NBA Draft Addicts

Casper's Final 2011 NBA Mock Draft

2011-06-21T19:02:00.007-05:00

Final 2011 Mock Draft with odds that the pick is dealt and brief summaries.

Many thanks to the following people for various rumors:
Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress)
Chad Ford (@chadfordinsider)
Scott Schroeder (@ScottSchroeder)

Don't forget to check out my Final Big Board

Enjoy!

1. Cleveland (from LAC) - Kyrie Irving (PG), Duke:
Odds pick is dealt: Zero
The Cavs say “Thank you” to the Clippers for gifting them a franchise PG. Off-the-court drama could steal some of his spotlight on draft night.

2. Minnesota - Derrick Williams (PF/SF), Arizona:
Odds pick is dealt: 50%
The Wolves are stuck with a tough choice to make after they take Williams, either keep him and figure out how to make the rotation work with a forward-heavy roster, or deal him for a SG or C. There are so many rumors floating about, that I can’t do anything but label this 50:50.

3. Utah (from NJN) - Brandon Knight (PG/SG), Kentucky:
Odds pick is dealt: Minimal
Do the Jazz go guard here or at #12? That’s the million dollar question. It appears that they have fallen in love with Knight, but they are open to selecting Kanter or Vesely as well.

4. Cleveland - Enes Kanter (C/PF), Turkey:
Odds pick is dealt: 40%
After going Kyrie with their first pick, the Cavs look at going with a C with their second pick. With the selection of Kanter they will have a good PnR partner for Kyrie - and he’ll have the luxury of being able to develop while playing behind Varejao... something which may be needed given his situation last year. They could also move this pick to a team wanting to bid for Kanter, and then move back and take Valanciunas - something to keep an eye on.

5. Toronto - Kemba Walker (PG), Connecticut:
Odds pick is dealt: Minimal
Reports coming out of Toronto are muddled, and there are seemingly 5-6 prospects tied to them at this spot. The one thing I believe is that if Knight is here, he’s the pick - problem is he likely won’t be on the board. Therefore they take Walker who gives them a tough-nosed PG who can produce on both ends of the floor and is a leader in every sense of the word. Dwane Casey should love him.

6. Washington - Jan Vesely (SF/PF), KK Partizan Belgrade:
Odds pick is dealt: 40%
All reports point to the Wizards absolutely loving Vesely. If he can refine his shot from deep, watch out - Wall just found himself an uber-athletic Forward to run the floor with him. If they move the pick it’s going to be to land Kanter.

7. Sacramento - Kawhi Leonard (SF), San Diego State:
Odds pick is dealt: 25%
The Kings want an impact player at this spot, and while they could give Fredette a look because of his offensive fit next to Evans, I think they go with Leonard. Kawhi is able to be slotted in at SF and they will be able to cover up his offensive flaws while hopefully reaping the benefits of his defense and hustle. It’s possible that they move this pick to a team wanting Valanciunas.

8. Detroit - Jonas Valanciunas (C), Lietuvos Rytas:
Odds pick is dealt: 50%
The Jonas slide stops at #8. Will he stay with the Pistons? He could... but Monroe and Jonas are a questionable pairing and they may want some immediate help given the rumors that JV will have to stay at least one season in Europe before coming over. Whatever the case may be, this could be considered great value.

9. Charlotte - Marcus Morris (PF/SF), Kansas:
Odds pick is dealt: Minimal
Charlotte reportedly wants to come out of this draft with an NBA ready player who can help spread the floor. Enter Marcus Morris who can score efficiently from everywhere on the court and can possibly play both Forward spots... very safe choice.

10. Milwaukee - Alec Burks (SG), Colorado:
Odds pick is dealt: 40%
In dire need of improved efficiency out of the backcourt after ranking dead last in offensive efficiency in 2010-11, Milwaukee looks to find a SG who can fill it up. With Jennings loving to chuck up 3’s, they need a guy like Burks alongside him to take it to the rim. If they can move down and add more picks, it’s still possible they can get their guy.

11. Golden State - Chris Singleton (SF/PF), Florida State:
Odds pick is dealt: 25%
Reports coming out of Golden State point to West loving Thompson, but they also have their coach and GM preaching defense. I think they have to go defense here, preferably on the wing. Singleton is able to guard SG, SF, or PF and has also shown the ability to get out and run or knock down 3s - thus making him a good fit for the Warriors.

12. Utah - Marshon Brooks (SG), Providence:
Odds pick is dealt: 60%
The Jazz are left staring Jimmer in the face and are basically forced to pass on a guy hometown fans love. They could move up or down, but if they stay at 12, they could tab Marshon as a NBA-ready scorer with great length.

13. Phoenix - Tristan Thompson (PF), Texas:
Odds pick is dealt: 25%
Reports are that the Suns pick will come from a workout that featured Shumpert, the Morris twins, Singleton, Thompson, and Jimmer. I think Thompson gets the nod as what could turn out to be an upgrade to their PF spot right away despite being raw. Look for them to make a move to acquire a PG (Flynn?) in a deal that might involve this pick.

14. Houston - Bismack Biyombo (C/PF), Baloncesto Fuenlabrada:
Odds pick is dealt: 40%
Houston is still in need of a C, despite trading for Thabeet last season. In Biyombo, they acquire a guy with immense upside on the defensive end, but is as raw as can be offensively. That works for new coach Kevin McHale who wants defense and already has a guy in Scola who can get him buckets in the paint. If they can find a partner in the mid-lotto to trade with, they’ll do it.

15. Indiana - Jimmer Fredette (PG/SG), BYU:
Odds pick is dealt: Minimal
Coming off a nice season that saw them back in the playoffs for the first time in five years, Indiana takes Fredette who, despite having Collison as a starter, rounds out what could be a nice backcourt rotation by an outside shooter who can get incredibly hot.

16. Philadelphia - Klay Thompson (SG/SF), Washington State:
Odds pick is dealt: 25%
Very little is coming out of Philly about the draft, some of it may have to do with them having trouble getting prospects to work out for them, but there’s also the Iguodala rumors. I think if they move Iggy, they should take a wing that can spread the floor and work off the ball - enter Klay Thompson, who has been impressing in workouts.

17. New York - Iman Shumpert (SG), Georgia Tech:
Odds pick is dealt: Minimal
The Knicks need defense first and foremost. In Iman, they get a versatile defender with great tools while also being able to handle the ball a little. Word is that Knicks want him, and odds are there won’t be teams ahead of them who are going to spoil their party. Rumor has it they may want to move up and nab Biyombo - but what do they have to offer? I think they're stuck.

18. Washington (from ATL) - Donatas Motiejunas (PF/C), Benetton Treviso:
Odds pick is dealt: 50%
The Wizards nab Motiejunas who has great upside and can score in a variety of ways. He could be an eventual replacement for Blatche, and at this point represents solid value. As this isn’t an excellent fit, the Wizards could move the pick - especially if they move up to get Kanter.

19. Charlotte (from NOH) - Markieff Morris (PF), Kansas:
Odds pick is dealt: Minimal
The Bobcats nab the second Morris twin, hoping that their chemistry carries over. This isn’t just a sentimental pick, however - Markieff should be a good energy big off the bench that provides defense and rebounding, while also fitting the “safe” mantra that Charlotte is advocating.

20. Minnesota (from MEM) - Jordan Hamilton (SF/SG), Texas:
Odds pick is dealt: Extremely high
The Timberwolves really don’t have room to bring in two rookies as well as Rubio. Therefore, this pick is not representing what I think the Wolves will pick, but who reports consider BPA -Jordan Hamilton.

21. Portland - Nikola Vucevic (C), USC:
Odds pick is dealt: 40%
Portland lacks healthy size. Although Vucevic overlaps with LMA’s skillset, he should be able to play right away and reportedly has been doing well in workouts. Rumors are that Portland wants a vet, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see this moved in a package to acquire one.

22. Denver - Kenneth Faried (PF), Morehead State:
Odds pick is dealt: 25%
Faried fits the up-tempo style of play Denver likes to play and gives the Nuggets a strong rebounder and defender for a team that could possibly lose two of their bigs to free agency - not to mention they have a lot of scorers on the roster so his biggest weakness is covered up.

23. Houston (from ORL) - Tobias Harris (SF/PF), Tennessee:
Odds pick is dealt: 75%
Houston is another team that doesn’t really have room to bring in more rookies, however I could see them keeping the pick if someone like Harris fell. While he’s not similar to Battier as some claim, he is a very smart player who could see rotation minutes right away despite currently being 18.

24. Oklahoma City - Davis Bertans (SF), Union Olimpija Ljubljana:
Odds pick is dealt: 25%
The Thunder really have no rotational needs that can be satisfied with this pick, so they take Bertans who can be stashed overseas for another year or two before coming over.

25. Boston - Jeremy Tyler (C/PF), Tokyo Apache:
Odds pick is dealt: 40%
I have no idea what Boston will do here, because they only have a year or two left of their aging superstars, and then it’s just Rondo and maybe Green. Because of that, I’ll do something nonsensical and stick them with Tyler who is arguably the biggest unknown of the draft, but has great physical tools.

26. Dallas - Justin Harper (PF/SF), Richmond:
Odds pick is dealt: 25%
The Mavs really lose offensive firepower when Dirk goes to the bench - to the point where it’s going to be a problem. Yes, they are in “win now” mode, but I could see Harper playing a role on this team next year... possibly an important one off the bench.

27. New Jersey (from LAL) - Tyler Honeycutt (SF/SG), UCLA:
Odds pick is dealt: 75%
It’s being reported that the Nets want to move up from this spot, and it trying to use #35 in order to do so. However, if they do not move up, I think Honeycutt makes sense as a versatile wing that is a bit of a project.

28. Chicago (from MIA) - Charles Jenkins (PG/SG), Hofstra:
Odds pick is dealt: 60%
If they can’t move this pick, Chicago could go with Jenkins - a comboguard who is NBA ready and can create for himself and others.

29. San Antonio - Kyle Singler (SF/PF), Duke:
Odds pick is dealt: Minimal
The Spurs aren’t giving up hope that their window has closed. As such, they take a guy who can help them immediately as long as he improves his shot selection.

30. Chicago - Bojan Bogdanovic (SG/SF), Cibona VIP Zagreb:
Odds pick is dealt: 40%
Again, another pick they will try to move... however this one will be harder. If they can’t move it, I see them taking a guy they can stash overseas and hope it pays dividends when they finally come over. In this case, it’s one of the best scorers in Europe: Bojan Bogdanovic.

31. Miami (from MIN) - Reggie Jackson (PG/SG), Boston College
32. Cleveland - Jimmy Butler (SF), Marquette
33. Detroit (from TOR) - Darius Morris (PG/SG), Michigan
34. Washington - Malcolm Lee (SG/PG), UCLA
35. New Jersey - Nikola Mirotic (PF), Real Madrid
36. Sacramento - Josh Selby (SG/PG), Kansas
37. LA Clippers (from DET) - JaJuan Johnson (PF), Purdue
38. Houston (from LAC) - Travis Leslie (SG), Georgia
39. Charlotte - Nolan Smith (PG/SG), Duke
40. Milwaukee - Norris Cole (PG), Cleveland State
41. LA Lakers (from GSW) - Cory Joseph (PG), Texas
42. Indiana - Chandler Parsons (SF), Florida
43. Chicago (from UTA) - Jon Leuer (C), Wisconsin
44. Golden State (from PHX) - Jordan Williams (C), Maryland
45. New Orleans (from PHI) - E’Twaun Moore (SG), Purdue
46. LA Lakers (from NYK) - Scotty Hopson (SG/SF), Tennessee
47. LA Clippers (from HOU) - Trey Thompkins (PF), Georgia
48. Atlanta - Shelvin Mack (SG/PG), Butler
49. Memphis - Keith Benson (PF/C), Oakland
50. Philadelphia (from NOH) - Greg Smith (PF/C), Fresno State
51. Portland - Demetri McCamey (PG), Illinois
52. Detroit (from DEN) - Jereme Richmond (SF), Illinois
53. Orlando - David Lighty (SG/SF), Ohio State
54. Cleveland (from OKC) - Xavi Rabaseda (SG), Baloncesto Fuenlabrada
55. Boston - Ben Hansbrough (PG/SG), Notre Dame
56. LA Lakers - Isaiah Thomas (PG/SG), Washington
57. Dallas - Josh Harrellson (C), Kentucky
58. LA Lakers (from MIA) - Robin Benzig (SF/PF), Ratiopharm Ulm
59. San Antonio - Giorgi Shermadini (C), Union Olimpija Ljubljana
60. Sacramento (from CHI) - Andrew Goudelock (PG), Charleston

Casper's Final 2011 NBA Draft Big Board

2011-06-19T09:16:00.003-05:00

Final rankings of players, with Tiers and likely ranges (guys who are considered to have the 2nd round be the highest they will be drafted labeled 31-Undrafted) - players tabbed as 1st rounders have the teams who appear to have the most interest in them.

Tier 1:
1. Kyrie Irving - Fr. PG, Duke
Range: 1-2 --- Most likely: Cavaliers

Tier 2:
2. Derrick Williams - So. PF/SF, Arizona
Range: 1-2 --- Most likely: Timberwolves

Tier 3:
3. Jonas Valanciunas - 1992 C, Lietuvos Rytas
Range: 4-11 --- Most likely: Cavaliers, Pistons

4. Enes Kanter - 1992 PF/C, Kentucky
Range: 3-8 --- Most likely: Cavaliers, Wizards

5. Kemba Walker - Jr. PG, Connecticut
Range: 3-8 --- Most likely: Raptors, Kings

6. Jan Vesely - 1990 SF/PF, KK Partizan Belgrade
Range: 3-9 --- Most likely: Jazz, Wizards

7. Alec Burks - So. SG, Colorado
Range: 9-17 --- Most likely: Bucks, Knicks

Tier 4:
8. Brandon Knight - Fr. PG/SG, Kentucky
Range: 3-7 --- Most likely: Jazz, Raptors

9. Donatas Motiejunas - 1990 PF/C, Benetton Treviso
Range: 10-22 --- Most likely: Rockets, Sixers

10. Bismack Biyombo - 1992 PF/C, Baloncesto Fuenlabrada
Range: 5-17 --- Most likely: Pistons, Warriors, Rockets

11. Tristan Thompson - Fr. PF, Texas
Range: 6-16 --- Most likely: Pistons, Bobcats, Suns

Tier 5:
12. Chris Singleton - Jr. SF/PF, Florida State
Range: 7-16 --- Most likely: Bobcats, Warriors, Jazz

13. Marcus Morris - Jr. PF/SF, Kansas
Range: 8-15 --- Most likely: Bobcats, Bucks, Suns

14. Kawhi Leonard - So. SF, San Diego State
Range: 5-12 --- Most likely: Wizards, Kings

15. Tobias Harris, Fr. SF/PF, Tennessee
Range: 9-27 --- Most likely: Suns, Bobcats

16. Markieff Morris - Jr. PF, Kansas
Range: 9-22 --- Most likely: Suns, Sixers, Bobcats

17. Marshon Brooks - Sr. SG, Providence
Range: 10-20 --- Most likely: Bucks, Jazz, Knicks

18. Reggie Jackson - Jr. SG/PG, Boston College
Range: 18-31 --- Most likely: Celtics, Heat

19. Jimmer Fredette - Sr. PG/SG, Brigham Young
Range: 7-17 --- Most likely: Kings, Suns, Pacers

20. Kenneth Faried - Sr. PF/C, Morehead State
Range: 13-25 --- Most likely: Pacers, Wizards, Nuggets

Tier 6:
21. Justin Harper - Sr. PF/SF, Richmond
Range: 19-35 --- Most likely: Mavericks, Spurs, Kings

22. E’Twaun Moore - Sr. SG, Purdue
Range: 24-Undrafted

23. Nikola Mirotic - 1990 PF, Real Madrid
Range: 21-38

24. JaJuan Johnson - Sr. PF, Purdue
Range: 20-45

25. Jordan Hamilton - So. SF/SG, Texas
Range: 9-23 --- Most likely: Suns, Sixers, Bobcats

26. Tyler Honeycutt - So. SF/SG, UCLA
Range: 23-40 --- Most likely: Rockets, Celtics

27. Darius Morris - So. PG/SG, Michigan
Range: 21-41

28. Nikola Vucevic - Jr. C, USC
Range: 14-25 --- Most likely: Rockets, Sixers, Blazers

29. Jimmy Butler - Sr. SF, Marquette
Range: 23-37

30. Klay Thompson - Jr. SG/SF, Washington State
Range: 9-23 --- Most likely: Bucks, Suns, Rockets

Tier 7:
31. Josh Selby - Fr. SG/PG, Kansas
Range: 27-46

32. Jeremy Tyler - 1991 C/PF, Tokyo Apache
Range: 17-39 --- Most likely: Portland, Boston

33. Travis Leslie - Jr. SG, Georgia
Range: 25-46

34. Davis Bertans - 1992 SF, Union Olimpija Ljubljana
Range: 23-35

35. Bojan Bogdanovic - 1989 SG/SF, Cibona VIP Zagreb
Range: 31-Undrafted

36. Charles Jenkins - Sr. PG/SG, Hofstra
Range: 21-41

37. Kyle Singler - Sr. SF/PF, Duke
Range: 24-46

38. Isaiah Thomas, Jr. PG/SG, Washington
Range: 28-Undrafted

39. Demetri McCamey - Sr. PG, Illinois
Range: 31-Undrafted

40. Cory Joseph - Fr. PG, Texas
Range: 21-Undrafted

41. Norris Cole - Sr. PG, Cleveland State
Range: 21-51

42. Nolan Smith - Sr. PG/SG, Duke
Range: 31-51

43. Jon Leuer - Sr. PF/C, Wisconsin
Range: 25-57

44. Iman Shumpert - Jr. SG, Georgia Tech
Range: 13-34 --- Most likely: Suns, Knicks, Nuggets

45. DeAndre Liggins - Jr. SG/SF, Kentucky
Range: 31-Undrafted

Consensus Big Board Update (April 29th, 2011)

2011-04-29T17:15:00.005-05:00

Consensus Big Board from DX, nba-draft.com, ESPN, briansbigboard, and yours truly - respectively

1. Kyrie Irving - Fr. PG: (1,1,1,1,1) Profile

2. Derrick Williams - So. PF/SF: (2,2,2,2,2) Profile

3. Enes Kanter - 1992 PF/C: (7,3,3,5,3) Profile

4. Kemba Walker - Jr. PG: (4,5,5,4,8) Profile

5. Jonas Valanciunas - 1992 C: (3,4,4,13,4) Profile

6. Jan Vesely - 1990 SF/PF: (8,7,7,3,6) Profile

7. Brandon Knight - Fr. PG/SG: (5,6,6,6,11) Profile

8. Terrence Jones - Fr. SF/PF: (11,11,9,8,5) Profile

9. Bismack Biyombo - 1992 PF/C: (6,8,8,15,12) Profile

10. Alec Burks - So. SG: (10,10,11,12,7) Profile

11. Tristan Thompson - Fr. PF: (15,9,10,7,10) Profile

12. Kawhi Leonard - Jr. SF/PF: (12,12,12,17,17) Profile

13. Donatas Motiejunas - 1990 PF/C: (9,16,15,22,9) Profile

14. Marcus Morris - Jr. PF/SF: (13,17,13,16,14) Profile

15. Jordan Hamilton - So. SG/SF: (16,14,14,10,23) Profile

16. Jimmer Fredette - Sr. PG/SG: (17,15,19,9,19) Profile

17. Kenneth Faried - Sr. PF/C: (21,13,17,11,20) Profile

18. Markieff Morris - Jr. PF: (14,20,21,26,13) Profile

19. Tobias Harris - Fr. PF/SF: (22,23,16,18,18) Profile

20. Nikola Mirotic - 1991 PF: (18,19,18,24,NR) Profile

21. Chris Singleton - Jr. SF/PF: (20,21,23,23,15) Profile

22. Klay Thompson - Jr. SG: (19,25,22,14,34) Profile

23. Tyler Honeycutt - So. SG/SF: (25,26,24,29,27) Profile

24. Reggie Jackson - Jr. PG/SG: (30,18,20,51,16) Profile

25. Nolan Smith - Sr. PG/SG: (24,22,30,27,33) Profile

Post Early Entrant Deadline Big Board

2011-04-28T12:47:00.021-05:00

2011 Big Board: Rules - (1) Can go down one tier for need, makes tiers more flexible and blended, (2) Skills are judged based on the position the player is projected to play.

