 1, 1/2, 1/4, and -1/3 respectively according to the list of 7 above). This Rating is then another tool I use to help me mold my Big Board because it's another way of showing how I truly feel about a player instead of just listing their strengths, weaknesses, and then attempting to judge upside and the likelihood they reach 100% of their potential, 75% of their potential, etc.

Hope you enjoy.

Consensus Big Board Rankings 6-07-2010

I finally got around to updating the latest Consensus Big Board rankings. I had been waiting for nbadraft.net and nba-draft.com to update their rankings; and since they both recently did... well... I could do my thing.

For those who are unaware, I take the Big Board rankings of the four major sites I look at for Big Boards (DX, nbadraft.net, nba-draft.com, and ESPN), then add in my own, and the average rankings make up the Consensus Big Board. This consensus gives everyone a better idea of where players may rank at the current point in time, and the database allows for all of us to see how a prospect's stock has fallen or risen as the days pass. The last update I did was May 2nd, and as you can see here (a link is also under the "Useful Files" tab on the sidebar), a lot of things have changed since then. The brief analysis of these rankings will be discussed below the fold.

June 2nd, 2010 - Mock Draft (full)

Alright, next up is the first full mock of the year.

Before this update, I had just done the first round, but I have now added the second round as I had time to read up and watch a bit more videos on the international prospects I wasn't too familiar with, while also seeing measurements and all that good stuff. This mock was done based on whatever news and rumors I have been come across about the stock of certain prospects, as well as what I think would make good sense where there hasn't been much news.

Going to save you from reading any more non-draft stuff. Remember to hit up the Big Board if you are curious about how I view a player.

Here it is:

Lottery:
1. Washington - John Wall (PG):
The Arenas era is over; the John Wall era has now begun. This pick is a lock.

June 2nd, 2010 - Big Board

Been a little busy enjoying the summer, but I'm back working on this site again to get us all ready for the draft.

I just finished doing a major update to my big board, where instead of just having their name next to their rank, I now have a short synopsis of how I view the players and their attributes. Now, admittedly I am not an international expert, so those players will have shorter descriptions which may be far less helpful than looking at their respective DX, nbadraft.net, or ESPN page - but nonetheless I hope this is a helpful tool as you continue to get to know prospects strengths and weaknesses before the draft. In the coming weeks I'll be tweaking the descriptions more depending on the type of feedback I get.

Well, without further ado, the updated Big Board out to my 10th tier:
(As a reminder, the rule is that I would be able to go down one tier for need, this makes tiers more flexible and blended)

Tier 1:
1. John Wall - Elite athlete who takes advantage of fast breaks and drives seams well. Great defensive potential and comes up with big plays on that end though sometimes has mental lapses. Can create his own shot with ease, but will need to work on refining his jumper to become a complete offensive player. Prone for handling errors and tends to force things at times, but can also do some spectacular things with the ball. Is a good mix of pure and scoring point guard tendencies.

Wes Johnson Writeup

Wesley Johnson - Jr. SF, Syracuse

Per36min numbers against Quality Opponents (22 games):
16.8pts, 8.6rebs, 1.7asts, 1.0stls, 1.8blks, 2.6 TOs, 2.3 PFs
49.3 FG%, 39.7 3pt% (31/78), 77.5 FT%, .41 FTA/FGA

A guy who wasn’t in the minds of many, if not all of the scouts who were trying to peg first round prospect to start out the year; Wesley Johnson has turned himself from an unknown to a guy in the conversation to be a top-5 pick in this draft. Unfortunately, his season did not end as he’d hope, as the Orangemen were bounced in the Sweet-16 by Butler. In that game, Johnson appeared to play within the offense, instead of going out and attempting to take over. That was the norm for Wes this season, and is likely one of the few reasons he isn’t being talked about in the same breath as Turner.

May 18th, 2010 - Mock Draft

The 2010 NBA Draft Lottery selection finished a little more than two hours ago. Some fans (Washington and Philly, I'm looking at you) were elated. Others? Heart-broken.

However, what's done is done. The past is in the past. We can only look forward. As such, here's my first post-lottery NBA Mock Draft.

1. Washington - John Wall (PG):
The Arenas era is over; the John Wall era has now begun. It will be a tough year for the Blue Jesus, but with Washington having significant cap room; maybe he can lure someone there.

2. Philadelphia - Evan Turner (SG/SF):
While this should be a lock, you never know. The Sixers could decide to rebuild their frontcourt and not duplicate talent on the wing. However, I think they take Turner and figure out what to do with Iggy and their frontcourt later.

3. New Jersey - Derrick Favors (PF/C):
Lopez isn’t really a brutish player down low, but he’s a skilled offensive player who can step out and hit a jumper. Favors is a brutish player and he has the athleticism Lopez lacks. This is a spectacular fit and likely the second best player for the Nets so they can’t be too disappointed.

NBA Lottery History

So I wrote up this article for a Timberwolves forum two years back about how bad the Timberwolves luck has been in the lottery. I had used the DraftExpress Lottery History page to formulate all the odds for the #1 and #2 picks (the #2 pick odds had to be estimated for 1990-1993), and then went on to describe how unlucky the Timberwolves were.

Well today, I decided to do more than that. I have gone through and used that DX page to get the odds on every team for each season from 1990 to 2009 (check the starred rows on the sheets marked #1 and #2 for the %s), and then went through to describe how lucky or unlucky some of the teams have been. The results are after the jump.

Paul George Writeup

Paul George - So. SG/SF, Fresno State

Per36min numbers against Quality Opponents (10 games):
17.8 pts, 7.1 rebs, 3.3 asts, 2.1 stls, 0.6 blks, 4.3 TOs, 2.9 PFs
35.5 FG%, 27.3 3pt% (15/55), 90.0 FT%, .43 FTA/FGA

After two years of playing at Fresno State, Paul George is a relative enigma to the casual fan. Playing in the WAC did not offer him many opportunities to go up against quality NCAA teams, as the best WAC teams of the past two seasons (Utah State and Nevada) did not exactly offer the type of NBA-caliber talent to go up against that teams in the major conferences could. However, the diligent fan could find games being streamed online, and in those games they could see that his talent stood out on the court.