Tier 1:
1. Kyrie Irving - Fr. PG, Duke
Smooth player whose athleticism and physical tools are overlooked due to his high skill level. Has an uncanny ability to get to the rim due to elite ball handling, including an awesome utilization of changing speeds to catch the defender off balance. Very efficient jump shooter that can create space for himself and knock down shots at high efficiency both from mid-range and beyond the 3pt line. Kyrie also possesses remarkable court vision and playmaking abilities for a PG prospect, which makes him a deadly offensive player. Defensively, he rarely takes a possession off and comes up with positive plays with regularity - however he was rarely tested at the college level. Overall, Kyrie is an excellent mix of offense and defense while also possessing a NBA size. The only downside is if his toe becomes an issue.
NBA Role: Two-way franchise PG
Elite skills/traits: Handling, shot selection, penetration, overall BBIQ
Proficient skills/traits: Jump shot, shot creation, finishing, drawing fouls, passing, court vision, overall defense, quickness, athleticism, intensity
Mediocre skills/traits: Rebounding, height, length
Substandard skills/traits:
--------------------
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Tier 3:
2. Derrick Williams - So. PF/SF, Arizona
Efficient player both in the post and spotting up from distance. Had mixed results against competition with NBA-caliber big men - Texas and Connecticut posed trouble, whereas Kansas and Duke did not. He is among the best at drawing fouls and getting to the line where he knocks them down with some regularity. Has a smooth spot-up jumper, but is not comfortable creating a jump shot at this point because he lacks ball-handling ability on the perimeter. Average rebounder, but could easily improve if he works on fundamentals. Defensively, Derrick does not always give effort and when he does he’s not always effective. Clutch performer who both wants the ball and wants to guard the ball on key possessions. At his peak could be one of the more dangerous offensive players in the league and a regular 20ppg scorer.
NBA Role: All-star caliber stretch 4
Elite skills/traits: Hands, shot selection, finishing, drawing fouls, athleticism, intensity
Proficient skills/traits: Jump shot, post-up game, shot creation, length, strength, offensive BBIQ
Mediocre skills/traits: Penetration, passing, court vision, perimeter defense, off-ball defense, rebounding, height
Substandard skills/traits: Handling, post defense, defensive BBIQ

--------------------
Tier 4:
3. Enes Kanter - 1992 PF/C, Kentucky
Hasn’t played competitively for nearly a year. Very limited experience against good competition, however when faced with a challenge he outperformed his peers. Post moves are advanced for someone his age, able to back defenders down and use an up and under, hook, or drop step to get his points. Great feel around the hoop along with a dependable midrange jumper and nice handling/passing ability make him a highly skilled offensive player. NBA body with immense strength, but not an explosive jumper. Defense is not his strong suit as he does not alter shots as well as one would hope - however it’s not for lack of effort, possibly lack of experience in being an effective defender. Shows outstanding rebounding fundamentals and attacks the ball when it comes off the rim. Hard to project without more evidence, but Enes appears to have the makings of a difference maker at the 5.
NBA Role: Offensive-minded force at the 5.
Elite skills/traits: Hands, touch around rim, shot selection, offensive BBIQ
Proficient skills/traits: Face-up game, post-up game, handling, shot creation, drawing fouls, passing, rebounding, strength
Mediocre skills/traits: Overall defense, athleticism, height, length, defensive BBIQ, intensity
Substandard skills/traits:

4. Jonas Valanciunas - 1992 C, Lietuvos Rytas
Raw big man who shows an excellent motor and touch around the rim. Above average athlete for the C spot with extremely long arms will help him become an effective defender once he learns to utilize those talents effectively. Not afraid of bodying up players in the post or guard players at the top of the key, but plays smaller than he is because too frequently he gets low as if he’s a guard on the perimeter. Offensively, he runs the pick and roll among the best and has a great feel around the hoop to finish those opportunities - also showing improving post skills including an improving drop step and nice looking hook. His work on the boards is superb and he routinely out works older, more skilled opponents. A project to be sure, but if he realizes his talents he could be a gem.
NBA Role: Starting C with positive impact on both ends
Elite skills/traits: Hands, touch around rim, length
Proficient skills/traits: Shot selection, off-ball defense, rebounding, athleticism, height, intensity, offensive BBIQ
Mediocre skills/traits: Post-up game, handling, shot creation, drawing fouls, post defense, perimeter defense, defensive BBIQ
Substandard skills/traits: Face-up game, passing, strength

5. Terrence Jones - Fr. SF/PF, Kentucky
Terrence is someone who, if rated from 1-10 on every trait, could be argued to have 6s or 7s across the board. Has good handling and passing abilities for a guy his size. Can knock down shots from beyond the 3pt line and has an improving post game, while also being able to draw fouls against slower PFs in face-up situations. Works well without the ball, coming off screens for open jumpers or cutting to the hoop. Terrence is adept at rebounding the ball on both ends of the floor and also is a plus defender, using his great length to his advantage in both aspects. While he might not have star potential, he should be a great glue guy.
NBA Role: Jack of all trades F
Elite skills/traits:
Proficient skills/traits: Handling, penetration, finishing, drawing fouls, passing, court vision, overall defense, rebounding, athleticism, length, strength, overall BBIQ
Mediocre skills/traits: Jump shot, post-up game, hands, shot creation, shot selection, height, intensity
Substandard skills/traits:

6. Jan Vesely - 1990 SF/PF, KK Partizan Belgrade
At his best when attacking the rim both off the dribble and cutting to the rim. Jump shot is not where it needs to be and he appears to lack confidence in it, often choosing to drive even when given an open shot. Extremely high energy level. Great athlete with long arms allows him to be a pest defensively. Because he is rail thin doesn’t rebound or defend in the post as well as one would hope - however despite his frame he’s not wary of competing against bigger players. Jan looks to be someone who would thrive playing next to a sweet-shooting star player.
NBA Role: Starting slasher/energy player.
Elite skills/traits: Finishing, athleticism, height, intensity
Proficient skills/traits: Hands, shot selection, penetration, drawing fouls, overall defense, length, defensive BBIQ
Mediocre skills/traits: Handling, shot creation, passing, court vision, rebounding, offensive BBIQ
Substandard skills/traits: Jump shot, post-up game, strength

7. Alec Burks - So. SG, Colorado
One of the best players at getting to the rim and finishing through contact. Exceptional ball handling skills and athleticism allow him to create scoring opportunities for himself despite being the focus of the defense, while also having mediocre court vision and passing abilities for a SG prospect to make defenses pay if they commit 2-3 players to him. To become a complete offensive player, however, Alec really needs to work on his sub-standard jumper both in off the dribble and catch and shoot opportunities. Defensively, he has tools to be a good defender, but is not effective outside the occasional deflection or steal. Overall, he projects right now to be a good secondary scorer who does his damage by attacking the basket.
NBA Role: Starting slasher/scorer
Elite skills/traits: Penetration, finishing
Proficient skills/traits: Handling, shot creation, drawing fouls, athleticism, length, offensive BBIQ
Mediocre skills/traits: Shot selection, passing, court vision, off-ball defense, rebounding, height, intensity, defensive BBIQ
Substandard skills/traits: Jump shot, perimeter defense
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Tier 5:
8. Kemba Walker - Jr. PG, Connecticut
Elite skills/traits: Quickness, intensity
Proficient skills/traits: Handling, shot creation, penetration, finishing, drawing fouls, overall defense, rebounding, athleticism, defensive BBIQ
Mediocre skills/traits: Jump shot, passing, court vision, offensive BBIQ
Substandard skills/traits: Shot selection, height, length

9. Donatas Motiejunas - 1990 PF/C, Benetton Treviso
Elite skills/traits: Face-up game
Proficient skills/traits: Post-up game, hands, touch around rim, handling, shot creation, shot selection, drawing fouls, athleticism, height, length, offensive BBIQ
Mediocre skills/traits: Passing, intensity
Substandard skills/traits: Overall defense, rebounding, strength

10. Tristan Thompson - Fr. PF, Texas
Elite skills/traits: Touch around rim, drawing fouls
Proficient skills/traits: Post defense, off-ball defense, hands, athleticism, length, strength, intensity
Mediocre skills/traits: Post-up game, shot selection, perimeter defense, rebounding, height, overall BBIQ
Substandard skills/traits: Face-up game, handling, shot creation, passing

11. Brandon Knight - Fr. PG/SG, Kentucky
Elite skills/traits: Shot creation, intensity
Proficient skills/traits: Jump shot, handling, penetration, quickness, athleticism, height, length
Mediocre skills/traits: Finishing, drawing fouls, court vision, overall defense, overall BBIQ
Substandard skills/traits: Shot selection, passing, rebounding

12. Bismack Biyombo - 1992 PF/C, Baloncesto Fuenlabrada
Elite skills/traits: Off-ball defense, athleticism, length, strength, intensity
Proficient skills/traits: Drawing fouls, touch around rim, post defense, rebounding, defensive BBIQ
Mediocre skills/traits: Height, shot selection
Substandard skills/traits: Face-up game, post-up game, hands, handling, shot creation, passing, perimeter defense, offensive BBIQ
--------------------
Tier 6:
13. Markieff Morris - Jr. PF, Kansas
Elite skills/traits: Touch around rim, shot selection
Proficient skills/traits: Hands, overall defense, rebounding, athleticism, height, length, strength, overall BBIQ
Mediocre skills/traits: Face-up game, post-up game, passing, intensity
Substandard skills/traits: Handling, shot creation, drawing fouls

14. Marcus Morris - Jr. PF/SF, Kansas
Elite skills/traits:
Proficient skills/traits: Face-up game, post-up game, hands, touch around rim, shot creation, shot selection, drawing fouls, athleticism, height, length, offensive BBIQ
Mediocre skills/traits: Handling, passing, overall defense, rebounding, strength, intensity, defensive BBIQ
Substandard skills/traits:

15. Chris Singleton - Jr. SF/PF, Florida State
Elite skills/traits: Perimeter defense, off-ball defense, defensive BBIQ
Proficient skills/traits: Post defense, athleticism, height, length, strength, intensity
Mediocre skills/traits: Jump shot, hands, handling, penetration, finishing, passing, court vision
Substandard skills/traits: Post-up game, shot creation, shot selection, drawing fouls, rebounding, offensive BBIQ

16. Reggie Jackson - Jr. PG/SG, Boston College
Elite skills/traits: Length
Proficient skills/traits: Shot selection, finishing, perimeter defense, off-ball defense, intensity
Mediocre skills/traits: Jump shot, handling, shot creation, penetration, passing, rebounding, athleticism, height, overall BBIQ
Substandard skills/traits: Drawing fouls, quickness, court vision

17. Kawhi Leonard - So. SF/PF, San Diego State
Elite skills/traits: Rebounding
Proficient skills/traits: Penetration, finishing, passing, overall defense, athleticism, length, strength, intensity, defensive BBIQ
Mediocre skills/traits: Hands, handling, shot creation, court vision, height, offensive BBIQ
Substandard skills/traits: Jump shot, post-up game, shot selection, drawing fouls

18. Tobias Harris - Fr. PF/SF, Tennessee
Elite skills/traits: Intensity
Proficient skills/traits: Hands, handling, penetration, finishing, strength, overall BBIQ
Mediocre skills/traits: Post-up game, shot creation, shot selection, drawing fouls, passing, court vision, overall defense, rebounding, athleticism, height, length
Substandard skills/traits: Jump shot

19. Jimmer Fredette - Sr. PG/SG, Brigham Young
Elite skills/traits: Jump shot
Proficient skills/traits: Handling, shot creation, intensity, offensive BBIQ
Mediocre skills/traits: Shot selection, penetration, drawing fouls, passing, court vision, height
Substandard skills/traits: Finishing, overall defense, rebounding, quickness, athleticism, length, defensive BBIQ

20. Kenneth Faried - Sr. PF/C, Morehead State
Elite skills/traits: Rebounding, intensity
Proficient skills/traits: Hands, overall defense, athleticism, length, defensive BBIQ
Mediocre skills/traits: Post-up game, shot selection, drawing fouls, strength
Substandard skills/traits: Face-up game, handling, shot creation, passing, height, offensive BBIQ

21. Justin Harper - Sr. PF/SF, Richmond
Elite skills/traits: Jump shot
Proficient skills/traits: Handling, shot creation, shot selection, height, offensive BBIQ
Mediocre skills/traits: Post-up game, hands, penetration, finishing, passing, court vision, perimeter defense, athleticism, length, intensity, defensive BBIQ
Substandard skills/traits: Drawing fouls, post defense, off-ball defense, rebounding, strength

Consensus Big Board Update (April 6th, 2011)

2011-04-06T16:39:00.003-05:00

Time for the post-NCAA Tournament big board consensus. Lots of movement from the last one (to view all consensus boards from this season, follow this link). Derrick Williams moved up from #5 to #2, while Brandon Knight went from #16 to #10. Meanwhile, guys like Perry Jones III (#3 to #5), Terrence Jones (#7 to #11), and Jordan Hamilton (#13 to #18) all fell. There will likely be a lot more movement in the upcoming weeks even though the college season is over, so stay tuned.

Without further ado, here are the latest rankings (DX, nbadraft.net, nba-draft.com, ESPN, briansbigboard, and yours truly - respectively).

1. Kyrie Irving - Fr. PG: (1,3,1,1,1,1) Player Profile

2. Derrick Williams - So. PF: (2,1,2,2,3,4) Player Profile

3. Harrison Barnes - Fr. SF: (5,2,3,3,4,3) Player Profile

4. Jared Sullinger - Fr. PF: (4,5,4,4,2,2) Player Profile

5. Perry Jones III - Fr. SF/PF: (6,9,5,5,8,5) Player Profile

6. Enes Kanter - 1992 PF/C: (9,4,7,6,12,9) Player Profile

7. Jan Vesely - 1990 SF/PF: (10,10,8,8,5,8) Player Profile

8. Jonas Valanciunas - 1992 PF/C: (3,17,6,7,20,6) Player Profile

9. Kemba Walker - Jr. PG: (7,18,9,9,6,11) Player Profile

10. Brandon Knight - Fr. PG/SG: (8,8,12,10,7,17) Player Profile

11. Terrence Jones - Fr. SF/PF: (12,12,13,11,9,7) Player Profile

12. Alec Burks - So. SG: (15,7,18,15,16,10) Player Profile

13. Tristan Thompson - Fr. PF: (22,16,10,12,11,12) Player Profile

14. Kawhi Leonard - Jr. SF: (14,13,15,13,22,15) Player Profile

15. Donatas Motiejunas - 1990 PF/C: (11,6,17,23,26,14) Player Profile

16. Jimmer Fredette - Sr. PG/SG: (18,11,19,21,10,19) Player Profile

17. John Henson - So. SF/PF: (13,29,11,14,17,16) Player Profile

18. Jordan Hamilton - So. SG/SF: (19,22,16,20,13,21) Player Profile

19. Marcus Morris - Jr. PF: (17,14,21,25,18,28) Player Profile

20. Kenneth Faried - Sr. PF/C: (35,25,14,17,14,22) Player Profile

21. Markieff Morris - Jr. PF/C: (23,15,24,28,31,26) Player Profile

22. Nikola Mirotic - 1991 PF: (16,56,22,19,28,NR) Player Profile

23. Tobias Harris - Fr. SF/PF: (36,26,32,29,23,24) Player Profile

24. Patric Young - Fr. PF: (21,NR,29,27,29,39) Player Profile

25. Trey Thompkins - Jr. PF: (39,19,31,35,25,29) Player Profile

Consensus Big Board Update (March 14, 2011)

2011-03-14T09:41:00.007-05:00

It's been a while since I had an update, and for those who look at this site I apologize because I've been quite busy with other things. However, since the tournament is about to begin, I thought I'd get another update of the Consensus Big Board in so everyone can see how rankings change because of tournament performances.

(DX, nbadraft.net, nba-draft.com, ESPN, briansbigboard, and yours truly - respectively)

1. Kyrie Irving - Fr. PG: (1,2,3,1,1,1) Player Profile

2. Jared Sullinger - Fr. PF: (3,4,2,3,2,2) Player Profile

3. Perry Jones - Fr. SF/PF: (4,1,1,2,7,4) Player Profile

4. Derrick Williams - So. PF: (5,3,7,5,3,7) Player Profile

5. Harrison Barnes - Fr. SF: (12,6,6,4,5,3) Player Profile

6. Enes Kanter - 1992 PF/C: (6,5,4,6,9,8) Player Profile

7. Terrence Jones - Fr. SF/PF: (8,7,5,9,11,6) Player Profile

8. Jan Vesely - 1990 SF/PF: (9,14,15,8,4,11) Player Profile

9. Jonas Valanciunas - 1992 PF/C: (2,18,8,7,25,5) Player Profile

10. Kemba Walker - Jr. PG: (7,26,17,10,6,10) Player Profile

11. Kawhi Leonard - Jr. SF: (13,11,12,12,20,15) Player Profile

12. Donatas Motiejunas - 1990 PF/C: (11,8,11,19,24,NR) Player Profile

13. Jordan Hamilton - So. SG/SF: (20,15,9,18,12,14) Player Profile

14. Alec Burks - So. SG: (14,9,24,13,14,16) Player Profile

15. Jimmer Fredette - Sr. PG/SG: (17,10,14,17,8,25) Player Profile

16. Brandon Knight - Fr. PG/SG: (16,17,22,23,13,9) Player Profile

17. Tristan Thompson - Fr. PF: (22,20,18,15,10,18) Player Profile

18. John Henson - So. SF/PF: (10,34,10,11,22,17) Player Profile

19. Marcus Morris - Jr. PF: (19,13,16,22,15,20) Player Profile

20. Kenneth Faried - Sr. PF/C: (33,21,13,16,16,19) Player Profile

21. Chris Singleton - Jr. SF/PF: (18,23,27,32,26,12) Player Profile

22. Trey Thompkins - Jr. PF: (37,16,21,29,28,24) Player Profile

23. Lucas Noguiera - 1992 C: (29,19,31,28,NR,NR) Player Profile

24. Nolan Smith - Sr. PG/SG: (23,35,26,30,23,31) Player Profile

25. Markieff Morris - Jr. PF/C: (24,22,25,21,48,34) Player Profile

Derrick Williams Writeup

2011-01-24T19:36:00.005-06:00

Derrick Williams - So. SF/PF, Arizona

PER36min numbers against Quality Opponents (6 games):

24 pts, 11.1 rebs, 0.7 asts, 1.3 stls, 1.1 blks, 3.5 PFs, 3.1 TOs

53.4 FG%, 50.0 3pt% (5/10), 72.1 FT%, .93 FTA/FGA

Derrick Williams has a variety of opinions regarding how he’ll translate to the NBA level. Some think he has the tools to be a #1 option, some claim he’ll have to make the transition to SF to be effective, and some believe he’ll be like David West. What is not up for debate, however, is that he is an elite offensive weapon at the college level.

At 6’8, 241lbs Williams is a little undersized for a PF, however he is powerfully built and is relatively long. When projecting him to the NBA level, he possesses great athleticism for the PF position, while also being an above average athlete for the SF spot. I think it’s feasible that he could play either spot in the pros, though at this time he is far better suited for the PF spot due to his lack of shot-creation skills on the perimeter. He will, however, be a great source of energy and highlights because he can get up and finish.

Offensively, Williams is a great college talent. He gets flashes in the paint, seals, and gets position with the best of them which allows for him to get easy points against the smaller, less physical competition that he currently faces in college. His footwork around the hoop also can make his competition look silly, and is an area of strength which should translate well to the next level. He utilizes jab steps, spins, drop steps, and counter moves to get a good look at the hoop. Then, while looking to draw contact at every opportunity possible, his phenomenal touch around the rim allows him to convert at high percentages. This type of efficiency in the post allows him to draw an enormous amount of fouls and is the reason he boasts nearly a 1:1 FTA:FGA ratio, an incredible rate for someone as skilled as he is.

What balances his excellent post game is that he is also great spot up shooter who can hit 3’s at high efficiency. This will make him an extremely dangerous player alongside a competent PG, as when he screens he can both roll to the hoop to finish with authority, or pop out and nail the open jumper. He will, however, need to continue to advance his ball-handling skills as he cannot create his own looks on the perimeter, merely using his handle to drive to the rim when there is an opening in the defense. Another area which needs work is his recognition of open teammates flashing in the lane or open on the perimeter. To his credit, he does not force the issue if the defense is loaded on his side of the floor, but he also does not make the easy pass when it’s there - then again, when you are as efficient as Derrick is (he sports a very good 1.09 PPP) he is likely the best option on his college team unless triple teamed.

Onto what I consider one of his most prominent weaknesses: although Derrick possesses a nice combination of length and athleticism, he is not a quality defender. Frequently Derrick is seen “doing the wave” defensively, where he will stand straight up and put his arms in the air to deter his opponents shot attempt. While it’s better than committing a foul or doing absolutely nothing, this also makes him a relatively ineffective post defender who can be seen getting beat far too easily for a player who possesses the physical strengths he does. There are countless times I have seen guards attack the rim against Arizona and Williams will not contest but instead stand and watch - likely one of the reasons that the Wildcats are one of the worst defensive teams among the college powerhouses (they have a 91.2 adjusted D ranking according to kenpom.com, which places them 38th out of the top-50 teams). Although he is not a major threat around the rim, he does have relatively quick hands for a big and can be seen creating steals and then using his exceptional athleticism to run the floor and finish.

Lastly, his rebounding fundamentals could use quite a bit of work if he’s going to spend time at the PF spot. Although his numbers have picked up lately, Williams has serious flaws in his fundamentals where he uses his arms far more than his body to get position. Because he uses his arms, the guy he is attempting to box out can easily get around him and snatch the ball, while Derrick is left trying to use his athleticism to out jump his opponent. He should be a much more dominant rebounder than he currently is given his athleticism and the fact that he is usually playing PF and sometimes C for the Wildcats, but instead he is an average rebounder compared to the 15 PFs I have stats logged for.

Overall, there is plenty to like with Williams. While he is an undersized PF by NBA standards, he has the skills and athleticism to make up for the height advantage his opponents will have, while also having the ability to spend time at the SF spot (possibly full-time if he improves his handle). At his current pace, I believe he will be selected in the 7-15 range when draft time rolls around. The main things keeping him out of the top-5 discussion for me are his defensive shortcomings and his relatively average rebounding skills which I believe will keep him from being a force at the NBA level and instead will be looking at an upside of Antawn Jamison if he fulfills his potential.

Early 2011 Prospect Lists:

2010-07-05T11:24:00.007-05:00

The 2011 NBA Draft is 353 days away (thanks NBADraft.net), but that doesn't mean initial lists can't be made. Now, I'm not making a Big Board until the season gets much closer and I can find more stuff on the incoming freshman, but this will serve as sort of a "Watch List" for the upcoming season. I have the guys ranked in their potential NBA positions, and next to their names have schools and all class.

Below the fold will be the five lists...

PG:
Kyrie Irving - Duke, Fr.
Brandon Knight - Kentucky, Fr.
Kemba Walker - Connecticut, Jr.
Cory Joseph - Texas, Fr.
Demetri McCamey - Illinois, Sr.
Kalin Lucas - Michigan State, Sr.
Josh Selby - Kansas, Fr.
Durand Scott - Miami, So.
Nolan Smith - Duke, Sr.
Jimmer Fredette - BYU, Sr.
Corey Fisher - Villanova, Sr.

SG:
Reggie Bullock - UNC, Fr.
William Buford - Ohio State, Jr.
Malcolm Lee - UCLA, Jr.
Iman Shumpert - Georgia Tech, Jr.
Alec Burks - Colorado, So.
Tyshawn Taylor - Kansas, Jr.
Rodney Williams - Minnesota, So.
Scotty Hopson - Tennessee, Jr.
Austin Freeman - Georgetown, Sr.
Klay Thompson - Washington State, Jr.
John Jenkins - Vanderbilt, So.
Michael Snaer - Florida State, So.
Jacob Pullen - Kansas State, Sr.
LaceDarius Dunn - Baylor, Sr.
Durrell Summers - Michigan State, Sr.

SF:
Harrison Barnes - UNC, Fr.
C.J. Leslie - NC State, Fr.
Terrence Jones - Kentucky, Fr.
Elias Harris - Gonzaga, So.
Chris Singleton - Florida State, Jr.
Kyle Singler - Duke, Sr.
Jordan Hamilton - Texas, So.
Jeff Taylor - Vanderbilt, Jr.
Robin Benzing - 1989
Tony Mitchell - Missouri, Fr.
Gary Flowers - Southern Mississippi, Sr.
Kris Joseph - Syracuse, Jr.
Wesley Witherspoon - Memphis, Jr.
Travis Leslie - Georgia, Jr.
Kawhi Leonard - SDSU, So.
Chris Wright - Dayton, Sr.

PF:
Perry Jones - Baylor, Fr.
Jan Vesely - 1990
Donatas Motiejunas - 1990
John Henson - UNC, So.
Jared Sullinger - Ohio State, Fr.
JaMychal Green - Alabama, Jr.
Trey Thompkins - Georgia, Jr.
Derrick Williams - Arizona, So.
Renardo Sidney - Mississippi State, So.
Pablo Aguilar - 1989
Kevin Jones - West Virginia, Jr.
JaJuan Johnson - Purdue, Sr.
Kenneth Faried - Morehead State, Sr.
Marcus Morris - Kansas, Jr.
Willie Reed - St. Louis, Jr.
Alex Oriakhi - Connecticut, So.
Wally Judge - Kansas State, So.
Andrew Nicholson - St. Bonaventure, Jr.
Lavoy Allen - Temple, Sr.
Yancy Gates - Cincinnati, Jr.
Arnett Moultrie - Mississippi State, Jr.
Markieff Morris - Kansas, Jr.

C:
Jonas Valanciunas - 1992
Enes Kanter - Kentucky, Fr.
Fab Melo - Syracuse, Fr.
Mason Plumlee - Duke, So.
Jeremy Tyler - 1991
Aaric Murray - LaSalle, So.
Ralph Sampson III - Minnesota, Jr.
Keith Benson - Oakland, Sr.
Greg Smith - Fresno State, So.
Xavier Gibson - Florida State, Jr.
Tony Woods - Wake Forest, Jr.

Post 2010 Draft Analysis:

2010-07-03T11:16:00.003-05:00

Obviously talent is a big factor in a player's success, but finding the right situation is also highly influential in how a player's career starts out. Below the fold will be who I think the winners and losers are in terms of the situation they landed in.

Winners:
Wesley Johnson(4) - The Timberwolves desperately needed an upgrade on the wing and Johnson should be able to get heavy minutes in his rookie season even though he has Brewer, Webster, and Ellington all worthy of minutes in the rotation.

DeMarcus Cousins(5) - The Kings do not need him to start next year with the one-year rental of Dalembert, which should allow Cousins to begin the season coming off the bench and then overtake the starting position mid-season. He and Tyreke should become one of the game's best young duos.

Greg Monroe(7) - Their frontcourt was without a player who could play minutes at Center, so Monroe could have been drafted into a starting role.

Al-Farouq Aminu(8) - He will have little pressure to produce offensively, which was the weakpoint in his game this last season. They will be counting on him, however, to give them quality defense as well as versatility to play both SF and PF, so the minutes should be there. While I'm not an Aminu fan, he couldn't have asked for a better situation.

Cole Aldrich(11) - It doesn't get much better for Cole. All OKC needs is for him to be a passable offensive option in the post, while giving them rebounding and defense. He can do that. Going to a team who would ask more of him would've spread out his focus and made him less effective.

Ed Davis(13) - Bosh is on the way out, and his competition in the frontcourt isn't exactly fierce. He will get his share of minutes, and Amir Johnson should allow Davis to come off the bench and hone his skills offensively against the other team's bench in his first season.

Kevin Seraphin(17) - Drafted higher than most expected, playing next to a stud PG, and landing in a frontcourt with an opening for his skillset... yeah, I'd say this is a pretty good situation for Seraphin.

Eric Bledsoe(18) - Like Aminu, there will be little pressure on Bledsoe to produce right away. Learning behind a vet like Davis will ease the transition back to the PG position after spending much of his time at SG last year in Kentucky.

Avery Bradley(19) - With Rondo there his playmaking wouldn't be on display and he could develop his PG skills while giving the Celtics outside shooting and lockdown D.

James Anderson(20) - Excellent location for Anderson to develop as they have many minutes available at the SG/SF spots and he can smooth over his defensive and handling issues.

Craig Brackins(21), Quincy Pondexter(26) - Both of these guys will be asked to give the Hornets' rotation a boost. Especially Brackins giving their frontcourt an offensive option in the post. Pondexter may be asked to mainly provide a defensive boost until Peja is off the books.

Dexter Pittman(32), Jarvis Varnado(41), Da'Sean Butler(42) - Miami needs players who don't cost very much, and all three of these seniors should be able to provide them with decent minutes right away. Pittman could even "start" games although he may only play for 15 minutes a night.

Losers:
Ekpe Udoh(6) - Financially, he's a winner... but in terms of the playing time he could see, he's a loser. The Warriors already have Randolph, Wright, Biedrins, and Turiaf in the frontcourt - and outside of his playmaking ability I don't see anything which makes me think he should earn big minutes until at least two of those guys are shipped out.

Xavier Henry(12) - Unless Mayo is moved to PG, I don't see how he'll ever get a starting spot in Memphis with Gay just agreeing to his deal. He could very well get 25-30mpg, but without room to grow this doesn't seem like the best situation for him.

Patrick Patterson(14) - He was one of the few guys who could immediately come in and give a team 30mpg if needed... however in Houston there are quite a few players who could get minutes at the PF spot (especially if Scola is brought back) and this could put the squeeze on Patterson.

Larry Sanders(15), Jerome Jordan(44), Tiny Gallon(47) - Gooden and Ilyasova are both there and each deserve minutes, so you have to wonder where these three fit in unless there is an injury.

Dominique Jones(25) - How on earth is he going to get minutes in Dallas? Maybe he'll be used with Dampier's contract in a S&T, but yeah... not good for him.

Daniel Orton(29) - He could easily be moved yet this summer, but as of this point I don't see where the minutes would come from with Howard, Gortat, Lewis, Anderson, and Bass all ahead of him in the rotation.

2010 NBA Draft - Mock Draft (Final)

2010-06-24T10:21:00.005-05:00

It's time for my final mock draft - a little less than 8 hours before the real thing. Sifting through rumors and figuring out which ones to believe in is a time-consuming process... but I love doing it so it's a welcomed "chore".

Before I hit the actual mock, I want to discuss two trades which I think have a good chance at going down and thus I included them while making this mock draft.

The first is a trade between New Jersey and Sacramento. This deal would have the #3 pick (Cousins) going to Sacramento for the #5 pick (Johnson) and one of their PFs. Sacramento would ensure they get their franchise C, while New Jersey gets the SF they want, but pick up value.

The second is the rumored Minnesota/Detroit deal. Here, Minnesota would send out Al Jefferson and #16 for Tayshaun Prince and #7. More could be added, but I think those are the only two picks and "major" players involved.

Alright, time for the mock. I shortened down the commentary and added in a feature of my odds sheet with the % chance to reach a certain level. After each label, will be what I believe the odds are that they will be at least that good.

Lottery:
1. Washington - John Wall (PG):
Franchise player: 20%, Fringe All-Star: 90%
The Arenas era is over; the John Wall era has now begun. This pick is a lock now per reports.

2. Philadelphia - Evan Turner (SG/SF):
Franchise player: 5%, Fringe All-Star: 80%
It seems like Philadelphia will draft Turner and then try to flip Iguodala as they duplicate each other’s strengths and weaknesses a little too much.

3. Sacramento (from NJN) - DeMarcus Cousins (C):
Franchise player: 10%, Fringe All-Star: 60%
I think New Jersey ends up trading down to take Wesley Johnson, and that Sacramento moves up to #3 using one of their PFs as the prime bait. Sacramento gets their franchise C.

4. Minnesota - Derrick Favors (PF/C):
Franchise player: 15%, Fringe All-Star: 50%
Minnesota thinks about taking Johnson, but reason wins out and they go Favors. This opens up the trade which will send Al out for Detroit’s pick.

5. New Jersey (From SAC) - Wesley Johnson (SF):
Fringe All-Star: 30%, Solid Starter: 85%
Sacramento trades up for Cousins, while New Jersey moves down for the correct value on Wesley Johnson. New Jersey gets their long-term starting SF and then plans on getting a PF in free agency.

6. Golden State - Greg Monroe (PF/C):
Fringe All-Star: 11%, Solid Starter: 45%
Seeing as they already have athletes in the frontcourt, Monroe’s athletic and defensive deficiencies could be covered up and his skills could be maximized.

7. Minnesota (from DET) - Paul George (SG/SF):
Fringe All-Star: 15%, Solid Starter: 35%
Detroit trades this pick to Minnesota for Al Jefferson. Minnesota attempts to use this pick to get Wesley Johnson, but instead settles for Paul George who impressed in workouts.

8. LA Clippers - Al-Farouq Aminu (SF/PF):
Fringe All-Star: 11%, Solid Starter: 31%
The Clippers have a need at SF, and Aminu gets the spot here since he has the ability to play PF next to Griffin when they go small and also gives them great athleticism and defense.

9. Utah (from NY) - Cole Aldrich (C):
Fringe All-Star: 1%, Solid Starter: 35%
Cole doesn’t offer much upside, but he’s ready right away and it beats relying on Fesenko or Koufos to develop, while also being a decent fit with Millsap.

10. Indiana - Ed Davis (PF):
Fringe All-Star: 25%, Solid Starter: 60%
Davis gives them a very athletic PF with upside to put next to Hibbert, and also reuinites him with Hansbrough. Opens up Murphy to be moved for a veteran PG.

11. New Orleans - Gordon Hayward (SF):
Fringe All-Star: 0%, Fringe Starter: 40%
Hayward makes sense for the Hornets, as they are looking for a scorer at the SF spot. It’s rumored he has a promise in the top-12.

12. Memphis - Patrick Patterson (PF):
Fringe All-Star: 0%, Fringe Starter: 65%
Patterson has the ability to come in next season and replace the troubled Randolph at PF, giving them steady production on both ends of the court.

13. Toronto - Eric Bledsoe (PG):
Fringe All-Star: 1%, Fringe Starter: 35%
I think they go PG here, but the question is - which one: Bledsoe or Bradley? I think they go for the one who has more developed PG skills but slightly less talent defensively and take Bledsoe. This allows them to move Calderon or Jack.

14. Houston - Xavier Henry (SG/SF):
Fringe All-Star: 20%, Fringe Starter: 85%
I don’t know what Houston is going to target, but Henry is BPA at this spot and I can’t see him falling much further than this, and even though he doesn’t quite make sense in Houston they could easily trade this pick.

Rest of 1st Round:
15. Milwaukee (from CHI) - Ekpe Udoh (PF/C):
Solid Starter: 30%, Fringe Starter: 75%
With the Bucks just acquiring Maggette, I think they look in the frontcourt and add Udoh who bolsters their surprisingly good defense and could be a very nice fit next to Bogut.

16. Detroit (from MIN via CHA) - Hassan Whiteside (PF/C):
Solid Starter: 30%, Fringe Starter: 50%
Minnesota ships this pick to Detroit in the Al Jefferson trade and Detroit selects Hassan Whiteside who they hope can give them some much needed defense in the frontcourt if Wallace leaves, although they may have to wait a little.

17. Chicago (from MIL) - James Anderson (SG):
Solid Starter: 26%, Fringe Starter: 66%
Anderson fits well next to Rose as an off-the-ball scorer from deep and also brings decent playmaking and defense to the table. Great fit.

18. Oklahoma City (from MIA) - Daniel Orton (PF/C):
Fringe Starter: 21%
Oklahoma could very well package all three of their picks to move up into the lottery, but I can’t speculate on who they’d target. I do know they like Orton, so he’s the pick here.

19. Boston - Avery Bradley (PG/SG):
Fringe Starter: 45%
Boston is aging. Bradley can come in and give them athleticism, defense, and jumpshooting at the SG spot and eventually learn to play some point. He and Rondo in the backcourt would be menacing.

20. San Antonio - Luke Babbitt (SF/PF):
Fringe Starter: 30%
Jefferson was a letdown at the SF spot, and so I think the Spurs use this pick to upgrade their talent. Babbitt falling gives them an NBA-ready offensive talent.

21. Oklahoma City - Damion James (SF/PF):
Fringe Starter: 50%
If the Thunder keep this pick, they go with value and reunite James with Durant. While he kind of overlaps with Green, it gives them leverage in contract negotiations.

22. Portland - Kevin Seraphin (PF/C):
Fringe Starter: 31%
Seraphin is an upside pick, but also should be able to contribute a crude, but punishing game on offense his first year; while also giving them plus production defensively and on the boards while Oden and Przybilla are out.

23. Minnesota (from UTA) - Quincy Pondexter (SF):
Fringe Starter: 20%
Minnesota could include this pick in the Detroit deal, or use it to attempt to move up from the 7th pick, but as it stands I think they go with Pondexter given his impressive workout and he’ll give them more defense and flexibility on the wing.

24. Atlanta - Larry Sanders (PF/C):
Fringe Starter: 30%
The Hawks need size and defense. Sanders brings great defensive ability as well as an excellent frame, but doesn’t have the bulk they’d be looking for.

25. Memphis (from DEN) - Eliot Williams (SG):
Fringe Starter: 15%
I don’t think Memphis keeps both of their late picks, however I’ll pick like they do. Williams grew up in Memphis and played one year there in college, and his style works well with Mayo.

26. Oklahoma City (from PHX) - Tibor Pleiss (C):
Fringe Starter: 20%
If they keep the pick, Pleiss goes here. The Thunder are rumored to like him, and this is a stash pick.

27. New Jersey (from DAL) - Solomon Alabi (C):
Fringe Starter: 20%
Working off the first trade, I think NJ now goes for a big that could work next to Lopez in limited minutes, and also give them defense.

28. Memphis (from LAL) - Greivis Vasquez (PG/SG):
Fringe Starter: 11%
This pick is rumored to be available for cash. However, if they keep it he apparently impressed them in workouts, and they assure that he’s in a Grizzlies uniform with this pick. Should be a nice backup PG.

29. Orlando - Darington Hobson (SG/SF):
Fringe Starter: 35%
Hobson is rumored to have a 1st round promise. While he doesn’t have the star potential on the wing which they seemed to need in the playoffs, he can fill a void off the bench and then eventually earn a starting spot and allow Nelson to work off him at times.

30. Washington (from CLE) - Devin Ebanks (SF/PF):
Fringe Starter: 65%
Nice value here. Ebanks gives them excellent defense on the wing and someone who likes to run. If his offensive skillset ever matures, he’ll give them an extremely versatile player.

2nd Round:
31. New Jersey - Terrico White (SG)
32. Miami (from OKC via MIN) - Craig Brackins (PF)
33. Sacramento - Willie Warren (SG)
34. Portland (from GS) - Dominique Jones (SG)
35. Washington - Jordan Crawford (SG)
36. Detroit - Jerome Jordan (C)
37. Milwaukee (from PHI) - Gani Lawal (PF)
38. New York - Lance Stephenson (SG/SF)
39. New York (from LAC) - Trevor Booker (PF)
40. Indiana - Armon Johnson (PG/SG)
41. Miami (from NO) - Stanley Robinson (SF)
42. Miami (from TOR) - Artsiom Parakhouski (C)
43. LA Lakers (from MEM) - Jerome Randle (PG)
44. Milwaukee (from GS via CHI) - Paulao Prestes (C)
45. Minnesota (from HOU) - Nemanja Bjelica (SG/SF)
46. Phoenix (from CHA) - Brian Zoubek (C)
47. Milwaukee - Mikhail Torrance (PG/SG)
48. Miami - Dexter Pittman (C)
49. San Antonio - Jarvis Varnado (PF)
50. Dallas (from OKC) - Derrick Caracter (PF/C)
51. Oklahoma City (from POR) - Latavious Williams (SF/PF)
52. Boston - Omar Samhan (C)
53. Atlanta - Miroslav Raduljica (C)
54. LA Clippers (from DEN) - Sherron Collins (PG)
55. Utah - Da’Sean Butler (SF)
56. Minnesota (from PHO) - Sylven Landesberg (SG)
57. Indiana (from DAL) - Jon Scheyer (PG/SG)
58. LA Lakers - Tiny Gallon (PF/C)
59. Orlando - Charles Garcia (PF)
60. Phoenix (from CLE) - Lazar Hayward (SF)

2010 NBA Draft - Big Board (Final)

2010-06-23T20:12:00.003-05:00

2010 Big Board: Rule - can go down one tier for need, makes tiers more flexible and blended

1. John Wall - Elite athlete who takes advantage of fast breaks and drives seams well. Great defensive potential and comes up with big plays on that end though sometimes has mental lapses. Can create his own shot with ease, but will need to work on refining his jumper to become a complete offensive player. Prone for handling errors and tends to force things at times, but can also do some spectacular things with the ball. Is a good mix of pure and scoring point guard tendencies.
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2. Derrick Favors - Physical specimen with rare combination of strength and athleticism. Could play either frontcourt spot offensively, but needs to work on his jumpshot if he’s to maximize his effectiveness at the ‘4’ and his post skills if he’s going to maximize his effectiveness at the ‘5’. Tends to lose his dribble when executing post moves, but has great hands and should be a monster in terms of efficiency. At his peak, he should be one of the best defenders and rebounders, but he might lack the desire or passion on the court to be a dominant offensive player.

3. Evan Turner - A complete prospect. He is a good playmaker, handler, and floor general from the wing spot and will create mismatches because of his array of talents. Needs to keep working on his long-range jumpers, but currently has one of the best mid-range games in the draft, while also being comfortable driving to the rim - however in this area he is turnover-prone as he is too loose with his handle. He should be a plus defender because of his effort, even though he’s not the best of athletes. Might be facing an uphill battle to be a superstar, as he lacks the tools normally seen in those players, thus his potential is limited.

4. DeMarcus Cousins - He’s a dominant player in the post, able to bull over most people guarding him, but also blessed with surprisingly quick feet. Uses his body to gobble up rebounds on both ends, and has the touch to finish shots around the basket even though he’s not an explosive athlete to throw them down with ease. Has problems with maturity on the court, but not off of it. This leads him to pick up silly fouls and sometimes be an indifferent defender. Sometimes his fire is a good thing, however, as it’s what causes him to be dominant at times.
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5. Wesley Johnson - Elite athlete on the wing with a very effective jumper with NBA 3pt range and quick release. Doesn’t look uncomfortable with the ball, but not relied upon to handle the ball and doesn’t use his dribble to attack the basket effectively despite his physical advantages. Because of this, it leads one to believe he’ll never be seen as a star in the NBA. Good rebounder that takes advantage of positioning and his leaping ability to be an asset in that area. Defensively, he has the tools, but tends to gamble - though playing within the zone makes it hard to see how he’ll translate.
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6. Ed Davis - Before his season ended with a broken wrist, he showed improvement on both ends of the floor. Able to create for himself in the post as well as establish position against bigger players. Showed good touch around the hoop, but needs to add a reliable jumper to be a dangerous offensive player. Defensively, he possesses great timing and is a plus in both man and weakside situations. Can guard face-up ‘4’s effectively on the perimeter. Tends to be a little passive on the court, which brings up questions if he can ever be “the man”.

7. Xavier Henry - Overshadowed by veterans, Henry still showed his ability to play at both ends of the court and the potential to be a deadeye shooter. Has a smooth jumper with effortless release, but had a midseason slump where it was extremely streaky. Deceptively good athlete, who isn’t explosive around the rim but is able to create for himself when the situation calls for it. Not the best handler or playmaker, if he’s going to be anything more than a scorer he needs to improve in those areas. Has the length, athleticism, and strength to defend either wing position.
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8. Greg Monroe - Spectacular playmaker in the frontcourt who plays more like a guard than a big. Because of that, he also sports a decent jumpshot and is comfortable handling the ball on the perimeter. The downside, however, is that he’s relatively soft when playing in the post and can be easily rooted from position. Defensively, his lack of great athleticism and length, combined with the absence of the mentality to own the paint, causes him to be a neutral-at-best player on that end.

9. Paul George - Great athlete with the size and length to create mismatch problems on either end. Streaky jumpshooter who was relied upon too much in college, may become much more efficient as a 2nd or 3rd option as he shows pure form on his shot and great efficiency in spot-up situations. Ability to make plays and handle the ball is a plus. Defensively, he tends to gamble more than he should.

10. Al-Farouq Aminu - An intriguing combination of great length, agility, and instincts makes him an outstanding defensive prospect that can guard either Forward spot. Has a nose for the ball when it comes to rebounding. Offensively, he’s raw, having an unreliable jumper and making odd decisions when trying to make plays for himself or teammates. He is effective, however, when set up with spot-up jumpers or off offensive rebound opportunities.

11. Ekpe Udoh - Great athleticism and the biggest shoulders known to mankind are likely huge influences in helping make him a great defensive player both in man and weakside situations. Makes good decisions with the ball when making plays, however dribbles it way too high when driving to the rim. Decent jumper and post-game, but should not be relied upon as one of the top options - upside is that of a role player.

12. Hassan Whiteside - Being an elite weakside defender but raw man defender makes him an intriguing prospect. Great athlete with the ability to effectively guard players on the perimeter. Has a surprisingly good jumper and a decent post-game, but has tunnel vision once he gets the ball. He needs to work on his game in the post (offensively, defensively in man situations, and rebounding) to realize his great potential. A huge boom or bust prospect.

13. Cole Aldrich - Ready-made player who is a great rebounder and post defender. Has decent touch and an adequate jumper. However, he is not a good athlete and doesn’t assert himself offensively, which limits his upside.
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14. Patrick Patterson - Very polished player who is good in just about every aspect you judge a PF on. Has good strength, athleticism, size, and motor which means the mismatches against him will be few and far between. Worked on his jumper so now he can spot-up out to the 3pt line with good efficiency. Lost the mentality to go after every board, and also still cannot handle or create for himself outside of the post which means he’s almost certainly a role player.

15. Devin Ebanks - Excellent defender who excels at shutting down great perimeter players despite only having decent athleticism and physical tools. He needs to bulk up to be a good post defender against the bigger ‘3’s and most ‘4’s in the NBA. Possesses a good jumper out to 15-18 feet, but efficiency drops off the map once he gets near the 3pt line even though he has good form. Passing ability is a plus, but should not be relied upon to handle the ball. Lack of athleticism and polished offensive game limit his upside.

16. James Anderson - Good athlete possessing a great jumper with unlimited range as well as the ability to finish at the rim through contact. Does not look comfortable handling the ball, almost always going left when he drives and sometimes unable to create for himself when guarded by a skilled defender. Uses screens well, however, which should help him be an effective 3rd option in the NBA - however he’ll need to continue working on his handle to be anything more. Is an above average defender who tends to stay home instead of gamble.
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17. Avery Bradley - Great athlete and elite defender. Only offensive weapon is his jumper, both off the dribble and spotting up - but he doesn’t effectively take it to the rim nor does he draw contact. Needs to work on his handle and playmaking ability to realize his potential.

18. Damion James - Nice athlete with good size and skills for a role-player SF. Tough-nosed defender who can defend most perimeter players and some post players. Has a decent jumper and can create for himself, but isn’t a guy you want handling the ball often due to his lack of playmaking ability and not being a good dribbler even when comparing him to other SFs.

19. Willie Warren - If he were two inches taller he’d be a great prospect even though he had a down year, however at 6’4 without great length he’s small for a SG and his weaknesses become magnified. Great dribbler and ability to finish around the rim, also possesses a streaky jumpshot which is money if it’s on. However, he is an indifferent defender and even though his team was dysfunctional last year, he wasn’t helping with his selfish mentality.

20. Larry Sanders - Very athletic frontcourt player with excellent length, but lacking the strength required to guard some of the bigger post players. However, he is a great weakside defender and has solid man defensive skills. Needs to crash the boards with more fervor, as he plays a bit soft. Has worked on developing a jumper, but could stand to improve both that and his post skills.

21. Darington Hobson - A versatile wing with great playmaking ability, good handles, and a nice jumper. Struggles with efficiency when guarded with long, athletic players; but at the next level he won’t be the focus of defenses as he was in his one year in the NCAA. He needs to work on his game off the ball, as well as defensive intensity to maximize his potential as a role player.

22. Gordon Hayward - Smooth player with surprising athleticism and a good jumper, however he appeared to be very streaky this year after a consistent freshman season. Plays tougher than he looks, and also is an effective defender when he’s focused. Can rebound the ball and make plays at an above average clip compared to most other SF prospects. Needs to improve his handle and become more consistent on both ends of the court.
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23. Kevin Seraphin - Intruiging player with a great package of size, strength, athleticism, and length in the frontcourt. Could play either spot offensively or defensively. Needs to keep developing his offensive repertoire.

24. Eric Bledsoe - Great athlete who was forced to play out of position for most of his minutes. Showed the ability to guard either backcourt spot and was extremely focused when doing so, having few lapses. Has a good jumper, but far too often takes bad shots and is wild when driving to the rim. His playmaking skills did not appear to be very good compared to most PGs, so he’ll need to work on that or play next to a ball-dominant player who can handle the ball.

25. Terrico White - Great athlete with good length for the SG spot. Possesses solid playmaking skills and can help handle the ball, though he showed far less of this his sophomore year. Can create for himself in the halfcourt and good at driving the seams, however can be a bit reckless in his decisions which leads to him taking a few too many contested jumpers. An indifferent defender, he needs to show more intensity on this end and make use of his tools to realize his full potential and possibly become a very good starter.

26. Luke Babbitt - Very good offensive skills. Able to create for himself despite only having average handles and playing as an average or below average athlete. Has range well beyond the 3pt line, and also is dangerous close to the hoop. Surprisingly good playmaker with good vision for a combo forward. Defensively he gives effort, but frequently looks overmatched when guarding players with NBA athleticism and thus isn’t an effective defender.

27. Artsiom Parakhouski - Skilled player with great size, decent athleticism, and the mentality people look for in a post player. Goes after every rebound and utilizes good positioning and effort to secure it. Not an explosive leaper, but still a good defender at the college level due to his size and positioning, though he struggled outside the paint. Plays below the rim, but shows good touch around the hoop and has a reliable jumper to help space the floor.

28. Quincy Pondexter - Great athlete who relies upon playing bigger and stronger than he is to overpower opponents. The lack of a reliable jumper and good handles could hurt him in the NBA, as his interior game will not be nearly as effective and thus he may be in for a harsh transition. Defensively, he’s very good as he shows effort and intensity so his tools are used to their fullest.
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29. Gani Lawal – Explosive, powerful player who has developed offensive skills in the post. Missing a reliable jumper to make him an extremely dangerous offensive player - FTs need help too. Blessed with great athleticism and length, with good length and motor. Crashes the boards well. Defensively he needs to focus more as he’s prone to picking up silly fouls and allows easy baskets a bit too often.

30. Lance Stephenson - Good playmaker and handler for a SG, also possesses a knack for creating separation and getting up tough shots. Overly confident in his abilities, pressing too hard and frequently taking shots which are too tough instead of pulling back and passing the ball. Defensively, he shows good intensity at times, but most of the time he’s an indifferent defender. If he continues to work on his game, he has high potential, but doesn’t seem to get it.

31. Craig Brackins - Skilled offensive player whose efficiency will increase when he’s not asked to carry the load. Has well developed post moves, a good midrange game, and has the ability to extend his range beyond the 3pt line in time to - when combined with his playmaking ability - become a dangerous offensive role player. Defensively, however, he is likely going to be a negative for his team, as he hasn’t seemed interested on that end.

32. Jerome Jordan - Athletic, long player with skills on both ends. Is inconsistent in his level of play which makes it hard to project where he could go in his career. Needs to work on his jumper if he wants to be seen as a starter.

33. Solomon Alabi - Nice athlete from the C spot who can make a significant impact defensively thanks to his timing and ability to harass opposing big and guards both in the post and when he’s forced out to the perimeter. Plays a little soft, however, and needs to assert himself more on the boards - hands need work as well. Has a nice jump hook and stroke from the line, which bodes well for his ability to become a decent option in the post if he continues to improve.

34. Stanley Robinson - Great athlete who uses this athleticism to be a quality defender as well as an exciting player in transition or when crashing the boards offensively. Has a decent jumper, but needs to continue to improve it to become a good role player. Lacks good handles and strength, thus tends to play outside far more than inside.

35. Elliot Williams - Good athlete who relies on his ability to drive to the rim and finish through contact, but needs to work on his handle to become ambidextrous with the ball. Possesses an improving jumper, but needs to keep working on it to make a smooth transition to the NBA. Solid playmaker, but prone to trying to be too fancy with the ball and thus be a bit turnover prone despite not being ball-dominant. Defensively, he is below average, but this should not be his focus as his role in the NBA will be that of a scorer.

36. Daniel Orton - He’s a body blessed with great physical tools. Right now he’s raw on both ends, showing glimpses of having a decent face-up game and defensive potential to go along with those tools. Knee problems may scare off some teams, as will his tendency to play like a thug and thus pick up lots of fouls. Has a lot of work to do to become a decent NBA player, but the potential is there.

37. Dominique Jones - A bull of a guard who loves driving to the rim and has good touch around the basket despite not being a great athlete. Decent handle and playmaking ability, can also create separation for himself, but his jumper isn’t reliable. Defensively, he puts forth good effort, but isn’t very effective.
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38. Jarvis Varnado - Great weakside defender with outstanding timing. As a man defender, he’s in for a tough transition as he’s too small to guard most post players, and not quite agile enough to guard some face-up ‘4’s. Quality rebounder despite his lack of strength, thanks to his fundamentals. Needs to continue to work on his jumper to make a successful transition to PF.

39. Da’Sean Butler - Streaky jumpshooter who comes up big in the clutch. Knee injury may knock his athleticism down a notch, but at WVU he was an average athlete. Very complete offensive player, able to handle and make plays while also being able to drive to the rim and create separation for himself in the halfcourt. Defensively, he was mostly hidden, and doesn’t seem to possess the ability to do more than put a hand up.

40. Lazar Hayward - Good athlete with legit size for a SF. Possesses a nice jumper with NBA range, but lacks good handles and playmaking to be anything more than a role player offensively. Defensively, shows very good effort and has the potential to be a plus defender.

41. Jordan Crawford - Volume shooter whose efficiency tailed off in bigger games. However, he can create for himself and is able to get off shots in tough situations. Playmaking and handling are there, but not a strength. On the defensive side, he looks indifferent much of the time.

42. Trevor Booker - Surprising athlete who is skilled and can rock the rim. Has worked on a jumper and has range out to 18-20 feet. Nice defensive skills, active down low and very physical. Needs to become more physical on the boards and learn better fundamentals.

43. Mikhail Torrance - SG with some very nice PG skills, however doesn’t have a takeover mentality nor athleticism which will wow anyone, thus is a classic tweener. Defensively he’ll be a liability.

44. Derrick Caracter - Big, strong post player with excellent post skills and touch around the basket. Tough-nosed rebounder and very physical defensively - however is relatively ineffective against skilled opponents and isn’t much of a weakside defender due to below average athleticism.

45. Miroslav Raduljica - Very skilled post player with legit size, range on his jumper, and decent court vision. Lacks defensive ability and toughness, and is also a subpar rebounder.
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46. Tyler Smith - Immaturity destroyed his NBA prospects, but outside of that is a solid prospect with good playmaking, average defensive ability, a decent jumper and solid physical attributes. If he can show that he’s matured, and can improve the range on his jumper out to the NBA 3pt line, he could be a solid player.

47. Greivis Vasquez - Was a star in college. Good size, handles, jumper, and playmaking. His problem lies with his poor athleticism, where it is a hindrance that he cannot get around defensively, and offensively will make his transition to the pros a bumpy one.

48. Tibor Pleiss

49. Armon Johnson - Explosive guard who is at his best attacking so he can create for himself or his teammates. Spot up jumper is suspect, as is the range on it - so if he’s going to make it in the NBA it will need to be improved. Defensively, he has the tools, but seems disinterested at times.

50. Sylven Landesberg - Smooth offensive player that can create for himself and others at the SG spot, however he’s still quite raw and doesn’t always make the best play. Athletically, he is average or below average; which, when combined with his mentality defensively, makes him a minus on that end of the floor.

51. Nemanja Bjelica
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52. Alexey Shved
53. Tiny Gallon
54. Ryan Richards
55. Brian Zoubek
56. Latavious Williams
57. Manny Harris
58. Jerome Randle
59. Dexter Pittman
60. Hamady Ndiaye
61. Marqus Blakely
62. Charles Garcia
63. Paulao Prestes
64. Vladimir Dasic
65. Luke Harangody
66. Matt Bouldin
67. Omar Samhan
68. Jacob Pullen
69. Dwayne Collins
70. Samardo Samuels
71. Andy Rautins
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72. Aubrey Coleman
73. Jerome Dyson
74. Elijah Millsap
75. Sherron Collins
76. Wayne Chism
77. Jon Scheyer
78. Deon Thompson
79. AJ Ogilvy
80. Ben Uzoh
81. Jeremy Lin
82. Scottie Reynolds
83. Jeff Foote

Updated Mock Draft - June 15th, 2010

2010-06-15T12:16:00.002-05:00

Latest Mock Draft after reading through various rumors and articles, as well as watching a lot of workout videos. As such, there's been a lot of shake-up in this mock compared to the last one.

1st Round:
1. Washington - John Wall (PG):
The Arenas era is over; the John Wall era has now begun. This pick is a lock now per reports.

2. Philadelphia - Evan Turner (SG/SF):
This pick could be moved so Philadelphia picks up more value as Turner and Iguodala duplicate each other’s strengths and weaknesses a little too much. I believe they would be almost equally as happy with Favors or Cousins, but right now Turner is the safer bet.

3. New Jersey - Derrick Favors (PF/C):
Lopez isn’t really a brutish player down low, but he’s a very skilled offensive player who can also step out and hit a jumper. Favors is a tough-nosed player and he has the athleticism Lopez lacks. This is a spectacular fit, though the pick is rumored to be “gettable”.

4. Minnesota - DeMarcus Cousins (C):
This represents a BPA pick as DeMarcus has the potential to be dominant. It is also a pick which will drastically change the franchise as Al and Cousins likely cannot coexist, but Cousins is the larger and more talented of the two.

5. Sacramento - Wesley Johnson (SF):
This is a tough pick for the Kings, and don’t be surprised to see them move up or down. They need talent which fits next to Evans, but they would highly prefer it to be a big with defensive ability. However, as the value isn’t there, they instead go for BPA and take Johnson - even though they already have Casspi and Greene.

6. Golden State - Greg Monroe (PF/C):
The Warriors really don’t have a specific need besides being healthy and reorganizing their talent. Seeing as they already have athletes in the frontcourt, Monroe’s athletic and defensive deficiencies could be covered up and his skills could be maximized.

7. Detroit - Ed Davis (PF):
Detroit needs help just about everywhere, and as such they cannot afford passing up the potential Davis has on both ends of the floor. He’ll fill a huge hole in the Pistons rotation next year, possibly starting by year’s end.

8. LA Clippers - Paul George (SF):
The Clippers have a need at SF, but they also could use some playmaking since Gordon lacks in that area. Aminu could get a look here since he has the ability to play PF next to Griffin when they go small, but George offers a diverse skillset and his stock has skyrocketed.

9. Utah (from NY) - Cole Aldrich (C):
Gift wrapping Utah an NBA-ready defensive Center would be like an early Christmas, even if he isn’t the BPA. He doesn’t offer much upside, but it beats relying on Fesenko or Koufos to develop, while also being a decent fit with Millsap.

10. Indiana - Xavier Henry (SG/SF):
If the Pacers trade down or out of this spot as rumored, then Henry is the pick as he’s BPA and the team targeting this pick in a trade would likely be looking to draft him. However, if they keep the pick, this is a tough spot and Aminu, Udoh, or Hayward are all possibilities.

11. New Orleans - Gordon Hayward (SF):
It is rumored that Hayward has a promise somewhere above the 12th pick. This would be a reasonable spot for him if that’s the case, even though Aminu is still on the board and represents the BPA. If he can rid himself of the streakiness which plagued him this past year, this could be a very nice fit.

12. Memphis - Al-Farouq Aminu (SF/PF):
If they allow Gay to walk, then Aminu would look like an excellent fit - and even if they do not, Mayo, Gay, and Aminu could all play on the floor together and create huge mismatch problems with their athleticism and scoring ability.

13. Toronto - Patrick Patterson (PF):
Losing Bosh is certainly going to sting, but Toronto can’t panic. Patterson - while not a quite as good defensively like the BPA Udoh - could immediately come in and be a nice fit next to Bargnani as he has a reliable post game, while also being an extremely safe choice.

14. Houston - Hassan Whiteside (PF/C):
Upside pick that Houston can afford to take, even with the red flags surrounding him. While this pick has a high possibility of being moved, a pick of Whiteside would allow him time to mature and also make him earn his minutes - possibly giving him more motivation to reach his potential.

15. Milwaukee (from CHI) - Luke Babbitt (SF/PF):
Babbitt measured out better than almost everyone expected, and it’s rumored the Bucks like him a lot. The Bucks should give Anderson a heavy look here, but the Bucks will take one of the most skilled offensive players on the board.

16. Minnesota (from CHA) - Ekpe Udoh (PF/C):
The Timberwolves really need help on the wing, and Anderson is staring them in the face. However, Udoh is BPA and he is potentially a perfect fit alongside Cousins and would work very well in an uptempo triangle variation. I think they take him and reshape their frontcourt.

17. Chicago (from MIL) - James Anderson (SG):
Rose is a dominant ball-handler with a budding jumper, and the SG next to him needs to be able to play off the ball and be great working primarily in catch-and-shoot and screen situations. Anderson brings that as well as decent playmaking and defense to the table. Great fit.

18. Miami - Avery Bradley (PG/SG):
Bradley isn’t currently ready to play PG in a traditional role, but the Heat don’t need that if they keep Wade. He can immediately step in and give them excellent defense as well as solid shooting in his limited minutes, while learning to become more of a playmaker.

19. Boston - Willie Warren (SG):
Warren has certainly fallen out of favor with the masses over the past year, but I still think he has the upside to be pretty good in the NBA. Working off more talented players, he could be a deadly sharpshooter with handles. In Boston he could replace some of Allen’s production, and give them another handler when Rondo is off the floor.

20. San Antonio - Damion James (SF):
They need toughness, length, and spot-up shooting at the SF spot since Jefferson clearly didn’t give them that. James brings those as well as quality defense, and seems like a Popovich kind of player.

21. Oklahoma City - Daniel Orton (PF/C):
I personally would dislike this pick if I were an OKC fan; however this is a mock, not my big board. Some team will reach for him early because of his size, athleticism, and thug-like nature on the court; and I think that team will be the Thunder as he is a hometown player who also fills a big need.

22. Portland - Kevin Seraphin (PF/C):
They were decimated by injuries last year, and could have Oden and Przybilla start off the year watching games in suits. Seraphin is an upside pick, but also should be able to contribute a crude, but punishing game on offense his first year; while also giving them plus production defensively and on the boards.

23. Minnesota (from UTA) - Devin Ebanks (SF/PF):
Minnesota likely moves up in the draft using this pick, but if not, I like Ebanks here. As BPA (in my opinion at least) he does not given them an immediate boost offensively at the wing like they need, but he’ll provide lockdown defense, quality rebounding, playmaking, and also possesses a nice mid-range game. They can get the offense in Free Agency.

24. Atlanta - Larry Sanders (PF/C):
The Hawks need size and defense. Sanders brings great defensive ability as well as an excellent frame, but doesn’t have the bulk they’d be looking for. However, seeing that he’s put on about 15lbs of “good” weight in the past two seasons (he only has 4.6% body fat); I think he could eventually bulk up to 240-250 and be a menace for Atlanta.

25. Memphis (from DEN) - Eric Bledsoe (PG/SG):
Conley doesn’t seem to be a guy worth considering part of their core, even though he’s a decent player. As such, they go with Bledsoe who - even if Conley is kept longterm - can play a role as a comboguard off the bench that will give them a great defender and decent shooting.

26. Oklahoma City (from PHX) - Tibor Pleiss (C):
I don’t know if they keep both picks, but I’ll pick as though they will. They already took Orton, but it’s rumored that they also like Pleiss and they could stash him for a year or two. Their roster cannot handle any more non-impact players, so taking an international prospect makes sense.

27. New Jersey (from DAL) - Quincy Pondexter (SF):
The Nets should use this pick to guess at the type of role player a star FA would want to surround him. You can never have enough role players who are very athletic and have the ability to guard three positions, while also able to create for themselves - so Pondexter is the pick here.

28. Memphis (from LAL) - Elliot Williams (SG):
I cannot see Memphis taking three rookies this year, so I would assume they will trade up or out of one of their later picks. However, if they do keep all three, I think they’ll go with Elliot Williams who grew up in Tennessee, played at Memphis, and is a pretty good athlete that can be a scorer/slasher off the bench.

29. Orlando - Darington Hobson (SG/SF):
Hobson is rumored to have a 1st round promise. As someone who is adept at handling the ball, shooting it from deep, and also possesses decent athleticism - it makes sense. While he doesn’t have the star potential on the wing which they seemed to need in the playoffs, he can fill a void off the bench and then eventually earn a starting spot and allow Nelson to work off him at times.

30. Washington (from CLE) - Solomon Alabi (C):
Could he slip all the way to the last pick in the 1st round? It’s possible, especially when a lot of teams don’t necessarily need a C at the end of the 1st in this mock. He gives the Wizards a legit C with good defense and budding skills, as well as a high character guy. I don’t know if he’ll ever be a big-minute player, but this is good value.

2nd Round:
31. New Jersey - Artsiom Parakhouski (C)
32. Oklahoma City (from MIN) - Terrico White (SG)
33. Sacramento - Jerome Jordan (C)
34. Golden State - Dominique Jones (SG)
35. Washington - Gani Lawal (PF)
36. Detroit - Jarvis Varnado (PF)
37. Milwaukee (from PHI) - Trevor Booker (PF)
38. New York - Lance Stephenson (SG/SF)
39. New York (from LAC) - Stanley Robinson (SF)
40. Indiana - Mikhail Torrance (PG/SG)
41. Miami (from NO) - Craig Brackins (PF)
42. Miami (from TOR) - Jordan Crawford (SG)
43. LA Lakers (from MEM) - Greivis Vasquez (PG/SG)
44. Portland (from CHI) - Paulao Prestes (C)
45. Minnesota (from HOU) - Nemanja Bjelica (SG/SF)
46. Phoenix (from CHA) - Brian Zoubek (C)
47. Milwaukee - Armon Johnson (PG/SG)
48. Miami - Lazar Hayward (SF)
49. San Antonio - Ryan Richards (C)
50. Dallas (from OKC) - Derrick Caracter (PF/C)
51. Oklahoma City (from POR) - Latavious Williams (SF/PF)
52. Boston - Da’Sean Butler (SF)
53. Atlanta - Omar Samhan (C)
54. LA Clippers (from DEN) - Jerome Randle (PG)
55. Utah - Alexey Shved (PG/SG)
56. Minnesota (from PHO) - Manny Harris (SG)
57. Indiana (from DAL) - Sylven Landesberg (SG)
58. LA Lakers - Dexter Pittman (C)
59. Orlando - Tiny Gallon (PF/C)
60. Phoenix (from CLE) - Charles Garcia (PF)

Odds Sheet Update - June 10th, 2010

2010-06-10T23:17:00.002-05:00

Odds sheet uploaded here and added to the side-bar.

Just to give a brief rundown, the Odds Sheet is my way of rating players. At the moment, there are seven weighted categories: Franchise Player (Fran), Recurring All-Star (R-AS), Fringe All-Star (F-AS), Solid Starter (SS), Fringe Starter (FS), Decent Bench Player (DBP), and Out of the League (Out). I'm thinking of adding an eighth called End of Rotation Player (or something of the sort) to bridge the gap from being a decent bench player (7th/8th man) and those who never really become more than a 9th/10th man.

Anyway, each player is given a numeric value for each category which is the percent chance I think the prospect will end up playing at that level during his peak years. That value is then multiplied by the weighted value given to each category (10, 4, 2, 1, 1/2, 1/4, and -1/3 respectively according to the list of 7 above). This Rating is then another tool I use to help me mold my Big Board because it's another way of showing how I truly feel about a player instead of just listing their strengths, weaknesses, and then attempting to judge upside and the likelihood they reach 100% of their potential, 75% of their potential, etc.

Hope you enjoy.

Consensus Big Board Rankings 6-07-2010

2010-06-07T17:56:00.005-05:00

I finally got around to updating the latest Consensus Big Board rankings. I had been waiting for nbadraft.net and nba-draft.com to update their rankings; and since they both recently did... well... I could do my thing.

For those who are unaware, I take the Big Board rankings of the four major sites I look at for Big Boards (DX, nbadraft.net, nba-draft.com, and ESPN), then add in my own, and the average rankings make up the Consensus Big Board. This consensus gives everyone a better idea of where players may rank at the current point in time, and the database allows for all of us to see how a prospect's stock has fallen or risen as the days pass. The last update I did was May 2nd, and as you can see here (a link is also under the "Useful Files" tab on the sidebar), a lot of things have changed since then. The brief analysis of these rankings will be discussed below the fold.

There's usually a small group of prospects whose stocks make a significant increase during this time of the year, while many others see minor decreases in their stock as a result. Last year, Jonny Flynn seemed to be the main prospect moving up. This year? It seems like Luke Babbitt is the main benefactor, while Avery Bradley and Paul George also are reaping the benefits.

The reasons? Measurements are normally the first step in a guy having his stock raised. Babbitt impressed with his athletic measurements, and his performance in the shooting drills also helped his cause. Both he and George played in the relatively obscure WAC, so those with relatively little knowledge of them came away moving them up their boards as a result. Bradley, even though he played for a major school, still benefited because he measured out taller and longer than expected, while also performing as expected in the drills.

Individual or group workouts also play a big role in people moving up this time of year. The reports coming out of San Antonio and Chicago were big boosts to George's stock, as he supposedly wowed NBA personnel at both workouts when going against another great prospect, Xavier Henry. Bradley has also done the same against a group in Indiana, while Babbitt did the same in Milwaukee.

Finally, how a player interviews can make lasting impressions on teams and reporters alike. Babbitt and George are both seen as good interviewers. George recently had a piece written about him by DX, and also had a video of his workout and interview posted.

If you have done your homework, these results should not sway your rankings much... but in some cases you may have just not seen enough of a player so these things help you paint a picture of a player - for better or worse as these may not be indicative of how the player plays on the court nor give a good representation of a players athleticism or what a player truly thinks as they have been coached through these processes by their agents.

Stay tuned to see how these rankings continue to evolve up until draft night hits.

June 2nd, 2010 - Mock Draft (full)

2010-06-02T14:21:00.008-05:00

Alright, next up is the first full mock of the year.

Before this update, I had just done the first round, but I have now added the second round as I had time to read up and watch a bit more videos on the international prospects I wasn't too familiar with, while also seeing measurements and all that good stuff. This mock was done based on whatever news and rumors I have been come across about the stock of certain prospects, as well as what I think would make good sense where there hasn't been much news.

Going to save you from reading any more non-draft stuff. Remember to hit up the Big Board if you are curious about how I view a player.

Here it is:

Lottery:
1. Washington - John Wall (PG):
The Arenas era is over; the John Wall era has now begun. This pick is a lock.

2. Philadelphia - Evan Turner (SG/SF):
This pick could be moved so Philadelphia picks up more value as Turner and Iguodala duplicate each other’s strengths and weaknesses a little too much. I believe they would be almost equally as happy with Favors or Cousins, but right now Turner is the safer bet.

3. New Jersey - Derrick Favors (PF/C):
Lopez isn’t really a brutish player down low, but he’s a skilled offensive player who can step out and hit a jumper. Favors is a brutish player and he has the athleticism Lopez lacks. This is a spectacular fit.

4. Minnesota - DeMarcus Cousins (C):
This represents a BPA pick as DeMarcus has the potential to be dominant. It is also a pick which will drastically change the franchise as Al and Cousins likely cannot coexist, but Cousins is the larger and more talented of the two.

5. Sacramento - Wesley Johnson (SF):
This is a tough pick for the Kings, and don’t be surprised to see them move down. They need talent which fits next to Evans, but they would highly prefer it to be a big with defensive ability. However, as the value isn’t there, they instead go for BPA and take Johnson - even though they already have Casspi and Greene.

6. Golden State - Greg Monroe (PF/C):
The Warriors really don’t have a specific need besides being healthy and reorganizing their talent. Seeing as they already have athletes in the frontcourt, Monroe’s athletic and defensive deficiencies could be covered up and his skills could be maximized.

7. Detroit - Ed Davis (PF):
Detroit needs help just about everywhere, and as such they cannot afford passing up the potential Davis has on both ends of the floor. He’ll fill a huge hole in the Pistons rotation next year, possibly starting by year’s end.

8. LA Clippers - Al-Farouq Aminu (SF/PF):
Aminu fills a huge hole at SF for the Clippers, while also having the ability to play PF next to Griffin when they go small. This pick would leave them heavily reliant on the PG position for playmaking, but it could also create matchup nightmares for opponents.

9. Utah (from NY) - Cole Aldrich (C):
Gift wrapping Utah an NBA-ready defensive Center would be like an early Christmas, even if he isn’t the BPA. He doesn’t offer much upside, but it beats relying on Fesenko or Koufos to develop, while also being a decent fit with Millsap.

10. Indiana - Ekpe Udoh (PF/C):
This is a tough spot for Indiana. Do they go with upside or readiness? Athleticism or skill? Size or playmaking? They kind of get all of that here. Henry could get a look here as BPA, but Udoh makes more sense.

11. New Orleans - Xavier Henry (SG/SF):
Henry is the BPA at this point, and the Hornets love that he fell. Not only does Henry fill a gigantic hole in the Hornets rotation, but he also has the potential to be a plus player on both ends of the floor, and also has the length to play SF when Thornton is sharing the court with him.

12. Memphis - Paul George (SG/SF):
If they allow Gay to walk, then George would look like an excellent fit - and even if they do not, Mayo, George, and Gay could all play on the floor together and create huge mismatch problems with their athleticism and scoring ability.

13. Toronto - Patrick Patterson (PF):
Losing Bosh is certainly going to sting, but Toronto can’t panic. Patterson - while not a high potential player like the BPA Whiteside - could immediately come in and be a nice fit next to Bargnani.

14. Houston - Donatas Motiejunas (PF/C):
Upside pick that Houston can afford to take. Even if they make a play for Bosh or if they decide to keep Scola for another year; Donatas could learn on the bench in a system that seems like it would fit his strength. Whiteside could get a look here as BPA, but the red flags likely cause him to slip a little.

Rest of 1st Round:
15. Milwaukee (from CHI) - James Anderson (SG/SF):
Jennings needs a guy to play off his dominant ball-handling that can shoot and occasionally take it to the rim. Anderson brings that as well as decent playmaking and defense to the table for a team that could use the help on the wing immediately.

16. Minnesota (from CHA) - Hassan Whiteside (PF/C):
The Timberwolves really need help on the wing, but as three good wing prospects just went before them, they are left looking at tweener guards, tweener forwards, or the BPA in Whiteside. I think they choose Whiteside and see if a Love, Cousins, Whiteside rotation will work.

17. Chicago (from MIL) - Willie Warren (SG):
Warren has certainly fallen out of favor with the masses over the past year, but I still think he has the upside to be pretty good in the NBA. Working off more talented players, he could be a deadly sharpshooter with handles. It’s all about finding players to fit next to Rose and the FAs they bring in, I think Warren is what they’re looking for.

18. Miami - Avery Bradley (PG/SG):
Bradley isn’t currently ready to play PG in a traditional role, but the Heat don’t need that if they keep Wade. He can immediately step in and give them excellent defense as well as solid shooting in his limited minutes, while learning to become more of a playmaker.

19. Boston - Luke Babbitt (SF/PF):
Babbitt measured out better than almost everyone expected, and while I’m still not high on him, it will probably get him selected before the late-1st. I don’t think the Celtics could justify taking an athletic PF/C like Sanders when they have a bigger need for offensive production, so Babbitt gets the look here as one of the most skilled offensive players on the board.

20. San Antonio - Damion James (SF/PF):
They need toughness, length, and shooting at the SF spot since Jefferson clearly didn’t give them that. James brings those qualities and seems like a Popovich kind of player, so he’s the pick.

21. Oklahoma City - Daniel Orton (C):
I personally would dislike this pick if I were an OKC fan; however this is a mock, not my big board. Some team will reach for him early because of his size, athleticism, and thug-like nature on the court; and I think that team will be the Thunder as he is a hometown player who also fills a big need.

22. Portland - Gani Lawal (PF):
They were decimated by injuries last year, and will likely have Oden and Przybilla start off the year watching games in suits. Lawal style of play puts the ‘Power’ in Power Forward, and should prove to be a good bench player.

23. Minnesota (from UTA) - Devin Ebanks (SF/PF):
Minnesota likely moves up in the draft using this pick, but if not, I like Ebanks here. Sanders is BPA, but as they took two bigs already, they need to take a wing. Ebanks makes three picks for MIN in this mock with rumored attitude problems, but he also gives them a player with great role player potential especially on the defensive side, and seems like a good fit in Rambis’ scheme.

24. Atlanta - Larry Sanders (PF/C):
The Hawks need size and defense. Sanders brings great defensive ability as well as an excellent frame, but doesn’t have the bulk they’d be looking for. However, seeing that he’s put on about 15lbs of “good” weight in the past two seasons (he only has 4.6% body fat); I think he could eventually bulk up to 240-250 and be a menace for Atlanta.

25. Memphis (from DEN) - Eric Bledsoe (PG/SG):
Conley doesn’t seem to be a guy worth considering part of their core, even though he’s a decent player. As such, they go BPA here and go with Bledsoe who - even if Conley is kept longterm - can play a role as a comboguard off the bench that will give them a great defender and decent shooting.

26. Oklahoma City (from PHX) - Gordon Hayward (SF):
I don’t know if they keep both picks, but I’ll pick as they will. They already took Orton, so now they need to keep filling in role players around their star duo. Hayward, if he can be consistent in his stroke, would be a fine scorer on the wing to work off of Westbrook and/or Durant.

27. New Jersey (from DAL) - Terrico White (SG):
The Nets should use this pick to guess at the type of role player a star FA would want to surround him. You can never have enough role players who are very athletic as well as being decent shooters - and so even though they already have CDR on the bench, I think they go with White.

28. Memphis (from LAL) - Kevin Seraphin (PF/C):
The Grizzlies take him and then keep him overseas for a year until they have room. Once they bring him over, it seems like he and Gasol would work well together and he’d bring much needed athleticism combined with balanced skills.

29. Orlando - Darington Hobson (SG/SF):
Hobson is a decent athlete, can handle the ball, and shoot it from deep. While he doesn’t have the star potential on the wing which they seemed to need in the playoffs, he can fill a void off the bench and then eventually earn a starting spot and allow Nelson to work off him at times.

30. Washington (from CLE) - Solomon Alabi (C):
Could he slip all the way to the last pick in the 1st round? It’s possible, especially when a lot of teams don’t necessarily need a C at the end of the 1st in this mock. He gives the Wizards a legit C with good defense and budding skills, as well as a high character guy. I don’t know if he’ll ever be a big-minute player, but this is good value.

2nd Round:
31. New Jersey - Miroslav Raduljica (C)
32. Oklahoma City (from MIN) - Dominique Jones (SG)
33. Sacramento - Jerome Jordan (C)
34. Golden State - Quincy Pondexter (SF)
35. Washington - Stanley Robinson (SF)
36. Detroit - Artsiom Parakhouski (C)
37. Milwaukee (from PHI) - Trevor Booker (PF)
38. New York - Lance Stephenson (SG/SF)
39. New York (from LAC) - Jarvis Varnado (PF)
40. Indiana - Greivis Vasquez (PG/SG)
41. Miami (from NO) - Elliot Williams (SG)
42. Miami (from TOR) - Craig Brackins (SF/PF)
43. LA Lakers (from MEM) - Armon Johnson (PG/SG)
44. Portland (from CHI) - Pablo Aguilar (PF)
45. Minnesota (from HOU) - Nemanja Bjelica (SG/SF)
46. Phoenix (from CHA) - Brian Zoubek (C)
47. Milwaukee - Mikhail Torrance (PG/SG)
48. Miami - Robin Benzing (SF)
49. San Antonio - Jordan Crawford (SG)
50. Dallas (from OKC) - Derrick Caracter (PF/C)
51. Oklahoma City (from POR) - Alexey Shved (PG/SG)
52. Boston - Matt Bouldin (PG/SG)
53. Atlanta - Paulao Prestes (C)
54. LA Clippers (from DEN) - Lazar Hayward (SF)
55. Utah - Da’Sean Butler (SG/SF)
56. Minnesota (from PHO) - Vladimir Dasic (SF/PF)
57. Indiana (from DAL) - Latavious Williams (SF/PF)
58. LA Lakers - Dexter Pittman (C)
59. Orlando - Charles Garcia (PF)
60. Phoenix (from CLE) - Sylven Landesberg (SG)

June 2nd, 2010 - Big Board

2010-06-02T14:04:00.008-05:00

Been a little busy enjoying the summer, but I'm back working on this site again to get us all ready for the draft.

I just finished doing a major update to my big board, where instead of just having their name next to their rank, I now have a short synopsis of how I view the players and their attributes. Now, admittedly I am not an international expert, so those players will have shorter descriptions which may be far less helpful than looking at their respective DX, nbadraft.net, or ESPN page - but nonetheless I hope this is a helpful tool as you continue to get to know prospects strengths and weaknesses before the draft. In the coming weeks I'll be tweaking the descriptions more depending on the type of feedback I get.

Well, without further ado, the updated Big Board out to my 10th tier:
(As a reminder, the rule is that I would be able to go down one tier for need, this makes tiers more flexible and blended)

Tier 1:
1. John Wall - Elite athlete who takes advantage of fast breaks and drives seams well. Great defensive potential and comes up with big plays on that end though sometimes has mental lapses. Can create his own shot with ease, but will need to work on refining his jumper to become a complete offensive player. Prone for handling errors and tends to force things at times, but can also do some spectacular things with the ball. Is a good mix of pure and scoring point guard tendencies.

Tier 2:
2. Derrick Favors - Physical specimen with rare combination of strength and athleticism. Could play either frontcourt spot offensively, but needs to work on his jumpshot if he’s to maximize his effectiveness at the ‘4’ and his post skills if he’s going to maximize his effectiveness at the ‘5’. Tends to lose his dribble when executing post moves, but has great hands and should be a monster in terms of efficiency. At his peak, he should be one of the best defenders and rebounders, but he might lack the desire or passion on the court to be a dominant offensive player.

3. Evan Turner - A complete prospect. He is a good playmaker, handler, and floor general from the wing spot and will create mismatches because of his array of talents. Needs to keep working on his long-range jumpers, but currently has one of the best mid-range games in the draft, while also being comfortable driving to the rim - however in this area he is turnover-prone as he is too loose with his handle. He should be a plus defender because of his effort, even though he’s not the best of athletes. Might be facing an uphill battle to be a superstar, as he lacks the tools normally seen in those players, thus his potential is limited.

4. DeMarcus Cousins - He’s a dominant player in the post, able to bull over most people guarding him, but also blessed with surprisingly quick feet. Uses his body to gobble up rebounds on both ends, and has the touch to finish shots around the basket even though he’s not an explosive athlete to throw them down with ease. Has problems with maturity on the court, but not off of it. This leads him to pick up silly fouls and sometimes be an indifferent defender. Sometimes his fire is a good thing, however, as it’s what causes him to be dominant at times.

Tier 3:
5. Wesley Johnson - Elite athlete on the wing with a very effective jumper with NBA 3pt range and quick release. Doesn’t look uncomfortable with the ball, but not relied upon to handle the ball and doesn’t use his dribble to attack the basket effectively despite his physical advantages. Because of this, it leads one to believe he’ll never be seen as a star in the NBA. Good rebounder that takes advantage of positioning and his leaping ability to be an asset in that area. Defensively, he has the tools, but tends to gamble - though playing within the zone makes it hard to see how he’ll translate.

Tier 4:
6. Ed Davis - Before his season ended with a broken wrist, he showed improvement on both ends of the floor. Able to create for himself in the post as well as establish position against bigger players. Showed good touch around the hoop, but needs to add a reliable jumper to be a dangerous offensive player. Defensively, he possesses great timing and is a plus in both man and weakside situations. Can guard face-up ‘4’s effectively on the perimeter. Tends to be a little passive on the court, which brings up questions if he can ever be “the man”.

7. Xavier Henry - Overshadowed by veterans, Henry still showed his ability to play at both ends of the court and the potential to be a deadeye shooter. Has a smooth jumper with effortless release, but had a midseason slump where it was extremely streaky. Deceptively good athlete, who isn’t explosive around the rim but is able to create for himself when the situation calls for it. Not the best handler or playmaker, if he’s going to be anything more than a scorer he needs to improve in those areas. Has the length, athleticism, and strength to defend either wing position.

Tier 5:
8. Greg Monroe - Spectacular playmaker in the frontcourt who plays more like a guard than a big. Because of that, he also sports a decent jumpshot and is comfortable handling the ball on the perimeter. The downside, however, is that he’s relatively soft when playing in the post and can be easily rooted from position. Defensively, his lack of great athleticism and length, combined with the absence of the mentality to own the paint, causes him to be a neutral-at-best player on that end.

9. Al-Farouq Aminu - An intriguing combination of great length, agility, and instincts makes him an outstanding defensive prospect that can guard either Forward spot. Has a nose for the ball when it comes to rebounding. Offensively, he’s raw, having an unreliable jumper and making odd decisions when trying to make plays for himself or teammates. He is effective, however, when set up with spot-up jumpers or off offensive rebound opportunities.

10. Ekpe Udoh - Great athleticism and the biggest shoulders known to mankind are likely huge influences in helping make him a great defensive player both in man and weakside situations. Makes good decisions with the ball when making plays, however dribbles it way too high when driving to the rim. Decent jumper and post-game, but should not be relied upon as one of the top options - upside is that of a role player.

11. Paul George - Great athlete with the size and length to create mismatch problems on either end. Streaky jumpshooter who was relied upon too much in college, may become much more efficient as a 2nd or 3rd option as he shows pure form on his shot and great efficiency in spot-up situations. Ability to make plays and handle the ball is a plus. Defensively, he tends to gamble more than he should.

12. Hassan Whiteside - Being an elite weakside defender but raw man defender makes him an intriguing prospect. Great athlete with the ability to effectively guard players on the perimeter. Has a surprisingly good jumper and a decent post-game, but has tunnel vision once he gets the ball. He needs to work on his game in the post (offensively, defensively in man situations, and rebounding) to realize his great potential. A huge boom or bust prospect.

13. Cole Aldrich - Ready-made player who is a great rebounder and post defender. Has decent touch and an adequate jumper. However, he is not a good athlete and doesn’t assert himself offensively, which limits his upside.

Tier 6:
14. Donatas Motiejunas - Great athlete with a versatile game which allows him to play inside or out, play fast-paced or in the half-court. Needs to toughen up and work on his interior game to realize his great potential, otherwise he will need to be an extremely efficient offensive player to make up for the other areas in his game.

15. Devin Ebanks - Excellent defender who excels at shutting down great perimeter players despite only having decent athleticism and physical tools. He needs to bulk up to be a good post defender against the bigger ‘3’s and most ‘4’s in the NBA. Possesses a good jumper out to 15-18 feet, but efficiency drops off the map once he gets near the 3pt line even though he has good form. Passing ability is a plus, but should not be relied upon to handle the ball. Lack of athleticism and polished offensive game limit his upside.

16. Patrick Patterson - Very polished player who is good in just about every aspect you judge a PF on. Has good strength, athleticism, size, and motor which means the mismatches against him will be few and far between. Worked on his jumper so now he can spot-up out to the 3pt line with good efficiency. Lost the mentality to go after every board, and also still cannot handle or create for himself outside of the post which means he’s almost certainly a role player.

17. James Anderson - Good athlete possessing a great jumper with unlimited range as well as the ability to finish at the rim through contact. Does not look comfortable handling the ball, almost always going left when he drives and sometimes unable to create for himself when guarded by a skilled defender. Uses screens well, however, which should help him be an effective 3rd option in the NBA - however he’ll need to continue working on his handle to be anything more. Is an above average defender who tends to stay home instead of gamble.

Tier 7:
18. Avery Bradley - Great athlete and elite defender. Only offensive weapon is his jumper, both off the dribble and spotting up - but he doesn’t effectively take it to the rim nor does he draw contact. Needs to work on his handle and playmaking ability to realize his potential.

19. Willie Warren - If he were two inches taller he’d be a great prospect even though he had a down year, however at 6’4 without great length he’s small for a SG and his weaknesses become magnified. Great dribbler and ability to finish around the rim, also possesses a streaky jumpshot which is money if it’s on. However, he is an indifferent defender and even though his team was dysfunctional last year, he wasn’t helping with his selfish mentality.

20. Damion James - Nice athlete with good size and skills for a role-player SF. Tough-nosed defender who can defend most perimeter players and some post players. Has a decent jumper and can create for himself, but isn’t a guy you want handling the ball often due to his lack of playmaking ability and not being a good dribbler even when comparing him to other SFs.

21. Larry Sanders - Very athletic frontcourt player with excellent length, but lacking the strength required to guard some of the bigger post players. However, he is a great weakside defender and has solid man defensive skills. Needs to crash the boards with more fervor, as he plays a bit soft. Has worked on developing a jumper, but could stand to improve both that and his post skills.

22. Kevin Seraphin - Intruiging player with a great package of size, strength, athleticism, and length in the frontcourt. Could play either spot offensively or defensively. Needs to keep developing his offensive repertoire.

23. Eric Bledsoe - Great athlete who was forced to play out of position for most of his minutes. Showed the ability to guard either backcourt spot and was extremely focused when doing so, having few lapses. Has a good jumper, but far too often takes bad shots and is wild when driving to the rim. His playmaking skills did not appear to be very good compared to most PGs, so he’ll need to work on that or play next to a ball-dominant player who can handle the ball.

24. Darington Hobson - A versatile wing with great playmaking ability, good handles, and a nice jumper. Struggles with efficiency when guarded with long, athletic players; but at the next level he won’t be the focus of defenses as he was in his one year in the NCAA. He needs to work on his game off the ball, as well as defensive intensity to maximize his potential as a role player.

25. Gordon Hayward - Smooth player with surprising athleticism and a good jumper, however he appeared to be very streaky this year after a consistent freshman season. Plays tougher than he looks, and also is an effective defender when he’s focused. Can rebound the ball and make plays at an above average clip compared to most other SF prospects. Needs to improve his handle and become more consistent on both ends of the court.

Tier 8:
26. Artsiom Parakhouski - Skilled player with great size, decent athleticism, and the mentality people look for in a post player. Goes after every rebound and utilizes good positioning and effort to secure it. Not an explosive leaper, but still a good defender at the college level due to his size and positioning, though he struggled outside the paint. Plays below the rim, but shows good touch around the hoop and has a reliable jumper to help space the floor.

27. Terrico White - Great athlete with good length for the SG spot. Possesses solid playmaking skills and can help handle the ball, though he showed far less of this his sophomore year. Can create for himself in the halfcourt and good at driving the seams, however can be a bit reckless in his decisions which leads to him taking a few too many contested jumpers. An indifferent defender, he needs to show more intensity on this end and make use of his tools to realize his full potential and possibly become a very good starter.

28. Luke Babbitt - Very good offensive skills. Able to create for himself despite only having average handles and playing as an average or below average athlete. Has range well beyond the 3pt line, and also is dangerous close to the hoop. Surprisingly good playmaker with good vision for a combo forward. Defensively he gives effort, but frequently looks overmatched when guarding players with NBA athleticism and thus isn’t an effective defender.

29. Gani Lawal – Explosive, powerful player who has developed offensive skills in the post. Missing a reliable jumper to make him an extremely dangerous offensive player - FTs need help too. Blessed with great athleticism and length, with good length and motor. Crashes the boards well. Defensively he needs to focus more as he’s prone to picking up silly fouls and allows easy baskets a bit too often.

30. Quincy Pondexter - Great athlete who relies upon playing bigger and stronger than he is to overpower opponents. The lack of a reliable jumper and good handles could hurt him in the NBA, as his interior game will not be nearly as effective and thus he may be in for a harsh transition. Defensively, he’s very good as he shows effort and intensity so his tools are used to their fullest.

31. Craig Brackins - Skilled offensive player whose efficiency will increase when he’s not asked to carry the load. Has well developed post moves, a good midrange game, and has the ability to extend his range beyond the 3pt line in time to - when combined with his playmaking ability - become a dangerous offensive role player. Defensively, however, he is likely going to be a negative for his team, as he hasn’t seemed interested on that end.

32. Stanley Robinson - Great athlete who uses this athleticism to be a quality defender as well as an exciting player in transition or when crashing the boards offensively. Has a decent jumper, but needs to continue to improve it to become a good role player. Lacks good handles and strength, thus tends to play outside far more than inside.

Tier 9:
33. Jerome Jordan - Athletic, long player with skills on both ends. Is inconsistent in his level of play which makes it hard to project where he could go in his career. Needs to work on his jumper if he wants to be seen as a starter.

34. Daniel Orton - He’s a body blessed with great physical tools. Right now he’s raw on both ends, showing glimpses of having a decent face-up game and defensive potential to go along with those tools. Knee problems may scare off some teams, as will his tendency to play like a thug and thus pick up lots of fouls. Has a lot of work to do to become a decent NBA player, but the potential is there.

35. Solomon Alabi - Nice athlete from the C spot who can make a significant impact defensively thanks to his timing and ability to harass opposing big and guards both in the post and when he’s forced out to the perimeter. Plays a little soft, however, and needs to assert himself more on the boards - hands need work as well. Has a nice jump hook and stroke from the line, which bodes well for his ability to become a decent option in the post if he continues to improve.

36. Jarvis Varnado - Great weakside defender with outstanding timing. As a man defender, he’s in for a tough transition as he’s too small to guard most post players, and not quite agile enough to guard some face-up ‘4’s. Quality rebounder despite his lack of strength, thanks to his fundamentals. Needs to continue to work on his jumper to make a successful transition to PF.

37. Elliot Williams - Good athlete who relies on his ability to drive to the rim and finish through contact, but needs to work on his handle to become ambidextrous with the ball. Possesses an improving jumper, but needs to keep working on it to make a smooth transition to the NBA. Solid playmaker, but prone to trying to be too fancy with the ball and thus be a bit turnover prone despite not being ball-dominant. Defensively, he is below average, but this should not be his focus as his role in the NBA will be that of a scorer.

Tier 10:
38. Lance Stephenson - Good playmaker and handler for a SG, also possesses a knack for creating separation and getting up tough shots. Overly confident in his abilities, pressing too hard and frequently taking shots which are too tough instead of pulling back and passing the ball. Defensively, he shows good intensity at times, but most of the time he’s an indifferent defender. If he continues to work on his game, he has high potential, but doesn’t seem to get it.

39. Dominique Jones - A bull of a guard who loves driving to the rim and has good touch around the basket despite not being a great athlete. Decent handle and playmaking ability, can also create separation for himself, but his jumper isn’t reliable. Defensively, he puts forth good effort, but isn’t very effective.

40. Da’Sean Butler - Streaky jumpshooter who comes up big in the clutch. Knee injury may knock his athleticism down a notch, but at WVU he was an average athlete. Very complete offensive player, able to handle and make plays while also being able to drive to the rim and create separation for himself in the halfcourt. Defensively, he was mostly hidden, and doesn’t seem to possess the ability to do more than put a hand up.

41. Jordan Crawford - Volume shooter whose efficiency tailed off in bigger games. However, he can create for himself and is able to get off shots in tough situations. Playmaking and handling are there, but not a strength. On the defensive side, he looks indifferent much of the time.

42. Trevor Booker - Surprising athlete who is skilled and can rock the rim. Has worked on a jumper and has range out to 18-20 feet. Nice defensive skills, active down low and very physical. Needs to become more physical on the boards and learn better fundamentals.

43. Mikhail Torrance - SG with some very nice PG skills, however doesn’t have a takeover mentality nor athleticism which will wow anyone, thus is a classic tweener. Defensively he’ll be a liability.

44. Derrick Caracter - Big, strong post player with excellent post skills and touch around the basket. Tough-nosed rebounder and very physical defensively - however is relatively ineffective against skilled opponents and isn’t much of a weakside defender due to below average athleticism.

45. Miroslav Raduljica - Very skilled post player with legit size, range on his jumper, and decent court vision. Lacks defensive ability and toughness, and is also a subpar rebounder.

46. Pablo Aguilar - A below average athlete, he makes his living off his smooth jumper and being a smart offensive player. Defensively he’s active, but he lacks the physical tools to be a plus defender at the NBA level - only a pest.

47. Tyler Smith - Immaturity destroyed his NBA prospects, but outside of that is a solid prospect with good playmaking, average defensive ability, a decent jumper and solid physical attributes. If he can show that he’s matured, and can improve the range on his jumper out to the NBA 3pt line, he could be a solid player.

48. Lazar Hayward - Good athlete with legit size for a SF. Possesses a nice jumper with NBA range, but lacks good handles and playmaking to be anything more than a role player offensively. Defensively, shows very good effort and has the potential to be a plus defender.

49. Greivis Vasquez - Was a star in college. Good size, handles, jumper, and playmaking. His problem lies with his poor athleticism, where it is a hindrance that he cannot get around defensively, and offensively will make his transition to the pros a bumpy one.

50. Armon Johnson - Explosive guard who is at his best attacking so he can create for himself or his teammates. Spot up jumper is suspect, as is the range on it - so if he’s going to make it in the NBA it will need to be improved. Defensively, he has the tools, but seems disinterested at times.

51. Sylven Landesberg - Smooth offensive player that can create for himself and others at the SG spot, however he’s still quite raw and doesn’t always make the best play. Athletically, he is average or below average; which, when combined with his mentality defensively, makes him a minus on that end of the floor.

Wes Johnson Writeup

2010-05-23T22:04:00.000-05:00

Wesley Johnson - Jr. SF, Syracuse

Per36min numbers against Quality Opponents (22 games):
16.8pts, 8.6rebs, 1.7asts, 1.0stls, 1.8blks, 2.6 TOs, 2.3 PFs
49.3 FG%, 39.7 3pt% (31/78), 77.5 FT%, .41 FTA/FGA

A guy who wasn’t in the minds of many, if not all of the scouts who were trying to peg first round prospect to start out the year; Wesley Johnson has turned himself from an unknown to a guy in the conversation to be a top-5 pick in this draft. Unfortunately, his season did not end as he’d hope, as the Orangemen were bounced in the Sweet-16 by Butler. In that game, Johnson appeared to play within the offense, instead of going out and attempting to take over. That was the norm for Wes this season, and is likely one of the few reasons he isn’t being talked about in the same breath as Turner.

Standing 6’7 and sporting a wiry build at around 206lbs, Johnson isn’t built to bang inside with the bigs. That didn’t stop him from pulling down a respectable number of boards for a SF, however, and while some of that is due to him playing PF for a good portion of his minutes, much more can be attributed to his elite athleticism. Johnson can absolutely jump out of the gym and also sports excellent straight-line speed. He also has incredible stamina and frequently would play all 40 minutes for the Orangemen. There is little doubt that he will be among the best athletes in the NBA at the SF spot the minute he steps onto the floor, and while this is something he should regularly attempt to take advantage of by attacking the rim, he either cannot or does not because he’s not confident in his handling ability.

Because of that fact, Johnson is primarily a jumpshooter. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, however, because he possesses one of the better strokes in the draft, regardless of position. Even though he injured his thumb against Providence about halfway through the conference schedule, an injury which affected his shooting mechanics, he still managed to net the 3rd highest 3pt% out of all the players who made more than 1 three-pointer a game; while also being one of only five perimeter players boasting a PPP over 1.00. His limited ball-handling ability meant that many of his jumpers came in catch-and-shoot situations, or after one or two dribbles to help create separation.

Wes utilizes shot fakes very well compared to the other draft prospects that operate primarily from the perimeter. Around once or twice a game, you would see him fake a shot, then dribble inside the arc and either attack the basket if there was a lane, or pull up for an open 16-18 footer. This is one of the main ways Wes created space for himself to get to the basket, but he also showed decent ability to blow by the slower SFs or PFs that were guarding him. Although in the NBA there will be a great athlete against him every night, so I wonder if this will skew his ratio or jumpers to at-the-rim buckets even more.

Keeping with that trend, his post game was rarely used, and when he did post-up, he would pivot and face up to attempt jumpers as his lack of strength didn’t allow him to back down defenders even if there was a mismatch. This is one of the main reasons why Wes will have to improve (or display) his ball-handling ability, because he will transition from being a SF/PF, to a SG/SF in the NBA. However, when he’s allowed to leak inside because the defender is worried about his 3pt shot, Wes can absolutely throw down some impressive dunks because of his extraordinary leaping ability and knack for adjusting mid-air to corral the ball even if it’s thrown behind him.

From a playmaking standpoint, Wes does a good job of making the simple passes as well as rotating the ball to make the correct play for the team. This does not mean he possesses outstanding court vision for a SF prospect, because he does not, but he understood Boeheim’s offensive plan where he was a huge plus offensively. The rare times he does attempt a flashy or risky pass, they seem to connect far more often than not, so while he may not be the most skilled passer, he’s a pretty smart passer. However, because he rarely was asked to handle the ball, and when he did handle it, he seemed to be a tad wild or uncomfortable; his playmaking may be confined to stationary half-court situations.

As mentioned before, Johnson also does a good job rebounding the basketball. His 8.6 rebounds per 36 minutes placed him in the upper portion of the SF draft prospects, and while his athleticism certainly helps, his fundamentals also deserve credit. Even though he does not possess great strength, Wes is able to box out larger opponents due to understanding positioning and being quicker off his feet. This is apparent on both ends of the court, where he can be seen leaking in the lane to rise up and slam the ball home on a thunderous put-back; or on the defensive end where he’ll get inside a larger opponent and box him out. This skill will translate well to the NBA level, but as he’ll likely be playing far fewer minutes at PF and be more of a perimeter player, the opportunities will likely decrease. So while Wes will help his team in the rebounding department, continuing these high numbers should not be expected.

Last but not least, Wes certainly has the tools to be a great defender. His wingspan measured out as being pretty good for a wing, and it’s likely that all of his athletic numbers will be among the best. However, from what I saw of Wes in the Syracuse zone, he is certainly a gambler and not very fundamentally sound. Numerous times Wes would be called to the sideline where a red-faced Boeheim would be chewing him out for missing an assignment or for allowing his man to get by him because Wes would be reaching for a steal. Now, this gambling nature also caused many positive plays for his team, and this can be seen in his high steal and block numbers for a wing player; however it did not effectively decrease the efficiency of the players who came into his part of the zone.

Now, much of this could be attributed to him playing in a man-scheme his whole life, so in the zone he felt out of place. This could also be attributed to him thinking Onuaku or Jackson would essentially pick up the man who Johnson let past. Whatever the case, while there were many impressive weakside plays made by Johnson which should continue to be a positive aspect of his defensive play; the microcosms of man defense within the zone did not leave one thinking he was a great defender, despite the gaudy stats and physical tools.

Overall, Johnson should be a lock to be drafted in the 5-8 range. Because he’ll be turning 23 in July, and because his game is relatively polished for what he will likely be asked to do, there probably isn’t a lot of upside remaining. This limits him to being a guy who will likely be a team’s 3rd best player when they’re contending for a championship; however he will be an very good player who should contribute at a high level right away.

May 18th, 2010 - Mock Draft

2010-05-18T21:22:00.006-05:00

The 2010 NBA Draft Lottery selection finished a little more than two hours ago. Some fans (Washington and Philly, I'm looking at you) were elated. Others? Heart-broken.

However, what's done is done. The past is in the past. We can only look forward. As such, here's my first post-lottery NBA Mock Draft.

1. Washington - John Wall (PG):
The Arenas era is over; the John Wall era has now begun. It will be a tough year for the Blue Jesus, but with Washington having significant cap room; maybe he can lure someone there.

2. Philadelphia - Evan Turner (SG/SF):
While this should be a lock, you never know. The Sixers could decide to rebuild their frontcourt and not duplicate talent on the wing. However, I think they take Turner and figure out what to do with Iggy and their frontcourt later.

3. New Jersey - Derrick Favors (PF/C):
Lopez isn’t really a brutish player down low, but he’s a skilled offensive player who can step out and hit a jumper. Favors is a brutish player and he has the athleticism Lopez lacks. This is a spectacular fit and likely the second best player for the Nets so they can’t be too disappointed.

4. Minnesota - DeMarcus Cousins (C):
Kahn looked like he had just been punched in the nose when his card came up fourth. This represents a BPA pick and one which will drastically change the shape of the franchise as Al and Cousins likely cannot coexist, but Cousins is the larger and more talented of the two. Cousins has big-time potential if he puts it all together.

5. Sacramento - Al-Farouq Aminu (SF/PF):
This is a very tough pick for the Kings. They don’t really scoring as much as they need length, athleticism, and defense, while also grabbing a player who has the flexibility to play both the 3 and the 4. Even though this is a reach in my eyes, I’m going with Aminu here.

6. Golden State - Wesley Johnson (SF):
Tailor-made fit for the Warriors style. They could have certainly used Favors or Cousins to beef up their frontcourt, but Johnson gives them a very athletic wing that can shoot and also upgrades their height even though he’s 6’7.

7. Detroit - Ed Davis (PF/C):
Detroit needs help just about everywhere. While they do need immediate defensive help, I don’t think they can afford passing up the potential that Davis brings in order to take a safe pick like Aldrich. Since the Pistons don’t seem enamored with Villanueva starting, taking Davis fills a gap in their rotation and also can offer good play on both ends of the floor in due time.

8. LA Clippers - Xavier Henry (SG/SF):
This relegates them to being somewhat small on the wings. However, their offensive firepower surrounding Griffin would be excellent, and Henry may also bring the versatility to guard both 2s and 3s effectively.

9. Utah (from NY) - Cole Aldrich (C):
Gift wrapping Utah an NBA-ready defensive Center would be like an early Christmas. He doesn’t offer much upside, but it beats relying on Fesenko or Koufos, while also being a somewhat decent fit with Millsap.

10. Indiana - Ekpe Udoh (PF/C):
This is a tough spot for Indiana. Do they go with upside or readiness? Athleticism or skill? Size or playmaking? They kind of get all of that here. Monroe will get a look here, but next to Hibbert, Udoh fits far better and he has more of what they need.

11. New Orleans - Greg Monroe (PF/C):
New Orleans likes that he fell. He brings some of the things that West and Okafor do not have, while also being ready enough to play big minutes behind those two immediately.

12. Memphis - Devin Ebanks (SF/PF):
If they allow Gay to walk, then Ebanks fills a need quite well for them. Yes, some may say this is too early, but I think he’ll impress in workouts with his defense, midrange game, and playmaking. They need balance on their roster and Ebanks should be an excellent role player.

13. Toronto - Hassan Whiteside (PF/C):
If they lose Bosh, which it appears they will, then Toronto needs to go upside. Donatas may get a look, but I don’t know how similar he is to Bargnani, so I’m afraid to place him here at this point. Whiteside gives them weakside defense immediately, as well as immense potential; but has a lot of work to do in the weight room and in the therapists office.

14. Houston: Donatas Motiejunas (PF/C):
Upside pick that Houston can afford to take. Even if they make a play for Bosh or if they decide to keep Scola for another year; Donatas could learn on the bench in a system that seems like it would fit his strength.

15. Milwaukee (from CHI) - James Anderson (SG/SF):
Jennings needs a guy to play off his dominant ball-handling that can shoot and occasionally take it to the rim. Anderson brings that as well as decent playmaking and defense to the table for a team that could use the help on the wing immediately.

16. Minnesota (from CHA) - Paul George (SG/SF):
They need help on the wing. George brings a sweet stroke, playmaking, defense, length, and athleticism to the table. How does a guy like that fall? He’s inconsistent and hasn’t played the toughest of competition.

17. Chicago (from MIL) - Patrick Patterson (PF):
I’m sure they’d be annoyed if they missed out on Anderson, however Patterson is a very nice consolation prize. At worst, he gives them a smart, versatile PF off the bench. At best? Could work himself into a position where he’s able to play on the court with Noah and another PF.

18. Miami - Eric Bledsoe (PG/SG):
Blesdoe isn’t a true PG, but he’s a very good athlete, can shoot from 3, and is a great man defender. He may even be able to step in immediately and play the small role that a PG next to Wade is required to play.

19. Boston - Willie Warren (PG/SG):
If his head is on straight, he can offer them a sweet stroke as well as playmaking. While likely not bigger than 6’3, he should possess enough length and athleticism to not be a complete liability on the defensive end when he’s on the floor. You have to admit, him and Rondo make for a curious pairing.

20. San Antonio - Damion James (SF/PF):
They need toughness, length, and shooting at the SF spot since Jefferson clearly didn’t give them that. James brings those, and seems like a Popovich kind of player.

21. Oklahoma City - Daniel Orton (PF/C):
I personally would dislike this pick if I were an OKC fan, however this is a mock, not my big board. Some team will reach for him early because of his size, athleticism, and thug-like nature on the court. Maybe he can turn into Kendrick Perkins. Then again, maybe he’ll become like most guys who average 7pts, 8rebs, and 6fouls per 36 minutes and never amount to anything.

22. Portland - Luke Babbitt (SF/PF):
NBA ready player who can help step in and space the floor at the 3 or 4 spot? While he lacks athleticism, I don’t know if that’s a high priority for bench players on playoff teams; and I don’t think they could justify taking an athletic PF/C like Sanders with so much money tied up there - even if Oden and Przybilla will likely be injured to start the season.

23. Minnesota (from UTA) - Larry Sanders (PF/C):
They need defensive help, and they can’t afford to stash someone overseas. Sanders is an immediate upgrade to Hollins, and brings in athleticism, defense, and a budding jumper. With Cousins already on board, this could be a pretty nice fit and gives them a trio of Love, Cousins, and Sanders which offer a variety of talents.

24. Atlanta - Solomon Alabi (C):
They need size and defense. Alabi brings both, and a relatively efficient offensive game built around his hook. He needs to get stronger and become less of a foul machine against good frontcourt players, however, but in his first year he can just be a 20-25mpg role player.

25. Memphis (from DEN) - Avery Bradley (PG/SG):
I’m honestly curious as to what positions Memphis will draft. Bradley could be a pretty solid fit here as he offers a great jumper as well as defensive skill from the PG spot. However, it would mean Mayo needs to play more of a playmaker role - but if Gay is truly gone, then the ball will be in his hands much like it’s in Roy’s, and maybe this pairing would work out. That would require a lot of improvement on Mayo’s end, however.

26. Oklahoma City (from PHX) - Artsiom Parakhouski (C):
OKC needs help on the boards and Krstic isn’t getting it done being a presence on the inside. While Orton may need time to develop, Parakhouski could offer them help right away and gives them a great rebounder and relatively decent offensive option in the post. In time, he’ll be a luxury off the bench, but he could potentially start for them as a rookie, and be the yin to Ibaka’s yang.

27. New Jersey (from DAL) - Gordon Hayward (SF):
They upgraded their PF spot immensely by taking Favors, now they need to keep filling in role players around their frontcourt. Hayward, if he can be consistent in his stroke, would be a fine scorer on the wing to work off of the playmaking of Williams and the aggressiveness of Harris.

28. Memphis (from LAL) - Kevin Seraphin (PF/C):
Purely a BPA pick. They take him and then keep him overseas for a year until they have room. Once they bring him over, it seems like he and Gasol would work well together and he’d bring much needed athleticism combined with balanced skills.

29. Orlando - Darington Hobson (SG/SF):
They can afford to take BPA here, and Hobson gives them a versatile wing which allows Nelson to play off the ball some when he’s on the court as well as being able to space the floor as a spot-up shooter. His lack of athleticism should not hurt as much with Howard being the goal keeper.

30. Washington (from CLE) - Quincy Pondexter (SF):
Surrounding Wall with athletes is a must. Pondexter has great potential on the defensive end to be a stopper, and may eventually settle into a role like James Posey - though he’ll need to keep working on his jumper.

NBA Lottery History

2010-05-17T17:45:00.006-05:00

So I wrote up this article for a Timberwolves forum two years back about how bad the Timberwolves luck has been in the lottery. I had used the DraftExpress Lottery History page to formulate all the odds for the #1 and #2 picks (the #2 pick odds had to be estimated for 1990-1993), and then went on to describe how unlucky the Timberwolves were.

Well today, I decided to do more than that. I have gone through and used that DX page to get the odds on every team for each season from 1990 to 2009 (check the starred rows on the sheets marked #1 and #2 for the %s), and then went through to describe how lucky or unlucky some of the teams have been. The results are after the jump.

There have been 14 different teams who have landed the #1 pick in the draft in the past 20 years. Four of those teams have been lucky enough to win the #1 pick two times (the Bulls, Clippers, Bucks, and Nets), while the Orlando Magic have been lucky enough to win it three times. Out of the remaining teams, the most unlucky as far as winning the lottery is concerned, are my beloved Minnesota Timberwolves - with a 77.5% chance that they should have won the lottery by now if all of this were to be done again. The Denver Nuggets were a close second at 75.5%, and the Memphis/Vancouver Grizzlies third at 72.6%.

Since there are quite a few drafts which were considered two player drafts, I did this again for the odds to get the 1st and 2nd picks. Ten teams have been unlucky enough to not land a top-2 pick in the past 20 years. One of those teams, the Lakers, hardly count in this type of measurement as they have been wildly successful and have had very low odds to claim a top pick the two times they have been in the lottery. The most unlucky of those teams? Again, the Minnesota Timberwolves at 96.1% chance that they should have been in the top-two by now. Next up are the Denver Nuggets at 93.2% and then the Sacramento Kings a noticeably distance back at 86.0%.

Moral of the story? The woeful Timberwolves are certainly due for some luck.

Paul George Writeup

2010-05-15T21:13:00.004-05:00

Paul George - So. SG/SF, Fresno State

Per36min numbers against Quality Opponents (10 games):
17.8 pts, 7.1 rebs, 3.3 asts, 2.1 stls, 0.6 blks, 4.3 TOs, 2.9 PFs
35.5 FG%, 27.3 3pt% (15/55), 90.0 FT%, .43 FTA/FGA

After two years of playing at Fresno State, Paul George is a relative enigma to the casual fan. Playing in the WAC did not offer him many opportunities to go up against quality NCAA teams, as the best WAC teams of the past two seasons (Utah State and Nevada) did not exactly offer the type of NBA-caliber talent to go up against that teams in the major conferences could. However, the diligent fan could find games being streamed online, and in those games they could see that his talent stood out on the court.

Standing about 6’7 and weighing roughly 205lbs, George isn’t powerfully built. That’s not his game, however, as he’s more comfortable on the perimeter than he is slashing to the rim and working on the block. Seeing as he has pretty good athleticism and wingspan for a wing, this may not be taking full advantage of his physical gifts; but word is he wasn’t challenged to expand his role at Fresno State, and thus he stayed in the area he was comfortable in. This has reportedly changed since he declared for the draft, and now he’s expanding his game to being more adept at handling the ball and getting to the rim.

It was kind of a tale of two seasons for Paul. Before he sprained his ankle, he was 46.9% from the field and 39.1% from 3pt range. After he came back, he went 33.9% from the field and 28.1% from range. Now, could it be that the difference lied in the quality of competition? Potentially, but I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt in how he finished the season and say that he just lost his rhythm during the time off or that the ankle continued to bother him.

However, it also could be that he’s a streaky shooter. It’s no secret that George relies heavily on his jumper. Nearly half of his attempts on the year were from 3pt range, and when you saw him play during games he would hover around the perimeter and either catch and shoot or look to create jumpers after one or two dribbles. He was effective creating separation from his defender in most instances, but even though his shot appears pure, late in the year they were not falling at the same rate as they were in the beginning. For someone who doesn’t take advantage of his relatively good handle and clear athletic advantage in college by going to the rim, this spelled doom to his efficiency numbers and put him at a 0.81 PPP - tied for last among the SF prospects.

Now, I do believe his shooting stroke is pure, which is why I have him ranked as a fringe lottery pick. The evidence which helps back this up comes in his freshman numbers, numbers from the first half of this year, and his obscenely high FT% for a wing. Combine this with the fact that he likely will not be the focus of defenses in the NBA as he tended to be in college, and I think his efficiency will improve.

Enough about that, time to talk about other facets of his game outside of his long-range jump shot. When in the post, George likes to spin and attempt fadeaways and rarely uses these opportunities to take it to the rim. This isn’t a problem, as he doesn’t necessarily have the strength to do this in the pros either; but it does effectively limit him to working from the perimeter until he can hit those at a high rate or develop some kind of reliable counter. As mentioned earlier, he also wasn’t effective late in the year when it came to attempting jumpers off the dribble; but I’m wary at declaring this as being a weakness of his since it’s possible the ankle injury played a large role in his woes. I really wish he used his athleticism and handle to take it to the rack more, as when he did he seemed to be very effective at finishing (he’s truly an electrifying dunker), but at this point it’s not a part of his game, though it’s rumored that during the offseason he’s been working on it so stay tuned to news from workouts.

As mentioned, he almost certainly won’t be the focal point of an offense in the NBA, so the fact that he has off the ball and playmaking skills greatly helps his cause. Paul possesses good court vision and passing ability for a wing prospect, showing the ability to recognize when he should rotate the ball, make the simple pass, or create a shot for a teammate by threading it into the post with a quick flick of the wrist. However, he makes poor decisions by trying to force things too often, which results in his occasional good playmaking go to waste because of the unnecessary turnovers he commits. This will certainly need to be corrected at the pro level, because a non-star on the wing should not be wasting possessions for his team. Again, this was rumored to be something he’s improved, so stay tuned to how he performs in 3-on-3 action in the workouts.

Defensively, George has all the tools to be a good or potentially great wing defender. He has the lateral food speed, length, and leaping ability to be a very effective pest. His problem lies in the gambling nature which he was allowed to get away with at Fresno State. This mentality allowed him to make many impressive plays, including jumping the passing lanes for steals and breakaway plays for himself or his teammates; as well as weakside blocks near the hoop where he shows off his impressive vertical and timing. However, this also allowed his man to have some open jumpers when George would sag into the paint, or allow him to cut into the lane after he would lunge for a steal. Even with those flaws, he showed himself to be a pretty good man defender on the perimeter; and with proper coaching he could be a plus player on that end of the floor against the smaller SFs, though may have great problems against the stronger SFs in the NBA like Melo or Wallace who like to post up.

Overall, Paul’s great physical tools, smooth stroke, relatively good playmaking skills, and defensive aptitude make him a tantalizing prospect. There’s a lot of uncertainty with him and how he’ll make the transition, so opinions of him will be all over the board. Me? I like him as an option for teams in the late lottery and mid-first because of his potential as a role player who, if he puts it all together, could become a guy who gets some all-star looks in his career.

Follow him on Twitter: King24George

Draft Prospect Odds Sheet 4-26-2010

2010-04-26T09:14:00.002-05:00

For the last two year's I have made a sheet displaying how likely I think it is that a player will reach a certain level after he's reached his peak or 4-5 years after he's been drafted. I have divided the levels into seven categories: Franchise player, recurring all-star, fringe all-star, solid starter, fringe starter, decent bench player, or out of the league.

The first such sheet for this season can be seen here

On the far right column, the rating of the player can be seen. This is a basic formula where the odds of each category are each given a certain value (with out of the league carrying a negative rating), and then are added together to give the final score. The rating provides me with yet another useful tool when ranking players, as I figure out another way to extract how I truly feel about the prospects of a player instead of just some blanketed overview.

Disagree with some of the odds? Don't like how this is done? Let me know - you can find me on twitter under HoopsCasper.

Consensus Big Board 4-17-2010

2010-04-17T16:25:00.003-05:00

So the college season ended and I gave every site I follow a week or so to update their big board so that I could get the latest Consensus Rankings up. Lots of people moved around, some jumped up noticeably (I'm looking at you Daniel Orton) while others slid down because of all the movers.

This will be the last update of the Consensus Rankings until after some more prospect info goes out, so probably sometime in early May. So I'll leave you with the latest updated average rankings of players on their big boards (DX, nba-draft.com, ESPN, and yours truly - respectively):

1. John Wall - Fr. PG (1,1,1,1):
ESPN Profile

2. Evan Turner - Jr. SG/SF (2,2,2,2):
ESPN Profile

3. DeMarcus Cousins - Fr. PF/C (3,3,4,4):
ESPN Profile

4. Derrick Favors - Fr. PF (4,4,3,3):
ESPN Profile

5. Wesley Johnson - Jr. SF (8,5,5,5):
ESPN Profile

6. Ed Davis - So. PF (7,7,7,6):
ESPN Profile

7. Al-Farouq Aminu - So. F (5,6,6,12):
ESPN Profile

8. Cole Aldrich - Jr. C (6,8,8,8):
ESPN Profile

9. Greg Monroe - So. PF/C (9,9,10,7):
ESPN Profile

10. Jan Vesely - 19yrs F (11,13,9,14):
DX Profile

11. Ekpe Udoh - Jr. PF/C (13,12,12,13):
ESPN Profile

12. Hassan Whiteside - Fr. PF/C (18,10,13,10):
ESPN Profile

13. Donatas Motiejunas - 19yrs PF/C (12,11,14,15):
DX Profile

14. Xavier Henry - Fr. SG/SF (14,17,17,9):
ESPN Profile

15. Patrick Patterson - Jr. PF (10,15,15,18):
ESPN Profile

16. James Anderson - Sr. SG/SF (20,14,24,19):
ESPN Profile

17. Paul George - So. SG/SF (22,26,22,17):
ESPN Profile

18. Gordon Hayward - So. SF (28,18,18,24):
ESPN Profile

19. Eric Bledsoe - Fr. G (36,16,16,27):
ESPN Profile

20. John Henson - Fr. F (25,28,26,16):
ESPN Profile

21. Larry Sanders - Jr. PF/C (19,27,25,26):
ESPN Profile

22. Elias Harris - Fr. F (23,23,28,23):
ESPN Profile

23. Solomon Alabi - So. C (17,24,21,35):
ESPN Profile

24. Stanley Robinson - Sr. F (16,21,27,34):
ESPN Profile

25. Quincy Pondexter - Sr. SF (24,19,23,32):
ESPN Profile

Devin Ebanks Writeup

2010-04-12T11:34:00.002-05:00

Devin Ebanks - So. SF/PF, West Virginia

Per36min numbers against Quality Opponents (27 games):
12.2 pts, 8.6 rebs, 2.7 asts, 1.1 stls, 0.5 blks, 1.7 PFs, 2.3 TOs
47.2 FG%, 15.8 3pt% (3/19), 76.2 FT%, .55 FTA/FGA

Devin Ebanks may be the consummate role player at the SF spot. He plays with energy on both ends, he crashes the boards, he is unselfish and moves the ball well, he is an outstanding man defender and great team defender, he can score efficiently from within 15 feet, and he can knock his FTs down.

At 6’8, 210lbs Ebanks is not a physically imposing player. However, even though he only has above average length and athleticism in NBA terms, he is a menace on the defensive end and can play in the paint as well as well as check the opposing team’s most talented offensive player. While he doesn’t posses great straight-line speed with the ball in his hands, he is fast moving without the ball. Even though he only has mediocre leaping ability, he is efficient finishing inside and does a great job challenging shots. Even though his lateral quickness isn’t elite, he understands positioning defensively to cut off lanes and stay in front of his man. Honestly, his biggest advantage athletically over his SF competition may be that he never appears to tire, especially on the defensive end.

Offensively, Ebanks has learned to play within himself and because of that his efficiency has risen. Some may point to the season-long numbers and claim they haven’t improved from 2008-09, however his last 15 or 20 games he stopped taking the long jumpers which are currently his bane, and stopped forcing the issue. This has led to a substantial increase in his efficiency to where he’s rose from the bottom of the SF pack in terms of offensive efficiency to the middle at 0.91 PPP - impressive considering he doesn’t currently have a reliable 3pt shot in his arsenal.

A common misconception about Devin is that he can’t shoot. While he has the worst 3pt% out of all the players in my database who attempt more than 0.5 3’s a game, he has one of the more effective midrange shots in the current SF crop - something I expect to be backed up when DraftExpress does their annual SynergySports write-ups. Nevertheless, even with the good midrange shot, his lack of a 3pt shot is his biggest detraction as a prospect and it’s something which I had hoped to see him improve upon from his freshman season. Extending the range on his jumper needs to be his primary objective, as because he is only reliable out to 15 feet, the value of his other offensive skills lessens as neither the ability to space the floor nor the threat of a jumper when he’s on the perimeter are there.

However, even with the struggles with his range, those other offensive skills are what make him a good role player prospect offensively. I’ll first touch on his passing, court vision, and decision-making. Some may point to the lack of awareness of the dwindling game clock against Villanova, or the 8 TOs against Washington and claim I have no clue what I’m talking about. Yes, those are two recent events which are blemishes, however, if you take a look at his season as a whole, and then realize that every player has made mistakes which are egregious this season; you realize they aren’t the norm for Devin. He boasts the 3rd best A:TO ratio among Forwards while netting the 4th most assists, and has, along with teammate Da’Sean Butler, spent time substantial playing point forward for WVU. When he gets the ball on the wing, he looks to create for teammates first and himself second. While he’s not a flashy passer like Hobson, he makes the simple passes and sees open teammates much better than your normal SF prospect.

Another offensive strength is his motion within the offense which can probably attributed to the type of offense Huggins likes to play. Nonetheless, Ebanks will be seen cutting to the rim, setting or coming off screens, or going into the high-post to help break a zone or draw in defenders so that teammates can get open perimeter shots. Whether it comes naturally to Ebanks, or it was ingrained into his style by Huggins, the fact that he is rarely ever stationary in the corner waiting for a pass for a full possession is going to be a nice asset for some NBA team - and it’s something that a lot of players have trouble with when the ball is not in their hands.

Like most prospects, he has his weaknesses. Most of his stem from being a mediocre at best ball handler who picks up his dribble far too easily when pressured by the defense. This limits his effectiveness driving the ball from the hoop, and also his ability to give his team another quality option bringing the ball up the floor. As far as his point forward skills are concerned, to make the transition to the NBA level his point forward abilities that he showed at WVU, he’ll need to work on his handle with both hands and become quicker with the ball.

Another weakness is the refinement in his post-up game, mainly due to his lack of strength. When he gets the ball in the post, whether from a post-entry pass or from an offensive rebound, he shows ability to convert when he has position; however when he’s left to create something for himself, he’ll frequently rely on a step back fadeaway or attempt to spin around his opponent as he doesn’t seem to have reliable touch on a hook shot or an up and under. I don’t know if this is something which needs immediate attention because he appears to be more of a mid-range guy, but it’s a weakness nonetheless.

Moving away from scoring and playmaking skills, Ebanks is one of the better rebounders. He’s in that second tier of offensive rebounders at the SF spot behind Aminu, though defensively he’s not quite as strong as he spends a lot of his time guarding the other team’s top perimeter threat or being the point man when WVU goes zone. However, he shows good fundamentals boxing his man out even though he is relatively light for a SF, and multiple times a game he will just outwork or outsmart the opposing team to get a rebound. This hustling will translate well to the NBA level because of his height and deceptive agility, but the fundamentals may not, as he will certainly need to add strength in order to continue to box out players like he does.

By far his biggest asset as a prospect is his defensive ability. I’ll start off with his man defense, where Ebanks has guarded, and done a significantly better job than his teammates in doing so, a variety of top college players such as Scottie Reynolds, Evan Turner, and even bigs like Greg Monroe. Something ESPN posted shortly after the Villanova game was that on 37 possessions Ebanks guarded Reynolds, he had 4 points, 1-5 FG, and 4 TOs; whereas on the other 27 possessions WVU players guarded Reynolds, he had 17 points, 4-5 FG, and 0 TOs. This was a similar situation to when Ebanks was put onto Turner in the second half of the OSU game and he proceeded to go quiet after having a monster first half against the WVU zone.

Simply put, he doesn’t let his lack of elite physical tools get in the way of being an elite defender. He actively uses his arms to both shut off potential passing lanes and also help funnel his man away from where he wants to go and into the part of the WVU defense which can help. He doesn’t go for blocks, but rather is an effective defender and harasses them into lower percentage shots by getting a hand up near their face and sticking close by them to not give them any room - without fouling might I add. Those who say Ebanks has not made any progress this season from last will point to the steal and block numbers to say he hasn’t made improvements defensively, but as I have explained, this is far from the case.

When it comes to team defense, the responsibility Huggins routinely gives Ebanks by putting him at the point of their 1-3-1 zone to help disrupt the opposing offenses and help trap ball-handlers in the corner. This can also be seen in the intelligent rotations he makes off his man assignments to give help in the post, or in the way he jumps passing lanes to create fast-break opportunities for himself and his teammates. Pretty much, Ebanks is the total package defensively, and will be able to spend time guarding the 1-4 spots in the pros.

Overall, while it may have been a disappointment in terms of his scoring output this season, Ebanks has been simply amazing in how effective he’s been defensively. Taking a backseat to Da’Sean Butler may not have been a bad thing for his development either, as he likely better understands what his future role will be, and may have lost the rumored attitude problems which had been there early in his college career. So while some may be wary of taking a prospect who may never be more than a 4th option offensively in the NBA, I believe his defensive ability, role-player skills, and intangibles make him a good prospect in the late-lottery or mid-first and currently have him slotted 11th on my board.

NBA Mock Draft (4-1-2010)

2010-04-01T21:22:00.003-05:00

Mock Time!

John Henson, Kemba Walker, Elias Harris, Luke Babbitt, Jordan Crawford, and Jeff Taylor were excluded from the mock. The rest of the guys listed above are fair game. You can see I added Vesely and Motiejunas to the big board since the last mock, but I'm certainly not knowledgeable about either, going to do my best on placing them, however.

1. New Jersey - John Wall (PG):
Ba-dow!

2. Minnesota - Evan Turner (SG/SF):
No Wall? Okay, I'd be kind of bummed, but getting Turner would still be fantastic and fill a big... no... humongous need. 35mpg of great all-around play straight out.

3. Golden State - DeMarcus Cousins (C):
One of the tougher decisions. Favors fits their uptempo style while also being able to physically play against any PF and most Cs in the league. Cousins, however, gives them a beast down low to form a pretty good inside-outside game with Curry.

4. Washington - Derrick Favors (PF/C):
Blatche doing well? That's good and all, but Favors has star potential and Blatche and Favors really aren't a bad fit in the frontcourt, especially with McGee being the third big in the trio. Nice start to their rebuild by picking up a guy with the potential to be the best player in the draft.

5. Detroit - Ed Davis (PF/C):
Curious team they have assembled, so it's kind of hard to peg where they'd go with this pick. Davis can come in and give them solid production right away at PF or C while having plenty of room to grow. Problem is, he seemed passive on both ends.

6. Sacramento - Hassan Whiteside (PF/C):
Another tough spot. Johnson is BPA and Whiteside is a headcase. However, Sacramento needs to go with potential, and Whiteside has plenty of that and could be a pretty nice fit in their frontcourt if he pans out.

7. Philadelphia - Wesley Johnson (SF):
Might be the steal of the draft. Then again, it might be the correct kind of value. Seems like a nearly perfect fit next to Iguodala and this could launch them into the playoffs next year.

8. Utah (from NY) - Cole Aldrich (C):
This one seems like a pretty good match. Utah needs a defensive presence and size in the frontcourt, even if they play great team defense. This pick allows them to get an NBA ready player who is great at what he's made to do.

9. LA Clippers - Al-Farouq Aminu (SF/PF):
They have a hole at SF, and could use the versatility for their SF to play inside or out if they decide to go small-ball and have Griffin at C for some of his minutes. Great athlete with upside, however I'm skeptical if he'll ever reach it.

10. Indiana - Xavier Henry (SG/SF):
Another sharpshooter in Indiana? Well, they are kind of shooting themselves in the foot by playing so well. This pick wouldn't doom them to mediocrity, because Henry has room in his game to grow and become a star, but it's not the athletic PF that they desperately need.

11. New Orleans - Greg Monroe (PF/C):
If they move CP3, which some would say is a real possibility, then this pick could become a pure upside pick because they'd be in rebuilding mode. As it stands now, however, they need a player who still has potential to add to his game, but also can give them minutes right away. Would be able to play off Okafor or West pretty well.

12. Milwaukee (from CHI) - Jan Vesely (SF/PF):
Upside, upside, upside. I have no clue what his exact contract situation is, but an athletic 4 who can spread the floor and seems to have the game to work extremely well off of Bogut and next to Jennings who likes to run... I like it.

13. Houston - Donatas Motiejunas (PF/C):
Same deal as in all the drafts I've done - Houston is kind of stuck not really needing help anywhere, but certainly could use a backup plan in the frontcourt in case Yao never returns to what he was, and needs a guy on their roster who could potentially blow up and become something great.

14. Memphis - Devin Ebanks (SF/PF):
Makes Gay expendable if they don't want to pay? I think he could be the consummate role player at SF in the NBA. Great pairing with Mayo, and even if Gay stays, he fits in better with that team than Sam Young backing up the forward spots.

15. Miami (from TOR) - Ekpe Udoh (PF/C):
If Wade stays, they need an NBA-ready player. If Wade leaves, they need a guy with upside. Udoh is both, though may never become more than a 3rd big in the NBA. Defense, playmaking, and athleticism all in one frontcourt player is nice to have.

16. Minnesota (from CHA) - Paul George (SG/SF):
Athleticism which the Timberwolves desperately need? Check. Outside shot the Timberwolves desperately need? Check. Nice playmaking to work in the triangle? Check. Weakside defense the Timberwolves need? Check. Why does a guy like him fall then? Inconsistent, a defensive gambler, and doesn't attack the rim like he should.

17. Miami - James Anderson (SG/SF):
I don't know how well he'd work defensively next to Wade, but getting a guy this low who can score right away in the NBA is pretty good value. Not having to be a primary option makes those ball-handling issues become minute.

18. Chicago (from MIL) - Patrick Patterson (PF):
Likely wish they never made the deal with Milwaukee if they don't land a star FA in the summer, but if they do, then falling six spots and missing out on a chance at the two Europeans is going to sting. Patterson is a nice fit and can play next to a guy very similar to Wall, but more seasoned. I think it'd be great if he worked himself into playing spot minutes at SF.

19. San Antonio - Darington Hobson (SG/SF):
Kind of an odd pick for a Spurs team. However, with Manu potentially leaving, Jefferson not really giving them what they'd hope... I like it. Hobson can allow Parker to be more of a scorer while Hobson is a playmaker when he's in the game.

20. Portland - Larry Sanders (PF/C):
Decimated by injuries in the frontcourt, Portland went out and traded for Camby. Sanders isn't a Camby-clone, but he is athletic and does have nice weakside skills and ability to defend PFs (he gets pushed around by Cs) in the post. Kind of a tricky pick for me to come up with.

21. Oklahoma City - Artsiom Parakhouski (C):
They need size in the post. They have great players and prospects in the backcourt. They have Ibaka coming into his own in the frontcourt, but they need a big C to bang down low and grab rebounds. If he were a better defensive player, or played more teams which could offer him a challenge, he may go higher, but he wasn't and he didn't.

22. Boston - Willie Warren (SG):
Could be the steal of the draft. Could be a guy who never gets it. Could stay in school. But man... he could be great. Lots of could's, that pretty much sums up what I think of Warren.

23. Memphis (from DEN) - Eric Bledsoe (PG/SG):
I think he should stay in school, but it seems like he's leaving. Is he really a PG? We never really got to see at UK, but when he had the ball in his hands he seemed like a comboguard with relatively poor playmaking skills. Either way, Memphis needs another PG, and Bledsoe could be a nice pairing with Mayo.

24. Atlanta - Solomon Alabi (C):
They need size and defense to win a championship. Alabi technically gives them size... even if he's one of the softest C's outside of Hollins. I like the potential reward for Atlanta, however, and in his first year he can just be a fouling machine who gives them defense for 15mpg while they try to become a true contender.

25. Oklahoma City (from PHX) - Stanley Robinson (SF/PF):
Eh, I don't know what OKC is going to do with two rookies. Robinson plays the same position as Green, but he has a different type of role. Seems like a waste in OKC, however.

26. Minnesota (from UTA) - Damion James (SF/PF):
One wing. Two wings. Three wings? Last year it was about the PGs for the Timberwolves, this year it will be about the wings. Very nice value pick here and makes Gomes very expendable. Gives them a tougher wing than either Turner or George, and a guy who will give you his maximum effort every game.

27. New Jersey (from DAL) - Gordon Hayward (SF):
Nice value pick for them, even if they have a lot of wing prospects already on their roster. With the way Williams has been playing, Hayward would be a pretty good player next to him and Wall if they all do what I think they could. I might have him falling too far in this mock, however.

28. Orlando - Quincy Pondexter (SF/PF):
Pondexter plays bigger than he is, which works well next to a softie PF in Lewis. I don't know how well his game would work with a tank inside like Howard who stays in or near the paint at all times, but he's well worth a look for them if only because it gives them an athlete.

29. Memphis (from LAL) - Avery Bradley (PG/SG):
I can't see Memphis keeping three picks with the roster they have, but if they do, how interesting would it be for them to have Bledsoe, Bradley, and Mayo in the backcourt?

30. Washington (from CLE) - Dominique Jones (SG):
He's a scorer, who likely will be best served coming off the bench in the NBA, but for a Washington team who will likely struggle mightily, he seems like a decent option.

Thanks for checking this out. Comments? Questions? Criticism?

NBA Draft Big Board (April 1st, 2010)

2010-04-01T21:19:00.001-05:00

It's that time again.

Tournament is basically over for the notable prospects on most people's boards, but I'm an Ebanks superfan so I'm still paying lots of attention. Anyway, there's a lull before Saturday's game, so I threw this together for kicks. Big Board has flexible tiers, so going down one tier for a much greater need is alright. Mock excludes Henson, Walker, Harris, and Babbitt off my board, because I'm skeptical that those guys will enter. All the rest are fair game.

Tier 1:
1. John Wall

Tier 2:
2. Evan Turner

Tier 3:
3. Derrick Favors
4. DeMarcus Cousins

Tier 4:
5. Wesley Johnson
6. Ed Davis

Tier 5:
7. Greg Monroe
8. Cole Aldrich
9. Xavier Henry
10. Hassan Whiteside

Tier 6:
11. Devin Ebanks
12. Al-Farouq Aminu
13. Jan Vesely
14. Ekpe Udoh
15. Donatas Motiejunas

Tier 7:
16. John Henson
17. Paul George
18. Patrick Patterson
19. James Anderson

Tier 8:
20. Darington Hobson
21. Kemba Walker
22. Willie Warren
23. Elias Harris
24. Gordon Hayward
25. Damion James
26. Larry Sanders
27. Artsiom Parakhouski

Tier 9:
28. Avery Bradley
29. Eric Bledsoe
30. Luke Babbitt
31. Quincy Pondexter
32. Dominique Jones
33. Stanley Robinson
34. Solomon Alabi
35. Craig Brackins

Tier 10:
36. Da'Sean Butler
37. Jerome Jordan
38. Jarvis Varnado
39. Gani Lawal
42. Kyle Singler
41. Jordan Crawford
42. Jeff Taylor

Consensus Rankings of 2009-10 Season

2010-03-26T17:56:00.004-05:00

Once the college season commenced, I started keeping track of the rankings of players on the three major sites I followed, as well as my own. Once I stumbled upon nba-draft.com, I added them to the consensus as they seemed to update their Big Board fairly regularly, and it was a quality website so I felt it was a great addition. During the periods which NBADraft.net hasn't kept their big board current, I have dropped them from the rankings so they aren't as skewed.

Basically, I have logged these so that we could get a true feel for how player rankings have changed throughout the year. DraftExpress.com is the only site which keeps a history of some sort on rankings, and this transparency is a good thing because it gives their audience a better view of how a player's stock changed throughout the year in the eyes of DX. However, they only keep track of a history on how a players standing changed in their Mock Drafts, but I'm more curious as to how Big Boards change.

This led to me tracking the change of the Big Boards of the "major" NBA draft websites. The file where you can see these rankings can be found here. After the break, I'll give an overview of how it is all set up.

First off, I'll explain how it's laid out.

The dates of the updates and names of the boards I used are located on the sheet labeled "Legend". Pretty self-explanatory.

The order of names is currently set up for the most recent update, the one compiled on March 24th, 2010. When a player does not have at least 3/4 of the "panel" ranking them, I am left guessing where to slot them in the order I organize them in. This order is just a way to make the process of logging names easier, as well as determining the top-25 for my updates that I post on various forums.

You'll notice a lot of blank places next to names. I left them blank because I don't want to label all of those players as "n+1", where "n" is the highest ranking that that website gave to a player, mainly because this would lead to some relatively unknown or ignored players to have their rankings negatively skewed and that wouldn't truly reflect where they should be at. I know in my case, I do not rank a player unless I've seen them at least twice, and in the case of the International players, I only added them this past week because I felt I had read enough about them so that while even though I hadn't seen a full game of theirs, I could estimate where I felt they should be ranked.

Also, you'll notice that my list of players gradually increased to the point where it's at now. This is due to me not wanting to log all 100 players on the ESPN or DX boards if they don't hold a high ranking (I deemed "high" as ~60) on at least one board. To those who say I wasn't being thorough if I didn't log every ranking... that may be the case, but it takes a good chunk of time to update and if I had logged every ranking every week, my list would likely have over 250 names and it would be tedious work when a lot of it just isn't necessary.

This may have caused some players like Trey Thompkins to start being logged much later than they would have if I logged every player... but overall I feel this is a good reflection of when players came into the public eye. In the case of Wesley Johnson, the first couple weeks I only logged up to around 30 because I wasn't sure how many names I wanted to keep track of due to time constraints. However, I can say with confidence that he wasn't top-25, and almost certainly not top-30 on any board the first week.

As far as my boards, not having the time or resources to see all the players I wanted until the season wore on and games became more and more televised, I was not able to "catch up" on all the prospects I may have missed ranking initially. So while some may say, "he had Alex Oriakhi as the 41st ranked prospect at one point?!" I hope I can assure you that I did not truly feel he was the 41st best prospect overall, but rather that he was 41st out of the 43 players I had ranked that week. As I watched more and more teams and more and more games, my rankings became more defined and guys like Oriakhi, while they stayed in relatively the same position at the bottom, had their ranking drop.

You'll also see roughly a month layoff where I did not update the board. This was for a variety of reasons, one of which because websites were not updating their big boards, and another because I was busy trying to watch as many games as I could to expand my list.

Alright, that's enough talk... enjoy the file.

Consensus Big Board

2010-03-24T11:35:00.006-05:00

Roughly every week I go through the major draft websites I follow and track the rankings of prospects on their big boards. I do not track mock drafts as one website may have a prospect listed in their 2010 mock, while another has them listed in their 2011 mock and then how is one supposed to determine how to rank such a prospect for the 2010 NBA Draft when we, at this point, do not know for sure who is declaring this year? As such, I track the big boards of those websites, as they do not (or should not) segregate prospects based on when they think they will declare, but rather they rank them on how they feel their current talent and potential will translate to the NBA level.

I normally include nbadraft.net in these rankings, but as they haven't updated their big board since the middle of January, I have excluded them as it distorts the current state of the general consensus. Also, in these posts I will only go out to the top-25, however I plan on uploading the spreadsheet I keep with has the rankings of all the prospects I track and how the rankings have changed throughout the year.

Enough of the discussion, here are the updated average rankings of players according to the big boards (DX, nba-draft.com, ESPN, and yours truly - respectively):

1. John Wall - Fr. PG (1,1,1,1):
ESPN Profile

2. Evan Turner - Jr. SG/SF (2,2,2,2):
ESPN Profile

3. DeMarcus Cousins - Fr. PF/C (3,3,4,4):
ESPN Profile

4. Derrick Favors - Fr. PF/C (4,4,3,3):
ESPN Profile

5. Wesley Johnson - Jr. SF (8,5,5,5):
ESPN Profile

6. Ed Davis - So. PF (7,8,7,6):
ESPN Profile

7. Al-Farouq Aminu - So. F (5,6,6,12):
ESPN Profile

8. Cole Aldrich - Jr. C (6,7,8,8):
ESPN Profile

9. Greg Monroe - So. PF/C (9,9,9,7):
ESPN Profile

10. Hassan Whiteside - Fr. PF/C (18,10,10,9):
ESPN Profile

11. Donatas Motiejunas - 19yrs PF/C (12,11,12,15):
DX Profile

12. Jan Vesely - 19yrs F (11,15,11,14):
DX Profile

13. Patrick Patterson - Jr. PF (10,13,13,18):
ESPN Profile

14. Xavier Henry - Fr. SG/SF (14,14,18,10):
ESPN Profile

15. Ekpe Udoh - Jr. PF/C (13,16,15,13):
ESPN Profile

16. James Anderson - Sr. SG/SF (20,12,17,19):
ESPN Profile

17. Stanley Robinson - Sr. F (16,17,20,31):
ESPN Profile

18. Paul George - So. SG/SF (22,25,24,17):
ESPN Profile

19. Larry Sanders - Jr. PF/C (19,24,22,24):
ESPN Profile

20. Quincy Pondexter - Sr. SF (24,22,16,30):
ESPN Profile

21. Elias Harris - Fr. F (23,20,26,25):
ESPN Profile

22. Solomon Alabi - So. C (17,21,21,36):
ESPN Profile

23. Eric Bledsoe - Fr. G (35,19,14,29):
ESPN Profile

24. Avery Bradley - Fr. G (36,18,19,28):
ESPN Profile

25. John Henson - Fr. F (25,28,34,16):
ESPN Profile

Quality Opponent Statistics

2010-03-23T19:48:00.003-05:00

The statistics which were piled up against subpar teams aren't as useful to gauge a player as those which came against quality competition. Because of this, I go through and pick out teams which I view as the quality opponents a prospect could face (using RPI and then favoring the teams in the power conferences and quality mid-major conferences) and then log the stats of the high-profile prospects.

The link for the spreadsheet for everyone to view is here. I will discuss some of the best and worst after the break.

For the summaries of best and worst performers, I will use the per 36 minute numbers where appropriate, as that levels the playing field and almost all of these prospects are major contributors for the teams they play for. Also, if you are unfamiliar with Points Per Possession, it is one of my favorite stats to use for scoring efficiency and the formula I use is: Points/[(FTA/2.2)+FGA+Turnovers]

Top scorers at each position (factoring in points scored and efficiency)
PG: John Wall (17.7 pp36, 0.88 PPP, 0.51 FTA/FGA)
SG: James Anderson (23.2 pp36, 1.04 PPP, 0.50 FTA/FGA)
SF: Damion James (21.2 pp36, 1.02 PPP, 0.51 FTA/FGA)
PF: Ed Davis (16.5 pp36, 1.03 PPP, 0.65 FTA/FGA)
C: Artsiom Parakhouski (23.5 pp36, 1.21 PPP, 0.64 FTA/FGA)

Honorable mention:
Evan Turner (20.6 pp36, 0.91 PPP, 0.39 FTA/FGA)
DeMarcus Cousins (19.8 pp36, 0.96 PPP, 0.82 FTA/FGA)

Top playmakers at each position (factoring in assists and A:TO)
PG: Demetri McCamey (6.9 ap36, 1.93 A:TO)
SG: Evan Turner (5.6 ap36, 1.08 A:TO)
SF: Da'Sean Butler (3.1 ap36, 1.79 A:TO)
PF: Ekpe Udoh (2.5 ap36, 1.00 A:TO)
C: Greg Monroe (3.3 ap36, 1.06 A:TO)

Honorable mention:
John Wall (5.4 ap36, 1.22 A:TO)
Darington Hobson (4.4 ap36, 1.30 A:TO)

Top rebounders at each position
PG: Kemba Walker (4.4 rp36)
SG: Darington Hobson (10.2 rp36)
SF: Al-Farouq Aminu (11.6 rp36)
PF: Ed Davis (11.2 rp36)
C: DeMarcus Cousins (13.6 rp36)

Honorable Mention:
Evan Turner (8.6 rp36)
Derrick Favors (11.0 rp36)
Cole Aldrich (13.1 rp36)

Best defensive metrics at each position (steals + blocks)
PG: Kemba Walker (2.02 sp36, 0.46 bp36)
SG: Xavier Henry (1.83 sp36, 0.56 bp36)
SF: Chris Singleton (2.38 sp36, 1.64 bp36)
PF: John Henson (1.32 sp36, 3.97 bp36)
C: Hassan Whiteside (0.63 sp36, 5.43 bp36)

Honorable Mention:
Wesley Johnson (1.09 sp36, 1.87 bp36)
Al-Farouq Aminu (1.53 sp36, 1.62 bp36)

NBA Draft Big Board (March 22nd, 2010)

2010-03-22T17:07:00.001-05:00

My first new blog post is going to be my latest NBA big board. How I make my tiers is different than other places - I have flexible tiers where going down one tier (only one, however) is okay to make a selection when there is a position (or role) of much greater need which is available. This makes the ranking process more fluid, as there usually isn't a concrete talent separation between prospects.

I have a board going out to 70+, but since the draft is so far away, and I don't want to have clutter, I'm just going to list it out until my last tier hits 40. In the list, there are some players which I am fairly certain will not declare, however since nobody knows for certain who will or won't declare, I will not exclude them. I also have only included two international prospects, this is because I don't have nearly as much information on the players not in the NCAA, and the only two which get major pub on the websites and forums I visit are Vesely and Motiejunas.

Without further ado, here... we... go...

Tier 1:
1. John Wall

Tier 2:
2. Evan Turner

Tier 3:
3. Derrick Favors
4. DeMarcus Cousins

Tier 4:
5. Wesley Johnson

Tier 5:
6. Ed Davis
7. Greg Monroe
8. Cole Aldrich

Tier 6:
9. Hassan Whiteside
10. Xavier Henry
11. Devin Ebanks
12. Al-Farouq Aminu
13. Ekpe Udoh
14. Jan Vesely
15. Donatas Motiejunas

Tier 7:
16. John Henson
17. Paul George
18. Patrick Patterson
19. James Anderson

Tier 8:
20. Darington Hobson
21. Kemba Walker
22. Willie Warren
23. Damion James
24. Larry Sanders
25. Elias Harris
26. Luke Babbitt
27. Artsiom Parakhouski

Tier 9:
28. Avery Bradley
29. Eric Bledsoe
30. Quincy Pondexter
31. Stanley Robinson
32. Gordon Hayward
33. Craig Brackins

Tier 10:
34. Da’Sean Butler
35. Jerome Jordan
36. Solomon Alabi
37. Jarvis Varnado
38. Gani Lawal
39. Kyle Singler
40. Jordan Crawford
41. Jeff Taylor

Comments and feedback welcome.

Hassan Whiteside Writeup

2010-03-22T16:52:00.006-05:00

Hassan Whiteside - Fr. PF/C, Marshall

Per36min numbers against Quality Opponents (10 games):
16.8pts, 9.9rebs, 0.0asts, 0.6stls, 5.4blks, 3.5PFs, 2.3TOs
44.6 FG%, 33.3 3pt% (1/3), 68.1 FT%, .42 FTA/FGA

Standing 6’11 and weighing somewhere around 230 pounds with a mammoth wingspan, Whiteside is tailor-made for playing weakside defense and altering shots around the rim. He went in and smashed the old C-USA single-season blocks record of 143 blocks with 173 blocks of his own. Not only that, but he’s set to become the first freshman to lead the nation in blocks since Travis Williams in 1998-99, an extremely impressive feat.

As a player who will likely be asked to play Center for the majority of his minutes at the next level, Whiteside looks fluid when running the floor and has excellent lateral foot speed. He is a superb athlete for his size, even when taking into account that he’s not an explosive leaper. However, there is a flaw in his physical makeup: he is very weak. He is severely lacking lower body strength, and it is one of the main causes of his problems on both sides of the floor. While he has the frame to add weight, and was rumored to have gained 15-25 pounds last summer, I am skeptical that he will ever reach that 250-260 mark. Does he have to? Not really, but he’ll have to learn how to play against bigger Centers as a similar built player, Marcus Camby, did.

Defensively, he’s a game changer in the lane when it comes to guards or wings penetrating. Because of his lateral quickness, he can quickly get into position and use his pterodactyl-arms to block or alter many of the shot attempts in the lane. It’s scary how effective he is considering his timing isn’t at an elite level. The lateral quickness also allows him to be an effective pick and roll defender. He can easily help hedge screens and make it a seamless switch. He’s truly an elite prospect when it comes to help defense.

When it comes to man defense, it’s a different story. He simply gets overpowered in the post because of his lack of lower body strength and not knowing how to guard punishing post players. On occasion, he can make up for that due to his insane wingspan and quick feet, allowing him to get an angle to block/alter the shot even though he surrendered position. However, more often he’ll get bullied and looks like a boy guarding a man when players go straight at him. This sometimes causes him to pick up cheap fouls, which could be a concern when he goes up against large post players regularly.

On the boards, Whiteside also needs work, as his current style isn’t going to translate favorably to the NBA level against the bigger, stronger, more athletic competition. Right now he gets most of the boards he collects purely off length and athleticism… there is very little fundamental influence. It’s rare where I see him block out as Ed Davis or Derrick Favors do - two guys who could easily do the same thing and rely on athleticism to grab the boards in college games, but don’t because it’s a bad habit. However, the fact that he does hustle for rebounds on occasion is a good sign and makes me think he’s not a lost cause ala Ryan Hollins.

On offense, it’s a mixed bag. When it comes to scoring, he loves taking jumpers, and he’s not afraid to take them 16-20 feet out. He possesses a very smooth jumper for a guy that big, and it’s nearly unblockable even though it’s kind of a slow release. However, the downside is that he settles for jumpers way too often and frequently takes them early in the shot clock. He uses his jumper to set up the occasional drive where he shows off an adequate handle, and because he is usually going to be more athletic than his counterpart, this is an effective part of his game. This could really make him a dangerous pick-and-roll player.

In the post, as he’s basically incapable of being a physical player, so he snakes around players and has to use his adequate handle and length to put up shots which may easily be blocked at the NBA level. This adversely affects his efficiency, as he is not drawing contact and getting to the line as often as he needs to. Often he’ll be seen throwing up awkward flips and really just displaying how raw he is as a post player - though he shows shockingly good touch around the rim. However, because of his athleticism and length, he is able to finish with authority around the rim when he’s able to get position.

To sum up his offensive skills, there are times where he looks brilliant and unstoppable because of his physical gifts and surprising jumper. However, there are times where he basically looks to have zero BBIQ. This can be seen in his shot selection, where he frequently takes shots early in the shot clock; in his post game, where he shows immature post moves and forces up tough, low % shots; in the way he spaces the floor, where he commonly bunches up and allows one man to cover two or doesn’t get himself in good position to receive the ball. I think the most alarming thing, however, is how incapable he is to move the ball when he receives it. Zero assists in 10 quality opponent games is inexcusable. Nine assists in 851 minutes is despicable. When he attempts to pass, it’s usually off-target and/or too hard. He just doesn’t have the feel for a team game on the offensive side of the ball, and it’s very alarming when attempting to project him.

Overall, Whiteside is basically the epitome of a boom or bust player. He could be elite defensively and very useful offensively if he learns to hone his skills and add strength. Right now, however, he’s a pretty big negative on the offensive end when he is not very efficient (ranks last in Center PPP with a 0.88 and 0.42 FTA/FGA) and isn’t able to move the ball or correctly space the floor; while also susceptible to being posted up and abused defensively. I have him at a tentative 8th right now, but certain teams will be more willing to take a chance on this project hoping to strike gold and get a new-age Camby.

(Note: I had originally written this on March 13th, 2010; but I have updated the Quality Opponent stats)

James Anderson Writeup

2010-03-22T16:37:00.007-05:00

James Anderson - Jr. SG/SF, Oklahoma State

Per36min numbers against Quality Opponents (20 games):
23.2pts, 6.0rebs, 2.7asts, 1.4stls, 0.5blks, 2.9PFs, 2.7TOs
44.2 FG%, 36.0 3pt% (49/136), 82.4 FT%, .50 FTA/FGA

James Anderson is Mr. Offense for the Cowboys. He’s made slow, steady progress in both improving his body and his game the past two years at Oklahoma State, and while there are still some worries about how he’ll translate to the NBA level, he’s answered a lot of the questions people had about him his freshman year.

At 6’6, 220lbs with decent (not exceptional) length and good upper body strength, he has an NBA body for a SG. Athletically, he’s solid and he rarely tires. He’s not an explosive leaper, as you rarely see him dunk or get a lot of lift when he blocks the occasional shot, but he does possess great lateral quickness and has good straight-line speed.

A major limitation of Anderson’s on offense is the lack of good ball-handling skills, even though he’s improved over the past two years as being more comfortable with the ball. When he drives, he drives left roughly 85-90% of the time (even though he’s a right-handed shooter), and most of the time they are swooping drives from the right wing all the way to the left side of the hoop. He is comfortable going straight ahead, but not making quick cuts with the ball. Because of this, he’s most effective when he creates his offense before getting the ball. However, that’s not to say he can’t create his own offense in college, because he can basically do everything you need from a scoring standpoint but drive in a crowded lane and look comfortable going right… it’s more that he’s just an awesome catch-and-shoot player coming off screens, so he’s most deadly doing that.

His scoring skills outside of that are plentiful, and they’re very efficient as he leads the SG prospects I follow in scoring efficiency by a wide margin. He has deep, deep range and can hit shots with a hand in his face. He can stop and pop. In the post, he has good conversion rates on turnaround jumpers and can also spin and take it to the rim on occasion. He’s even hit a handful of high glass bank shots from 10-15 feet out. Finally, because all this, he occasionally utilizes shot fakes to get his man on his toes and then drives past them when there’s an open lane. Unfortunately, he’s not an explosive finisher, and will almost always lay it in instead of dunking - though he can use either hand. When there is room to drive, he’s good at seeking contact and getting himself to the line - where he’s a very good foul shooter for a SG and possesses a nice stroke.

Outside of scoring, he’s a relatively average or below average playmaker. He makes very questionable passes once or twice a game, sometimes passes that are not even close to the target. He also doesn’t possess good vision for a guard - or maybe he does see the passing lanes, but knows that his passing ability isn’t good enough to fit them in tight spaces. That’s not to say he’s a selfish player, because he moves the ball around well and only forces the issue sometimes - which is perfectly okay because that’s his role. He just isn’t very skilled when it comes to passing and therefore, when combined with his ball-handling troubles, would likely need to be on a team that shares the ball or has a ball-dominant PG.

On the other side of the floor, he does a good job pressuring his man on the perimeter, frequently being so locked in on staying with his man, that he often doesn’t help out on the weakside where there’s an opportunity. When he does help on the weakside, it’s usually when the ball isn’t on his side of the floor, so he can sag into the paint - and it’s there where he usually comes up with his blocks. Back to his man-defense, his good athleticism, strength, and lateral quickness are on display here, because he can easily stay with his man even if he’s active on the offensive end without the ball. While he doesn’t look to steal the ball and doesn’t have active hands in that sense, he does a good job at disrupting potential passing lanes by keeping his arms outstretched. Fundamentally, he’s come a long way from when he was a freshman, to where he’s a good college defender (often being on the other team’s best offensive backcourt player) and should be solid in the NBA.

When it comes to rebounding, he’s a kind of forgettable. He likes to mix it up and crash the boards offensively at times, but sometimes that leads to the opponents getting fast break opportunities. Defensively, he isn’t a strong rebounding guard and mainly just gets his boards by being in the right place at the right time, and occasionally being aggressive.

Overall, those who have followed him since his freshman season can see the improvement he’s made in his all-around game. Hopefully, he’ll be able to continue to improve his handle, because otherwise he’s going to be fairly limited offensively in the pros as a SG who gets most of his offense created for him. The upside is there to be a #2 scorer in the NBA, though he’s more likely destined to be a forgettable fringe starting SG. I currently have him 16th and he’ll likely hold steady there unless he really turns it up come tournament time.

(Note: I had originally written this on February 25th, 2010; but I have since updated the Quality Opponent stats)

Ekpe Udoh Writeup

2010-03-22T16:33:00.014-05:00

Ekpe Udoh - Jr. PF/C, Baylor

Per36min numbers against Quality Opponents (24 games):
13.3pts, 9.0rebs, 2.5asts, 0.8stls, 3.0blks, 2.7PFs, 2.6TOs
47.3 FG%, 31.6 3pt% (6/19), 68.5 FT%, .37 FTA/FGA

At 6’10, 240lbs, Udoh has an incredible frame with extremely long arms and wide shoulders. While he’s not skinny, he looks to be able to add even more muscle on his frame as right now he looks like Dwight Howard did when he came into the league. However, at nearly 23 years of age, maybe he’s just going to stay at this size and thus be far more adept at playing PF with only spot minutes at C.

Udoh is a fluid runner and moves around the court like a SF. He possesses great lateral footspeed which allows him to look comfortable on the perimeter on either end. As far as jumping, even though he appears like he’d be able to get up high, he’s not an explosive leaper but rather just looks relatively normal. He is, however, quick off the ground which can be seen defensively.

When it comes to scoring, he is versatile, but still somewhat raw in all areas.

He looks more comfortable when he puts the ball on the floor and drives to the rim. Even though you’d expect him to dunk quite often given his size, he often prefers to lay it in and can do so with either hand. Even though he’s going at the rim, he almost seems passive when he drives because he’s not attacking it. A problem I see for the future is that when he dribbles he keeps the ball very high, which makes it an easy target for defenders to come in and knock it away - and while this doesn’t happen often at the college level, it almost assuredly will in the NBA.

Udoh also possesses a decent jumper. He can off catch and shoot situations or create for himself off the dribble. In either scenario, he looks to have a slow release and doesn’t exactly look fluid, but it’s more reliable than is seen out of most PF/C prospects. I don’t know if he has NBA 3pt range, because in the rare times he does take a 3, it’s pretty much on the line… but maybe he can extend his range since he does shoot a lot of mid-range jumpers (likely a third of his shot attempts) and converts a good amount of them.

Finally, he’s relatively raw in the post, but he’s kind of effective with what he’s got. First off, he’s unable to get deep position or back guys down as he needs to because of lack of lower body strength. When he does get position - most often against smaller PFs - he most often relies on spinning away from the hoop and then shooting face-up jumpers or hooks - forcing them up at times. Rarely do I see him spinning towards the hoop by using a drop step and I’ve never seen him attempt an up-and-under.

Because of his style, he doesn’t get to the FT line very often. That’s probably a good thing, as his FT stroke doesn’t look very pretty - he doesn’t use his legs at all and his motion looks too slow and unnatural.

Passing is a strength of his, but not without flaws. He possesses good court awareness and can find cutters in the lane as well as guys who are open cross court. As I said previously, he looks comfortable on the perimeter, so Baylor sometimes utilizes him to initiate offense at the top of the key and he can be seen making one or two nice passes a game. However, with the good comes the bad. He often makes risky passes and whips the ball to his teammates at near-uncatchable speeds way too often. That being said, outside of Monroe he’s the best playmaking big and probably only one of four which I think have talent in this area.

Rebounding, on the other hand, I do not view as one of his strengths. While not an awful by any stretch, he’s not a good fundamental rebounder and is often sloppy on boxouts not getting his full body into the opposing player or using his arms effectively. He also rarely goes to find players to box out. His lack of strength is apparent here, and he plays smaller than he is on the inside (also apparent when he sets screens offensively). However, Udoh gets by in the rebounding department because of his athleticism, elite length, and hustle - the last of which nets him many offensive rebounds.

Finally, I come to his strength: defense. His weakside defense is spectacular. He quick off his feet and has pretty good timing on blocks, while also altering many shots because of his length - however at times he is aggressive in leaving his feet before the shot attempt, though in those situations he still avoids fouling. Because he possesses great lateral footspeed, he is able to quickly move within the paint and on the perimeter to rotate and get into position to help.

He does play a lot of 2-3 zone, but because he’s a big there are times he plays in situations where it’s pretty much man defense, so I’m not as worried about him translating to an NBA scheme. When playing man in the post, he absorbs contact and keeps arms high to block shots, but frequently gives up room due to lack of strength. I don’t know how much that matters, because in my opinion he makes up for that with the amount of alterations he causes. Also within the 2-3 zone, we can see how well he moves on the perimeter and how quick he is to come out and defend an open shooter. Truly is impressive on this end of the court.

Overall, I had him #13 last week and I’d imagine I will keep him around that range for the rest of the season. His combination of defense, athleticism, length, and ability to improve offensively makes him a tantalizing prospect; and even though he’ll be 23 in a few months I still think he’s going to keep improving and has nice potential.

(Note: I had originally posted this February 20th, 2010; but I have since updated the Quality Opponent stats)